And we’re back!
Also, Junior Kroupi will be back soon, which should be a big deal for us FPL managers. One section of this article is basically a love letter, but a very analytical one – I’ll explain in detail why he is so unique.
And why you should care.
Oh, in case they unplug you from the internet, Bukayo Saka is injured, so we need to talk about it.
Let’s do this.
Bournemouth: Are they still the great unknown?
Historically, Brighton and Bournemouth are my two favourite teams to talk about.
We covered Brighton extensively in Tuesday’s article, so now’s the time to pick some Cherries. Looking at their fixtures, it’s entirely possible you might buy some of their players soon and hold them for about forever:
The first question(s) we need to ask ourselves: are we getting ahead of ourselves? Does this look better on paper than it really is?
By that, I don’t necessarily mean analysing upcoming match-ups, but rather looking at how the team performed over those opening 7 Gameweeks. During the pre-season, I called them a “great unknown” because there was too much uncertainty around Marco Rose, and they had to endure a tricky run of fixtures early on.
However, now is a good time to revisit.
If you read my Wildcard 7 guide, you know I hopped on Marcus Tavernier (£6.2m) and António Silva (£5.0m) early, which signals I’m bullish.
Even though I didn’t know what to expect from Rose after his one-year hiatus, they are ranked 4th in non-penalty expected points, behind only Arsenal, Brighton, and Manchester City. And 2nd over the last five games.
Something’s clearly working early on.
Consider me interested.
Rose’s trademark in the Bundesliga was intense counter-pressing (which ultimately proved his downfall), direct forward play, and fast transitions.
That sounds exactly like Bournemouth this season so far. Rose doesn’t try to be a new version of himself, but rather… a better version of himself. And it makes sense, because he inherited Iraola’s physically well-prepared side. Bournemouth's management probably had this plan all along.
Right now, nobody does pressing and counter-pressing better than Fabian Hürzeler’s side. However, Marco Rose doesn’t want to fall behind. Models rank Bournemouth 2nd for effectiveness in both. Put simply, opponents struggle to retain possession once they win the ball in their own half. Jürgen Klopp’s legacy is strong with those two.
When Bournemouth win the ball back, they know what to do with it. They rank 1st in shots per game after winning the ball high, and 3rd in expected goals from those situations.
They also launched the 3rd-most counterattacks, behind only Manchester United and Aston Villa. With the highest xG from those transitions…
They play a high defensive block, and as those stats suggest, they are very direct on the ball, making few passes per possession and trying to get shots quickly. At the same time, they can change the tempo, and they can still create against settled blocks.
One thing that stands out to me is that opponents struggle to attack when Bournemouth are defending deep. They struggle to progress with passes, and when they try to play over, Bournemouth have a high success rate in the air. If they lose the initial duel, they win second balls at a high rate. They have players who can recover the ball and win aerials.
💡 All of this signals to me that they are on the right path, and I want to invest in their players, especially with the upcoming fixtures.
Another positive is how well the Cherries adapt to the current Premier League set-piece meta, which further increases their appeal.
They are ranked:
5th for xG created from set pieces (however, scoring just 1 goal from 3+ xG)
6th for xG allowed from set pieces
2nd for corner efficiency
1st for corner xG
We should start seeing more set-piece goals soon.
Their xPoints numbers come from good quality on both ends of the pitch: 3rd in non-penalty xG and 2nd in xG allowed.
They also rank top 5 in xG per shot and xG per shot allowed.
Now that we have established the basics, there are some players to look at.
And let’s start with none other than this young fella who took the Premier League by storm last season.