🧵 Brennan unchained, and West Ham just did that thing again

A transfer edition

Happy New Year, folks! 🎉

Two goals in four games on that Thursday matchday weren’t the most exciting start to 2026, but at least the Premier League winter transfer window is now open (and some predict it will be a crazy one!), which can only mean one thing.

We can, and will, discuss the latest news.

Of course, with added FPL context.

Brennan is finally free

This was a rather calm New Year’s Eve—exactly one beer, in bed by 1 a.m., like a responsible adult. My 20-year-old self would be horrified.

I still had to rub my eyes three times after waking up and ask whether I’d been on the piss last night, because some weird stuff was going on.

Enzo Maresca is gone.

Pascal Gross is returning to Brighton.

And Brennan Johnson is reportedly close to completing a £34m move from Tottenham to Crystal Palace. Several hours later, it truly happened:

And it feels personal.

As a Spurs fan, I always defended the player. Sure, he isn’t a flashy dribbler who can take several players 1-1 in a single spell of possession, nor a creative mastermind, and he only does a few things on the pitch. But he does them well.

He can draw the ball forward and score goals. He was even the Spurs’ top goal-scorer in 24/25.

In terms of FPL, this should be a transfer with immediate impact—Johnson will slot straight in and do what he does best, costing just £6.5m. He will play for a team ranked 6th in the expected points table, soon to enter a favourable run of fixtures.

source: fotmob.com

Last season, he averaged 2.20 shots, 0.39 xG, and 0.36 post-shot xG per 90 minutes, totalling 54 shots in the Premier League—all from inside the box, with a huge chunk centrally and 14 from the 6-yard box.

When Palace win possession, they move the ball upfield the fastest in the Premier League, and they are ranked 4th for xG created from counterattacks this season.

They know why they target Johnson.

Give him confidence, and he’ll deliver.

West Ham and new strikers: Will this work this time?

West Ham are like those people who keep ignoring the same red flags when dating, then wonder why it ends up exactly the same as last time.

And then do it again.

And fail again.

Transfer influencer Fabrizio Romano told us the Hammers finalised the €29 million deal for Lazio’s former #9, Taty Castellanos. He’s 27, so if he doesn’t start scoring, they’re stuck with another player with no resale value. Sure, if he does, they won’t care. But will he?

Former New York City striker has 3.5 seasons in top-5 leagues under his belt. He began his European journey at Girona, where he played nearly 2,800 minutes and scored 13 goals in his debut season. Good activity in the box, ability to receive in dangerous areas, shot volume in the 95th percentile, and non-penalty xG close to the 90th.

He was a bit unlucky in front of goal during his first Lazio campaign, but, once again, looked like a solid striker and continued to do so until his Premier League move.

He also tends to drop deep and drive the ball forward a lot. The byproduct of this was some not-too-sensible shots from deep. When you account for him underperforming his xG, it was sometimes frustrating to watch for Lazio fans.

This is the type of transfer you want to make in the summer to give a player a full pre-season.

Castellanos now finds himself in a tricky situation, needing to start performing immediately for a team involved in a relegation battle while adapting to Premier League football. Even proven players have struggled this season.

West Ham are also reportedly closing in on a deal for Pablo with Gil Vicente. He’s 22, which is good news. However…

He looked average at best across almost all key attacking metrics and scored 13 goals from, ehm, 5.50 xG. It’s a gamble, and if it works, it’s for the future, not an immediate game-changer. It’s also another €23 million spent.

The silver lining of those two transfers for FPL managers is that Jarrod Bowen will have more playing time in his best position. Good timing, as West Ham’s fixtures look great over the next eight gameweeks, provided you want to go there.

Data Crime of the Week

It’s time for another all-time classic that keeps appearing regularly on FPL 𝕏 but can leave you confused.

Let’s rephrase it:

Before Gameweek 20, these are the players who perform magnificently:

Chris P. Bacon - 12 npxGI
Justin Case - 11 npxGI
Robyn Banks - 9 npxGI
Ben Dover - 8 npxGI
Noah Fence - 8 npxGI
Neil Down - 7 npxGI

They are using non-penalty xG, which is praiseworthy.

But I don’t know whether Chris’ 12 npxGI is made up of 9 xG and 3 xA, or the other way around.

You’re getting different amounts of points for a goal and an assist in FPL, so it makes quite a difference.

If you also mix midfielders and strikers (god forbid defenders), who score differently for a goal, it’s becoming a proper mess.

In the free part of this week’s first deep dive, I was banging the drum about Rubén Amorim finally playing back 4 from the start.

Almost too good to be true…

Well, you know how that turned out. Neither fans nor Dorgu (Dalot, Cunha…) owners were happy:

The rest of the article includes:

• Whether you should succumb to solvers recommending Szoboszlai

• Why you should probably forget about Elliot Anderson

• There’s one Newcastle player who dominates

• Cherki’s doing what was predicted

• When to buy Gabriel

• One wild Arsenal stat

As a premium member, you’re getting 2 weekly deep dives, my 10-hour weekly Q&A sessions (sometimes two), access to the Discord community, and exclusive pre-season content.

See you next week!