Welcome to a special edition of the Thought Process series!
As planned, it’s Wildcard week.
And it arrives just as Jack Hinshelwood is back in action and scoring again. Is the universe trying to tell me something? We’ll see…
Anyway, let’s jump straight in – there’s a lot to discuss.
Gameweek 6 review: Route to a wildcard
Wildcarding in Gameweek 7 was always part of the early-season strategy.
Rather than pulling the trigger straight after the three-week international break, I wanted to wait a week and see whether:
any injured players would be sidelined for longer than expected, opening up new options or forcing a change of plan
there were any major changes I could exploit
Unfortunately, the outcome was extremely poor. There was some new info, but likely nothing significant enough to offset the points I lost.
To remind you, this was Gameweek 6 wildcard team from my last week’s deep dive:
It got off to a nice start with 83 points, a healthy green arrow at my 92,417 overall rank.
All of João Pedro (whom I sold a week earlier for Thierno Barry), Cole Palmer, and Morgan Rogers going big against a solid Bournemouth defence, and most of my rank threats returning, left me with 61 points and a 13-point red arrow:
Delaying the chip further doesn’t make much sense for my team, as my wildcard draft would likely look similar for at least 4 more GWs. I’d lose points and team value while also spending free transfers.
I can now drop the Manchester United stack and Dominik Szoboszlai, add more Arsenal players, and chase more upside while keeping my 3 free transfers. Ideally, I can accumulate 5 FTs before the busy Christmas period starts, which will be Gameweek 12.
Now, the Gameweek 7 wildcard won’t differ much from the Gameweek 6 one. The base will be the same, so if you’re playing the chip, I recommend checking last week’s article too.
Instead of recycling week-old content, I’ll pick topics I find important and that give me the biggest headaches.
Maxim De Cuyper and Pascal Groß: Do I need both?
Those 3 free transfers give me some margin for error and allow me to be more adventurous.
I’m not booking transfers outright, but I know I can change things if needed.
Whether it’s too late for Maxim De Cuyper (£5.1m) is one of the most discussed topics this week. While it’s a complex question for a non-wildcard team, I think it’s a straightforward solution on a wildcard with saved FTs.
Including him costs you nothing but lets you go for immediate upside.
I know his data are heavily skewed by that GW1 game against Aston Villa, but even without it, he’s still on 0.26 xA per game, and his average height of touches with the ball is 10 metres higher than Calafiori’s. Even Rogers, Thiago, Barry, or MGW play deeper. You’re basically putting yourself in a position to get lucky.
Brighton are slowly improving defensively, and Bart Verbruggen seems poised for another great season, as his shot-stopping numbers look strong at the moment.
The game against Crystal Palace is a great match-up. De Cuyper shares set pieces with Groß, and Palace rank 4th worst in xG conceded from dead-ball situations. They’ve allowed a ton of good shots from anywhere this season, including a massive volume of attempts and runs through their right channel.
Brighton work well offensively:
1st for expected goals
1st for set-piece goals
2nd for open-play goals
2nd for shots
1st for shots on target
3rd lowest share of blocked shots
There are also cons:
Although it won’t happen overnight, Hinshelwood, Mitoma, Minteh, and Azeez will gradually come into contention. At the same time, it probably isn’t a big deal, as De Cuyper could stay in the starting eleven and just move to LB. He’s more than capable of generating a final product here (0.18 xA per 90 minutes last season over 1,600+ minutes) unless there’s some major tactical shift.
Fixtures. After Palace, Liverpool and Manchester City are next. The City game is a problem. Liverpool is open to interpretation. However, that’s what the other players are for – it’s not rocket science to select 5 defenders who rotate well. Or you can sell De Cuyper eventually. He’s £5.1, so you can do it in one move, as there are plenty of other great options priced similarly. After this short run of tough games, things will look much better…
As for Pascal Groß, there’s this thing called regression to the mean, and it will definitely happen, meaning the production will slow down. However, it’s important to assess what you’re getting for those £5.9 million. The German is:
in good physical shape, playing 90 minutes regularly
taking penalties and set pieces (about 60% of them)
creating from open play (78% of his key passes are from it)
firing quite a lot of shots as a bonus
After listing all that, I don’t care when he stops scoring at the same rate: he still provides a lot of value if he keeps playing 90 minutes.
As with De Cuyper, there’s an easy way out if you need it, but with those Gameweek 10+ fixtures, there’s no real sell pressure.
One event would make me consider dropping him, however: the return of prime Jack Hinshelwood, who now costs exactly the same.
Sadly, he picked up an injury in an opening game against Villa after scoring a brace, effectively picking up where he left off. After moving into the #10 role in Gameweek 28 last season, he averaged 2.20 shots, 0.40 non-penalty xG, and 0.12 xA per 90 minutes, and has since scored 5 goals and assisted 2 (including those two against Villa).
Brighton’s midfield situation is one to monitor constantly.
Intermezzo: Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka (£9.6m) is in my wildcard.
Earlier this week, I wrote a full article about him, so I recommend you read it:
This means I most likely won’t own Cole Palmer (£9.7m), as my structure and team value don’t allow for that. I also like the idea of stacking João Pedro (£7.8m) and Morgan Rogers (£7.9m), so the decision has several angles, not just putting Saka and Palmer directly against each other and comparing their output.
In isolation, both are good picks, and it depends on what you are trying to achieve with your squad.