Will we ever get our Cole Palmer back?

Maybe it's time to rethink Palmer

Oct 19, 2026

I’ve been thinking a lot about this topic over the past few weeks, so I decided to share a few words.

(Much fewer than Tuesday’s deep dive, which I worked on for 2 days straight and covered pretty much everything related to Brighton and tough Gameweek 8 benching decisions)

Look, identifying high-performing budget assets and watching them haul is extremely rewarding and embodies the pure essence of FPL.

However.

Even though I know we’re not facing a huge monetary or squad-building problem in the current landscape, seeing premiums do well would add another layer to the game we’ve missed lately.

At the very least, it might force a captaincy decision now and there.

In his 2023/2024 debut Chelsea campaign, Cole Palmer racked up 22 goals and 11 assists, starting the season priced at just £5.0m in FPL (finishing it at £6.3m).

That season now feels like it skewed public perception of him as a player. If you look deeper, it’s easy to see why that kind of output never happened again.

At the time, Mauricio Pochettino played Palmer as number ten and on the right wing, with roughly equal time in both roles. He also spent a few games up top, but it didn’t suit him well.

Palmer averaged 3.74 shots and 0.38 non-penalty xG, along with 0.30 xA, and played a creative role rather than getting into the box THAT often or receiving a massive volume of passes there
Which is a bit strange to say, given he still accumulated 11 non-penalty expected goals with nice post-shot xG and scored 13 actual goals. But if anything, it shows that a large part of his production was 9 penalties, something difficult to predict and also to repeat
He took 58% of his shots from outside the box, but who cares when you arrive in central areas often enough…
When he played centrally, his xG p90 was much higher, but not because he was racking up touches and receptions in those dangerous areas close to goal more often. The sample of about 1,100-1,200 minutes probably played a huge role (better match-ups, favourable game states, opposition defensive errors, etc.)
Creatively, 81% of his passes that led directly to a shot were from open play, so the share from set pieces wasn’t too large
Open-play crosses didn’t play a big role in his creative output. He made many runs into the box to distribute, played through balls from the right half-space, and played short line-breaking passes from zone 14. Sure, there were crosses, but his game didn’t revolve around them - he was bombing the box with ground passes and runs

Under Enzo Maresca in the 24/25, he played almost exclusively as a number ten and picked up where he left off.

There’s no better way to say it.

His underlying numbers remained at a similar level and broadly matched his actual output. He scored just 4 penalties, so the correction happened in his final product: 15 goals and 8 assists.
Creatively, his share of set pieces in Chelsea’s team increased, and his share of crosses more than doubled. However, he still played three-quarters of his key passes from open play and delivered a wide variety of creative passes in the final third

And then there was the infamous previous season…

Due to injuries, his minutes fell from 3,195 to 1,965, and it seemed like a constant struggle.

Not that much when it comes to a goal threat. Yes, taking 2.90 shots with 0.27 non-penalty xG (and 0.10 xG/shot) is a visible drop, but hardly super disappointing (still in the 80th+ percentile).

Yet, something was off.

That year-over-year 58% decline in expected assists per 90 came from posing much less of a threat in all phases of play – build-up, final third, and box presence. ❗

His results in advanced goal probability added metrics, which measure how his touches with the ball affect the team’s chance of scoring (and not conceding at the same time), dropped, and it wasn’t just about passing.

His carrying and dribbling suddenly fell off a cliff, probably the most obvious thing to notice when watching Palmer play. The eye test didn’t deceive there.

What about Palmer this season?

It’s still early to say for sure, and I certainly don’t want to draw strong conclusions from a sample size of 7 games.

Especially given the context of returning from an injury-hampered season and adjusting to life under Xabi Alonso.

There are some encouraging signals, such as more effective dribbling, carrying, and chance creation. The most positive is that his creative numbers are improving again, and he’s creating a lot of threat, playing in a system that lets him work his magic from half-spaces and drift centrally.

Plus, you have those other things, like playing 90 minutes regularly, taking penalties and not being involved in European fixtures.

However, there are also concerning ones.

The annoying thing is that he’s been stripped of all set-piece duties: Jordan Henderson (£4.9m), Pedro Neto (£6.5m), and currently injured Reece James (£5.3m) are sharing them now.

Well, if there’s also a goal threat, it shouldn’t matter. But there isn’t. Worse, in Gameweeks 3-7 (last 5 games, small-sample alert), Palmer shoots a lot, but he’s racked up just 0.51 xG, and 0.04 xG per shot.

If you’re fed up with expected numbers, just look at the shot map from TheAnalyst, because they simply describe what’s happening on the pitch:

Given the quality of Spurs’ defence, which I’ve discussed several times lately, I don’t see Palmer as a leading captaincy choice this Gameweek.

So, that’s what’s been on my mind today.

I’d like to see prime Cole Palmer (£9.7m) again this season.

But from what I’ve seen since September, I wouldn’t bet on it. At the same time, the upcoming fixtures after Spurs could spark a run of great performances. As I said, we’re still super early in the season.

Despite that, it’s handy to know what’s happening right now.

Whether to sell Palmer or hold him (and for how long) in FPL is too complex for this article, as it depends on several factors. Often, giving him more time is a good play. But if I were a non-owner, he wouldn’t be among my top transfer targets right now. That’s for sure.