I analysed every AFCON departure—one team is about to collapse (not the one you think)

Hours away from 5 FTs: The only AFCON guide you need

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Man, how quickly time flies.

Over four months ago, we received the news that there would be 5 transfers top-up in Gameweek 16 for the first time in Fantasy Premier League history, helping us better navigate players departing for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).

Let’s set aside for now whether this is a good or bad decision. It has certainly introduced new tactical elements to our beloved game, especially in the weeks leading up to it. But now, only a few dozen hours separate us from maximum transfer flexibility.

And this calls for another deep dive…

Today, I’ll discuss:

• Which teams will be most impacted by players leaving?

• How can we capitalise on their situations?

• Does this give us new picks, and how should we make the most of them?

• Macro perspective and mindset.

• And more…

But first, some basic info:

When? 📅 AFCON will take place from Sunday, 21 December 2025 to Sunday, 18 January 2026.

In terms of FPL Gameweeks? ⚽ The tournament overlaps with GWs 17 to 22 but could extend to GW23 for the finalists, not including clubs’ time off.

FIFA confirmed December 15 as the mandatory release date, meaning players should be available for GW16 matches.

Players eliminated in the group stage could potentially return for GW20+.

Who’s not leaving? 👍 Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m), Yankuba Minteh (£6.3m), Mohammed Kudus (£6.5m), or Beto (£5.1m), as their respective countries failed to qualify.

Which teams are 100% unaffected? ✅ Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Leeds.

The twist 🌀 All FPL managers’ transfers will be topped up to 5 in Gameweek 16. This means you should use (wisely) your remaining transfers this week.

Who’s leaving (and what to do):

Aston Villa

Players: Evann Guessand

How much should we care❓

Not much. I had this section prepared before the Brighton game, which was by far Villa’s best attacking display this season. They created plenty of chances, including six shots inside the 6-yard box, with Guessand taking two of them, along with this strange assist to Watkin’s first goal. No one really noticed it.

Before that match, he had only played 490 minutes. Unfortunately for Villa, who sat 17th on the xG created table before Gameweek 14, he has contributed very little across nearly all areas, especially regarding the final product.

While his departure, in theory, increases the fantasy appeal of Donyell Malen (£5.1m), fixtures outside GWs 16 & 17 look quite grim from an attacking standpoint.

How to exploit this💡

Mallen is my favourite Villa offensive player. Every time he plays, he delivers, like on Wednesday, scoring shortly after he came on the pitch in the 78th minute. However, he’s far from being nailed, and as I said, the fixtures are an issue here.

Bournemouth

Players: Amine Adli

How much should we care❓

More than you’d think. Missing Adli might lead to less experimentation and a higher chance that David Brooks (£5.0m) starts regularly/plays enough minutes. He goes entirely under the radar (from a broader footballing perspective) as one of the Premier League’s top creators.

I severely underestimated the effect of his suspension against Everton on Bournemouth’s ability to dominate the game and create chances. Antoine Semenyo needs him — when on the pitch, Brooks creates an astonishing number of quality opportunities for the Ghanaian.

He and Marcos Senesi are crucial both in the buildup and the final third. It’s shocking how much losing a centre-back can affect the team’s attacking phase. You won’t see this kind of situation with any other Premier League team.

My prediction that Bournemouth vs Everton could be a high-scoring affair was one of my biggest analytical mistakes this season. It was glaringly obvious — missing both Senesi and Brooks, combined with poor creative output from nearly everyone else, except Tavernier, greatly impacts the Cherries’ performance.

How to exploit this💡

Considering Brook’s low goal threat and absence of defensive contributions, he’s not a very inspiring pick. However, in all the games he hasn’t started, Bournemouth have created very few dangerous chances. This is something to monitor if you’re a Semenyo owner. With Senesi and Brooks expected to start against Caicedo-less Chelsea, their prospects could improve.