The upside's in the details no one talks about + Harry Wilson breakdown

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It ain’t easy to see Gameweek 17 as something special.

Over the past few weeks, all kinds of tricky, unexpected, and even completely new situations have been coming at us from all sides. So, in a sense, this is just another gameweek in a long line of them.

Even if you use a chip, it will most likely be triple-captaining Erling Haaland against West Ham (H), which isn’t exactly a move that needs much thought.

But we have been preparing for this one for quite some time now, folks.

Some will say that AFCON has lost its significance. 

Mohamed Salah is no longer among the top performers in our beloved game. 

Omar Marmoush and Rayan Aït-Nouri? We’re no longer in the pre-season.

And if this isn’t enough of an argument, FPL Towers’ decision to hand us five free transfers to address potential issues has quickly nullified the tournament’s impact on our team.

Wrong.

The upside is in the details.

And the details create opportunities if you know where to look. There are many ways to find an edge in fantasy games. Learning how to react to injuries, bans, and players departing for tournaments is both one of the most effective and underrated skills.

At the same time, it remains one of the most under-discussed topics in content. Why does it happen when it’s so important, you ask? We’ll explore that later in this article.

Firstly, let’s discuss specific cases.

Brentford letdown and why it happened

Let me share two stories with you.

1️⃣ Sometimes, it’s beyond your control.

Last Gameweek, Brentford faced Leeds at home, and it was expected to be a promising clash to earn more points from Igor Thiago and Dango Ouattara.

In the first half, they even nearly combined for another goal before VAR reversed a penalty decision for a close offside, even though the initial call was probably a bit soft.

In the end, the Bees were the worse team. Leeds generated more than double the xG of them — 1.52 to 0.72 (based on StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout). When examining non-shot-based models, they had more control in the match, frequently moving the ball into more dangerous areas. According to models, they should have won that game in about 60% of cases.

So, what happened?

Over the 10 Gameweeks leading up to the game, Leeds were ranked 6th-worst in xG conceded. They can be vulnerable.

At the same time, they are ranked 7th in xG created over the same period, and I noted last week that they have become increasingly entertaining.

One reason Brentford allowed those chances was rotation. Keith Andrews chose to bench Yehor Yarmolyuk and Mikel Damsgaard, both of whom were expected to start.

Damsgaard ranks just outside the top 10 in advanced goal probability added passing models this season. Strangely, he’s also one of the most influential advanced midfielders when it comes to winning the ball in crucial areas, which is something similar to what Yarmoliuk does, only in a different role.

Mathias Jensen has also had a poor season so far, and it was another underwhelming performance.

Rotation wasn’t the sole reason, but a significant one.

2️⃣ Sometimes, those things shout at you. You just need to listen.

The most recent example is the Wolves vs. Manchester United game in Gameweek 15. Its primary characteristics were Bruno Fernandes’ 18-point haul and United creating 4.24 expected goals, which is a lot of high-quality chances.

It was among the worst stylistic match-ups possible for Wolves.

This season, United thrive on counter-attacks and counter-pressing, and they have the highest xG in the league from these. They average 4 shots per game from these fast attacks.

Wolves are on the opposite end of the spectrum — they’ve already conceded 10 goals defending counters.

Remember the name…

Oh, and João Gomes got his 5th yellow card a week earlier…

The 24-year-old Brazilian, who is linked to join several prominent clubs in January, including Manchester United, is one of the most effective ball winners in the Premier League.

He’s doing it in massive volumes and in the most important areas on the pitch. He can tackle and read the game well, and he would have stopped some of those actions from the start.

I’m not saying United wouldn’t win. They probably would. But Gomes’ absence, the Wolves' most influential defensive-minded player (who’s also quite solid on the ball), was a death kiss…

Now, let’s explore some mind-blowing numbers and realisations.