Florian Wirtz and inside-the-box havoc 🧵

Florian Wirtz, patience, and a goalkeeper unicorn

Social media is a dark place this week.

There’s an endless stream of sickening news about the Epstein files, and, to make things worse, people on FPL 𝕏 have started calling for ‘attacking contributions‘ to be added alongside DEFCONs.

Look, I can take a lot, but enough is enough.

Let’s dive into two feel-good stories to restore your faith in humanity.

Florian Wirtz and waiting for good things

I have a confession to make—I was among those who hyped Florian Wirtz during the pre-season, only to watch him struggle for several months afterwards.

I simply underestimated how quickly he’d adapt to Premier League football during the period when Liverpool were fighting their inner demons, finding their rhythm, and facing a fair share of bad luck. At the same time, this was probably the worst possible outcome, and the chances of him having a solid floor from the get-go were pretty high.

About half a year later, he’s finally the version of himself I was so keen on.

Actually, for quite some time now.

Since the end of November, he’s firmly among the very best Premier League midfielders.

He dominates advanced goal probability added models that measure how his touches with the ball influence the team’s likelihood of scoring (and of not conceding). He shows the passing ability you’d expect from him before the season.

All those passes from both half-spaces and through-balls when launching counters are what you’d expect from him. However, his distribution inside the box is what really made him a value in FPL. While the average Premier League midfielder has about 40% accuracy in the box, Wirtz is at 70%…

And while Mohamed Salah (or Antoine Semenyo—those who watched recent games will agree) still struggles to complete his 1-on-1, Wirtz’s dribbling is a joy to watch. The same goes for his long-distance carrying.

It was clear that the moment he started arriving in good goal-scoring positions, he’d become an FPL option. And he did. Since last November’s gameweek (GW13), he has taken 23 shots, generated almost 4 xG, and scored 4 goals. The good news is that he took 74% of those shots inside the box, mostly centrally.

Here’s his shot map across the season:

Source: theanalyst.com

Although he’s not taking set pieces, he has a high volume of open-play passes into the box, many of which lead directly to a shot.

I often praise his intelligence, and I’ll say it again: at the moment, there’s probably no midfielder who can find such good pockets of space to receive the ball.

When you watch Liverpool next time, focus on this.

It’s a symphony.

Oh, and he’s still only 22…

Regarding FPL, there’s no issue with his performances or the upcoming fixtures; rather, he’s difficult to fit into many structures, as he’s priced at £8.3 million (and still in just 13.7% of teams when I write this).

There are Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo/Matheus Cunha, or Antoine Semenyo (a bit of caution needed here). It’s also hard to snub Enzo and Rice.

But he’ll continue to tick along:

I love storytelling and… good stories.

This one certainly is.

You might also like:

What makes Florian Wirtz special, and how does Mohamed Salah fit into that?

Stefan Ortega: The unicorn

There were definitely some interesting deals in the Premier League during the winter transfer window, and I discussed some of them here on Data Dribble, like Jørgen Strand Larsen and Rayan last week, or the new West Ham strikers before that.

Manchester City were active, signing both Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi while sending Oscar Bobb to Fulham.

Liverpool have spent £60 million on a 20-year-old centre-back, Jeremy Jacquet, from Stade Rennais. 

Some familiar faces, like Tammy Abraham, Pascal Gross, or Douglas Luiz, are back in the Premier League.

And Wolves assembled a new boy band called “The Gomes Four”.

But let me tell you, Tuesday’s deadline day was a huge letdown. I’d expected a little more in a World Cup year.

Despite that, one caught my eye…

If you read my content regularly, you’ve probably already heard me say that goalkeepers are the most unpredictable players of all. You never know when the bad, and I mean really bad, season hits them. Like Djordje Petrovič, who can be the best shot-stopper in Ligue 1 one season, but then be unable to save a shot travelling at 4 miles per hour in the Premier League the season after. And many more of them. It happens to most of them across all the European leagues.

Stefan Ortega is different.

He didn’t play much over the last three seasons, totalling about 2,300 minutes for Manchester City, but he was great in most games. Heung-Min Son would agree:

When it comes to shot-stopping, his 5-season spell at Arminia Bielefeld was full of fantastic performances. In one or two seasons, he was closer to average than world-class, but there wasn’t a single poor season.

If anyone here remembers his time at TSV 1860 München, feel free to let me know.

Now he’s Nottingham Forest’s keeper, joining them until the end of the season, and Matz Sels is doubtful… What if Ortega starts this week and then keeps starting for the rest of the season?

Sure, he’s 33 years old and hasn’t played a competitive game for quite some time, but he’s Stefan Ortega.

The unicorn.

I’m kinda rooting for him.

Earlier this week, I delved into Double Gameweek 26.

Although the boring version of it happened, there’s still so much to uncover about Arsenal:

• Is Jurriën Timber worth it?

• Triple Arsenal defence or Declan Rice?

• How did Rice become the 3rd-highest-scoring MID, and is that sustainable?

• And much more!

BONUS: As I analysed both scenarios, there’s a substantial section covering Chelsea, Everton, Leeds, and Bournemouth. The kind of information you won’t find anywhere else, and it will help you in FPL or sports betting. And I mean it.

In the latest edition of the Thought Process series, I discussed other nuances of handling Arsenal, Elliot Anderson quietly racking up points, and, foremost:

❗ Mbeumo vs Cunha, and one thing most people overlook.

See you next week!