Welcome back, reader!
The Gameweek 9 deadline is approaching, so I’m here with another set of stories you need to hear to stay two steps ahead.
Few things feel better than being early in FPL. People are wildcarding into players already on your team for 3 GWs, while you have a few other transfers lined up that will eventually become template, keeping you constantly ahead of the curve.
Lately, I’ve been closely monitoring the fitness of Jack Hinshelwood (£5.9m) and Eli Junior Kroupi (£7.3m), who are obvious targets. Those two aren’t exactly rocket science, but it will still take time for the wider manager pool to catch up.
Things look good for the former.
After playing 68 minutes in the Conference League and getting a second-half run against Liverpool in the league, he managed 77 minutes against Manchester City in the midweek cup game.
His first start looks imminent. If it doesn’t happen this Gameweek, I can imagine it will by GW10 at the latest.
When Junior Kroupi got just 10 minutes against Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup, it was clear he would continue to be eased back very carefully.
Which makes sense.
❗ The team works well, the depth is good, and he’s a player with undeniable X-factor, which you don’t want to lose again. We likely need to wait until after the international break (IB will happen after GW10).
This is annoying for us on Bournemouth double-ups, especially the Tavernier + Silva (or Hill) one. Completing the triple-up is awkward because it requires so many transfers if you’re aiming for Kroupi.
If you opt for a second defender, that’s one transfer. Then you need to sell him or your current MID to get Kroupi. Getting Evanilson poses the same problem. And even if you opt for someone like Rayan (£7.3m), you can’t do it in one move unless you have a lot of money in the bank, because Kroupi costs £7.3 million.
Also, given their fixture run, you might do it at a super awkward moment, switching between players with good fixtures.
Anyway, Rayan finally scored last week.
As expected:
You can read the “all you need to know about Bournemouth” article here:
Liverpool: Are there future bandwagons in the making?
Those are Liverpool days on the Data Dribble.
Earlier this week, we discussed how:
Iraola has been gradually improving their defence, and even though they faced Brighton, Bournemouth, Manchester City and Bournemouth in the last four games, most of their key metrics looked fantastic
They improved their set-piece defending
They still need to work on their transitional threat, which is pretty low, meaning they are only a mid-table Premier League attack
Alexander Isak consistently puts in great performances
The missing piece in that puzzle is how the players around Isak are evolving. I mentioned hints here and there, namely that Florian Wirtz struggled early in the season.
So, let’s review him and others.
If all of Liverpool’s players are in their peak form, it would create dynamics that are hard to face:
Alexander Isak (£9.1m)
Bradley Barcola (£8.1m)
Cody Gakpo (£7.1m)
Florian Wirtz (£7.2m)
Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.7m)
… and an okay-ish depth in Víctor Muñoz (£6.5m), Rio Ngumoha (£5.7m), Lewis Koumas (£5.0m), plus Hugo Ekitiké (£7.4m) at some point in the still distant future.
Sure, that team could use one more world-class player, and maybe someone at their peak age on the bench, but it’s still a pretty solid attacking line-up.
Let’s start with Florian Wirtz (£7.2m).
For me, it’s one of the biggest disappointments of the season.
He struggled to adapt to Premier League football last season, but once late November hit, his performances skyrocketed. That 2-month, 12-game period up until February was the best in Liverpool’s colours.
💡 He was amazing in every phase of play, creating constant threat in the build-up and final third, playing smart, creative passes, receiving in good positions, scoring from great positions, and even doing his fair share in defence.
He began to look like a complete package.
Shortly after, he missed Gameweeks 27, 28, and 29 with an injury, then declined sharply for the rest of the season, even being dropped from the starting eleven towards the end of the season.
What’s happening now?
He’s far from elite Premier League wingers and #10s in terms of the threat he creates with his runs and passes, according to goal probability added metrics, which is always a signal that something is off, even with a sample of 8 games
He’s only about average in expected goals: his shot volume is fine, and most attempts are inside the box, but the majority are poor, hurried, blocked attempts.