Gameweek 1 is over.
We’re moving into another phase, reader.
It’s one in which we’ll refine our pre-season assumptions – some recent events were noisy, while others brought us closer to what’s a valuable insight. The key is to distinguish between the two and stay level-headed.
Remember, there’s exactly one week before the summer transfer market shuts down. Expect significant movement that may affect teams’ dynamics and alter our selections.
Let’s start with a feel-good story, then get more serious.
🍕 What’s on today’s menu?
Dissecting Mamadou Sangaré: How sustainable is this?
Liverpool had a problem. Iraola made it even worse… (exploit that in FPL)
Newcastle’s rebuild just got a nice boost
Did Pierre Sage do it again?
Are Manchester United bad now?
Forest and Leeds: Exactly as predicted?
Some big boys dominated, and there were signals
Some big boys dominated, and there were… no signals whatsoever
And much more!
Ohhhh I want to dance with Sangaré
You can see overreactions to just one week of information left and right on social media (and in the media overall).
But I don’t think this is the case.
It’s safe to say that Mamadou Sangaré (£5.5m) lived up to expectations after securing a 14-pointer, with 12 defensive contributions, 3 bonus points, and 2 assists. He won’t do it every week, but it was a swift demonstration of his potential.
DEFCON
As expected, 7 of his 12 defensive contributions came in the form of ball recoveries, a trend we can reasonably expect to continue.
Taking control of the loose ball and playing progressive action is rooted not only in his DNA but also in the way Keith Andrews’ team plays. Last season, they had:
the 4th-best success rate at winning those second balls in their own third
6th in the middle of the pitch
… and 4th in the final third
So, when you throw a player like Sangaré into the mix, you’re in for a treat.
The funny thing is, the Malian needed just 76 minutes to hit the DEFCON threshold. Let’s see how those minutes pan out in the upcoming games.
There are quite a lot of alternatives for Andrews on how to assemble his midfield, with Yarmolyuk, Janelt, Jensen, and Damsgaard all options, but Sangaré made himself important right from the get-go, and you wouldn’t expect there to be issues with his recovery.
And for £5.5 million, there’s room for error when reading into his xMins.
Once again, Brentford’s recruitment did it. They identified him as someone who would fit perfectly with what they’re trying to achieve on the pitch. That’s how you increase the likelihood the transfer will be a success, because even the best of the best are wrong quite often.
Bonus
A large share of this came from his 2 assists and from this stupid “3 big chances created” data, which has no objective basis, unlike metrics like xA or goal probability added – someone in front of their screen just clicks it subjectively.
Still, he’s involved in all parts of the pitch and can rack up those bonus points in so many different ways. I’d say his baseline will be pretty high going forward.
Assist potential
On Saturday, he recorded both a traditional assist and a fantasy one.
The first stemmed from his ability to operate in the half-spaces I mentioned above. In a build-up sequence rich in passes, he played a one-two with Dango Ouattara, making a run into the box and delivering a neat cutback pass to Kiernan Lewis-Potter.
Exclusive.
His second assist had both “Brentford” and “Mamadou Sangaré” written all over it.
The sequence was: Janelt’s corner, Collins’ flick-on at the back post to Sangaré, his shot from the centre of the box, Kinský’s save, and Kayode’s tap-in.
Him lurking in those areas is nothing surprising when you look at his shot map from the previous season in Lens:
Over 2,500+ minutes, he averaged 1.70 non-penalty shots, with an xG in the 70th percentile for his role, which is a lot when you account for the high number of long-range efforts. That centrality provides significant value to his shots. To remind you, he scored 3 goals and added 4 assists.
He entered the box about 2 times per game in France, mostly via non-cross passes, and generated almost 40 passes that led directly to a shot.
The funny thing is, that first assist against Spurs was a bit atypical for him.
💡 Usually, he likes to find runners in behind from half-spaces and zone 14 with his through-balls, so one would naturaly expect assists to follow.
Brentford were one of the best counter-attacking teams in the previous Premier League campaign, recording the 2nd highest xG from counters and scoring the 2nd most goals.
The link-up between him and Igor Thiago, Dango Ouattara, and Kevin Schade is something to monitor very closely in the upcoming games.
Also, if he keeps picking up those second balls after various set-piece routines, it will further increase his final product.
You know I love to reverse-engineer how the world’s best scouting/recruitment departments think, and this is yet another fantastic example of how it all fits together. Defensive solidity, control across all thirds of the pitch, support for their biggest attacking weapons, and commitment to the Premier League set-piece meta.
We’re lucky to see this masterclass unfold right before our eyes.
In terms of FPL, he will be difficult to ignore as a budget midfielder, but of course, you don’t need to tear apart your team in Gameweek 2, where the most efficient solution in the vast majority of cases is just to roll your transfer to gain more opportunities and information in this highly uncertain period.
❗ The perception is at an all-time high at the moment because he played a near-perfect game in near-perfect conditions. It won’t be like this in every game.
Brentford won’t face this incomplete Spurs team every week.
In fact, Leeds, (Sunderland), Bournemouth, and Chelsea are three tricky fixtures. Aston Villa and Liverpool are cheeky good after that, followed by Hull and Forest. As I said in my previews, there isn’t a stand-out fixture swing, but those main Brentford assets will continue to tick along.
Unless they miss their penalties.
You can cautiously count Sangaré into that comfy group, and Brentford among the clubs that should have your full attention.
At the time of writing this, the default Solio Analytics expected points look like this:
I believe it’s already safe to say that those £5, £5.5, £6, and £6.5 million price-bracket midfielders will offer so much value, wiggle room, and the ability to target both steady returns over time and a high ceiling in some fixture stretches this season.
Identifying those is one of the most fun aspects of FPL for me.
It might feel too reactionary to you because some of them did really well in Gameweek 1, but at the same time, there are still many who were quiet in terms of returns, and they are next to explode. We’ll discuss some of them in the next sections of today’s article.
Let’s change the scenery for a bit and talk heavy hitters.
Liverpool and Newcastle: Hardly surprising, easily exploitable in FPL
This was one of the most predictable football matches of Gameweek 1.
A basketball game with 40 shots worth 4.20 xG in total, with both teams constantly counter-attacking.
This section will have pretty compelling data-driven arguments. Probably the loudest in this article.
Early in Iraola’s first season at Bournemouth, he set up defensively and passively in a game against Manchester City, briefly abandoning his trademark high-pressing, aggressive, intense style, allegedly saying he’d never do it again in his life.
Well, after he saw Newcastle’s brand-new young Steur and Miley double pivot, he certainly believed this was NOT the time.
Let’s do the exact opposite, and worry about the rest later.
Unfortunately, when you lose the ball around the box, with Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, Frimpong, and Kerkez all very high, with no defensive-minded number 6, and having to defend against fast transitions led by Anthony Elanga, Yoanne Wissa (who was FANTASTIC), and William Osula, it is a recipe for conceding goals.
And it’s probably not very sustainable in the long term.
This was exactly my worry when I discussed Liverpool during the pre-season. Andoni Iraola will make it work offensively sooner rather than later, but balancing this and not being too vulnerable defensively won’t happen overnight.
The data were shouting from the rooftops that this would happen: