Welcome back, reader!
Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d’Or. As a Spurs fan, seeing this feels special and brings back loads of great memories.
Do you know what else was special?
Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, Maxim De Cuyper and Pascal Groß combining for one point.
Should you carry any memories of it? No. It’s a new gameweek now, and in the bigger picture, it didn’t matter.
Let’s get into some proper stuff.
Gameweek 8 review: Bournemouth’s stack came in clutch
Interesting one.
With all that chaos unfolding, I see the 4-point red as a win:
The most frustrating event was Bobby Thomas (£4m) being subbed off with an injury during a good run of fixtures, and that it happened in the 59th minute when the score was 0:0.
João Pedro (£7.9m) missing the Spurs game and the knock-on effect on Cole Palmer (£9.8m) affected many of us, and we all knew Calafiori would be benched at some point this season. He ended a game with a minor issue, but the latest reports suggest he should be fine for next weekend.
Pascal Groß’s (£6.2m) own goal and Palmer’s red card? Again, it’s out of your control, so it doesn’t make sense to whine about it.
On deadline day, knowing António Silva (£5.0m) could make my starting eleven, I decided not to hedge with Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m), and Bournemouth’s stack fortunately delivered. I investigated that match-up in last week’s Thought Process, noting that models and markets seem to be overestimating United’s chances, so I’m glad it panned out.
Otherwise, it could be a very bleak Gameweek rank-wise. I further elaborated on last week’s transfer inside the Q&A:
Dealing with injuries
Despite having 3 free transfers and £1 million in the bank, Gameweek 9 could be tricky to navigate:
João Pedro’s and Bobby Thomas’s injuries are extremely annoying:
1️⃣ I needed to start them because of how the fixtures for the rest of my team look
2️⃣ I expected them to do well in their match-ups, given positional weaknesses, how teams create chances, and how their opponents cope with them (in this case, they don't), as well as injuries and other factors
So, let’s expect the worst and bench both of them in my bus team.
The most likely move is to swap Pedro (confirmed out for several weeks) for one of the many viable FWD options, which is something I’ll discuss later in the article. Thierno Barry (£5.6m), Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m), Evanilson (£6.2m), Alexander Isak (£9.1m), and others included.
As I hinted, there are other positions that don’t look too favourable:
Arsenal face Liverpool: A difficult fixture, along with some uncertainty over Riccardo Calafiori, which makes me ponder how I want to tackle their stack going forward
Brighton plays Manchester City away. However, once this fixture is out of the way, there’s a run of BRE, hul, NEW, bou, nfo, EVE, IPS, ful
People on social media say Bournemouth vs Leeds is hard to predict (so we’ll try to predict it)… and I may hedge it, as I own both DCL and Silva/Tavernier. Injuries have somewhat tied my hands, and I’d like to save some FTs before Christmas
Palmer and Rogers – Chelsea have struggled to create chances lately, and it sounds like JP is out until at least GW11
Predicted expected goals difference over the next 7 GWs according to the Solio Analytics model
💡 This is exactly a week when a proper match-up analysis comes in handy, because you need to:
a) make the correct benching decisions
… and
b) decide whether (and how many) transfers you need to make
So today's main theme is clear: match-up analysis, potential replacements for Pedro, and general problem-solving.
Let’s do this.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: What does it mean for your picks?
Last week, I wrote a deep dive focused largely on Bournemouth, which had already done most of the heavy lifting.
As I don’t want to recycle the content, I recommend you read at least the first section to get a general idea of their current performance:
Now, I own three players from that game: Marcus Tavernier (£6.4m), António Silva (£5.0m), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.1m).
I won’t bench any of the Cherries’ guys. Not only am I bullish on Rose’s team and those players, but it’s also not feasible given the depth of my own squad.
However, you might be wondering whether this is a good entry point for BOU picks, or whether it’s better to wait.
One factor to consider before we start the analysis is that Junior Kroupi (£7.3m) was subbed on in the 87th minute last weekend despite the favourable game state, which means he’s still not an FPL pick in Gameweek 9 and might not even be in Gameweek 10. The period after the IB seems much more realistic for now.
Alright – how strong is Leeds’ team?
They rank 10th in OPTA’s expected points and are competitive on both ends of the pitch. The most interesting developments are happening in the defence:
6th for xG conceded: Early in the season, they allowed many good chances to Brighton and Brentford, and they also had a poor showing against Arsenal (2 huge chances conceded). In the five remaining clashes, however, they looked solid.
5th for xG per shot conceded: They are great at forcing their opponents into low-value attempts from outside the box. Only Coventry and Newcastle have faced more of these, but in their case, it’s because they face a humongous volume of shots rather than any defensive prowess. Also, Leeds have something others don’t…
6 goals conceded from 10.50 expected. Part of it is luck, part is opponents’ finishing woes, but much of it is down to James Trafford (£5.0m).
A few months ago, I highlighted his arrival as one of the best summer transfers, and he hasn’t disappointed since: his shot-stopping is elite. He and Verbruggen look amazing. Once again.
They have an amazing rest defence, and conceded very few good shots from fast transitions. In fact, they conceded most of their goals while defending in a settled block.
But they also have weaknesses: Leeds struggle to defend when gegen-pressed, allowing a ton of dangerous shots. Bournemouth, with their rock-and-roll style, could punish them. They’re also ranked 13th in xG conceded from set pieces, while Bournemouth are ranked 5th in xG created from them…
Perhaps surprisingly, Leeds have one of the worst success rates in defensive aerials in the Premier League, and crossing is a good strategy against them. However, Bournemouth aren’t a team that would exploit that weakness effectively. Despite being dangerous from set pieces, their final-third strategy doesn’t revolve around crossing. Quite the contrary.
This only confirms that even though this isn’t an easy fixture for Bournemouth, they have means to harm Leeds.
You can check those sharp marker projected goals for free
What about the Dominic Calvert-Lewin and António Silva hedge?
It’s not the worst time to do that. Leeds will cross a lot against Bournemouth, and Silva will likely rack up headers and clearances. You see plenty of second-ball duels in their games. Plus, it’s not a bad set-piece matchup. Even if Cherries don’t keep a clean sheet, Silva could still get solid points.
As for DCL, his scoring chances are hard to predict. While Leeds struggle against headers in their defensive third, they are great at winning them in the final third and are also currently ranked #1 for set-piece xG. However, Bournemouth are solid in the air, though they have conceded some set-piece goals. Not great, not terrible.
Positional weaknesses – nothing major I’d be comfortable highlighting at this point in the season.
In a nutshell: I don’t mind buying Bournemouth players as soon as this week if you need to replace your other picks and you’re eyeing them anyway. It’s not an ideal entry point for Leeds’ assets, but the next gameweek isn’t especially attractive either…
Let’s proceed to Brighton and City.