You still don't understand Savinho

What will Savinho and Marmoush unlock for Spurs?

One thing I can’t stand is injustice.

I struggle to understand the constant stick Savinho gets, while plenty of overrated Premier League players are praised to the skies for no reason. I’m looking at you, Kobbie Mainoo (though there are others too, and it’s obviously not his fault).

I also hate how these stupid narratives are built.

So I rage-wrote this piece.

Let’s set things right and encourage you not to simply take other people’s opinions at face value without thinking them through.

I’ll show you why Savinho (£6.5m MID) is great and exactly what the Spurs need right now. I’ll also throw Omar Marmoush (£7.0m FWD) into the mix.

How it all started

Manchester City signed Savinho for the 2024/2025 season after his successful spell at Girona. In his first-ever season in the top five leagues, the Brazilian, then only 19, instantly ranked among La Liga’s best creative wingers.

As Ian Graham says, always look at the goal probability added metrics first to see how players’ touches with the ball increase the team’s chances of scoring a goal (and, at the same time, reduce the likelihood of conceding). It’s an advanced metric that reflects a player’s real contribution to the team, rather than measuring the final product in isolation. But the output is usually there in some form.

Savinho was ranked in the 95th percentile for passes and about the same for carrying. That’s extraordinary in a debut season for a guy this young, who still needed to adapt.

He was a great player to watch, attempting 7 dribbles per game with a solid success rate for that volume – and those dribbles (and runs) weren’t just Mohammed Kudus and Randal Kolo Muani-type dribbles.

They were more of a Jérémy Doku type.

Meaning, they actually created chances for his team.

Source: Scout Lab

Savinho posted 0.30 expected assists and 0.28 actual assists per 90 minutes. Again, only 5% of other players in the top 5 leagues fared better.

Girona were a team with the 3rd-highest possession percentage in La Liga, only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. They were slow to move the ball upfield, took time to create chances, and constantly tried to put opponents under sustained pressure, with the 3rd most passes per possession, again only behind Real and Barcelona.

They created a ton of chances from those attacks, not only thanks to Sávio (that’s how he wants to be called, so let’s switch now) but also to Viktor Tsygankov and a duo of super-creative fullbacks.

Sávio’s trademark way to create chances was by crossing from wide areas, but he also made a huge number of cutbacks and other short, low passes after arriving in the box. His deep crosses were also excellent.

All of these types of passes were of the utmost quality from an analytical view, not just from the eye test.

💡 For example, he played 3 times as many cutbacks as an average La Liga winger, and those passes created almost 2 times as much threat.

The Brazilian was much more of a creator than a goal-scorer, yet he had his best finishing season. Even with just 1.25 shots and 0.16 xG per 90, he scored 9 goals.

There weren’t too many poor shots from outside the box or from very wide angles. The positions were central, but the volume was simply low.

source: fotmob.com

This suggests he can do it – it’s just that his creative duties were much heavier. It’s not me saying he should transform into a goal-scoring winger, because his chance creation is where the value lies. But if needed, he can become more of a dual threat, with a tilt towards the creative side.

The funny thing is, he also performed well defensively, winning a lot of balls thanks to his strong tackling and ability to read the game, while staying disciplined.

Alright, this should give you a good idea of the type of player Sávio is and that he arguably deserves more respect than most are willing to give.

At Manchester City, he adapted instantly

At Manchester City, he played 1,926 minutes in his debut season and, once again, ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED all goal probability added metrics, while posting 0.28 xA and 0.37 assists per 90, finishing the season with 8 assists.

Again, these are absolutely elite numbers for a 20-year-old in his first Premier League season. ❗

You need to realise how rare it is for a player who is a) that young and b) still adapting to the most demanding league in the world to start producing right away. Sure, he played for a dominant side, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the norm.

Yes, producing 2.50 shots per game and scoring just one goal from 55 shots, while missing many great chances, is frustrating to watch, but you can’t simply ignore his creative influence.

Football fans have very short memories and only remember the previous season, during which he was influential in the build-up once again, but unfortunately, it didn’t translate into the final product.

However, Sávio is now a nailed-on starter at Spurs under Roberto De Zerbi, who just loves, loves his creative players to play with the ball. His new winger is an absolute game-changer for him.

Once the transfer was agreed, he probably went home, opened a bottle of expensive wine, made love to his wife, and slept like a baby for 12 hours.

The hallmark of De Zerbi’s team is high possession, many passes in a single spell, and avoiding rushed attacks. Unlock that sturdy low block when the time is right. Does this ring a bell?

Given all those injuries, late returns from holidays, and many new players, it will take time to click and gel. Sávio might lack that final product at first, and you’ll say “ha, I told you so”.

I don’t care.

He’s a player with X-factor, and it will show, eventually.

Earlier this pre-season, I wrote a deep dive on how Spurs lacked central progression and creativity, and that Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali alone won’t solve the issue. Much more was needed. And it’s happening now with Sávio (and Marmoush).

If you build a wall, you still need a roof.

Omar Marmoush joins: Will the new deadly duo form?

Alright.

Spurs are reportedly close to announcing the signing of Omar Marmoush (£7.0m).

He played just about 2,000 minutes for City over the last two seasons. Although some of his numbers are influenced by game state, he almost never disappointed, serving as a dual threat and producing elite output across the striker, left-winger, and attacking-midfield roles.

In the end, it was 3 non-penalty shots, 0.34 non-penalty xG, and 0.20 xA p90, with almost every other important underlying metric in the highly above-average percentile range.

This limited playing time resulted in 10 goals and 3 assists.

Simply put, Marmoush is someone who can consistently arrive in the box to take good shots or distribute to his teammates (heavily skewed towards scoring goals).

He did it in Germany and in England, and he signs at his peak age. Sure, he doesn’t have a resale value like Sávio, who’s still just 22, but he’s an instant upgrade who can produce right away (as is Sávio).

💡 One amazing stat for you: during his first Manchester City season, Sávio directly created 3.50 xG-worth of chances for Erling Haaland.

It may not seem like much, but it is.

In fact, no other player that season created more for the robot…

The fact that they cost £150 million in total?

So be it.

That’s how the market works now.

Both address the specific problems in the Spurs’ squad.

And if you’re a Spurs fan still annoyed by the decision to buy Sávio, at this point, I can’t help you.

Spurs and FPL

Sávio’s signing hits even harder given the doubts over James Maddison’s availability. He spent 20 minutes on the pitch in Gameweek 1 but is apparently out again with a shoulder injury.

I’m rooting so hard for Madders and want to see him play, because our new, physically imposing midfield of Fernandes and Tonali would make up for some of the lost pace, but man… this is going to take time.

Same as with Xavi Simons or Dejan Kulusevski. None of Mohammed Kudus, Mathys Tel, Mikey Moore, or Wilson Odobert can reliably carry the team at this point in their careers, and Richarlison might leave this window.

Hopefully, another attacking signing (Gakpo?) is on the way.

In FPL, there’s no need to rush things.

Not that anyone would be thinking of rushing after that Brentford game, right?

But once everyone’s back, with Sávio and Marmoush somewhat settled, you’ll see the new dynamics start to form. When/if it clicks, good things might happen – those two new signings, along with Fernandes, Tonali, Porro, Van De Ven, Van Hecke, and Udogie, will hopefully form a functional side. An upper-half finish in this rebuild season would be a good result. These things take time and require patience.

Keep an eye on Gameweek 7 and collect all the information before then.*

Data Dribble is here to help with that, of course.

*Though I don’t categorically rule out that they will become options earlier, as both will slot right in, both are used to the PL football, and fixtures are okay.

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