🧵 Should we all accept defeat and get Phil Foden?

Weekly Gameweek previews are back! Gameweek 16, let's do this

The tradition continues.

For free, only on the platform where I choose who sees my content. Not Elon.

If you missed why I switched my FPL Gameweek previews from 𝕏 to my newsletter, check this post:

The main goal is to keep the same tone as my threads — fast-paced, casual, with a touch of awkward humour.

If you want proper in-depth analyses, you know where to find them.

Phil Foden: Has the ship already sailed?

In the span of 10 days and 3 GWs, Phil Foden went from a frustrating asset to… an even more frustrating asset.

Especially for those who saw him rise by £0.6 million in the blink of an eye. With 5 FTs top-up this week, money flexibility isn’t an issue any longer.

But what is the reason behind Foden’s sudden surge in the final product?

Before it all happened, the Englishman had already been quietly impressive in some earlier games, but it was a different kind of impressiveness, not as beneficial in FPL.

Positionally, he was fulfilling the #8 role, and “eye-testers” among us noticed that his movement looked pretty nice this season:

• He was very lively

• He often received the ball in advanced areas and…

• … showcased his vision by delivering several passes that created decent chances.

Also, he took over 70% of the set pieces in those games, which is helpful.

Goal threat? Not much of one.

Then Pep experienced an awakening and decided to use that good movement to ease some of the burden off Erling Haaland.

Later, in Gameweek 13, Foden was utilised as a pure #10 (we are talking about the average height of touches here).

In Gameweek 14, he played as a wide forward.

Last gameweek, he was deep again, but because he’s on the heater and it was Sunderland, who are slowly succumbing to regression to the mean, he still made frequent runs into the box and racked up 0.92 xG and 0.15 xA (as per StatsBomb numbers via Fantasyfootballscout.com).

After Gameweek 13, his average number of entries into the box with the ball per 90 minutes increased by 40%.

No one can guarantee he’ll continue to play similar roles to those in recent GWs. Pep still has many options, but at least he has rediscovered that Foden in an advanced role works.

If he is deployed deep again, and his numbers decline, you still have a safety net:

• him taking most of the set-pieces

• being a historically amazing finisher

• having cheat-codes of creators in Doku and Cherki

• okay run of fixtures: West Ham, Forest, and Sunderland soon

• if it doesn’t work out, you can easily pivot elsewhere

No one will judge you for buying Foden.

Most of the time, I wouldn’t be overly thrilled about Crystal Palace away as an entry point, but:

• Those price rises aren’t fun

• There are not many MIDs that actually perform

• I’m not the biggest fan of Nathaniel Clyne, to put it mildly…

So, yeah…

Rayan Cherki: The City can’t be serious about this…

I briefly mentioned Rayan Cherki (£6.4m) in the previous section, so let’s discuss a bit more.

In one of my pre-season newsletters, I wrote this:

Watching him play this season, tell me you’re not entertained?

It will still take some time for Florian Wirtz and Xavi Simons to perform at their best, but Cherki dominates from the beginning.

Frankly, that’s absurd considering Jérémy Doku has been almost unplayable this season. He tops the advanced goal probability added model, which measures how much his ball touches increase City’s chances of scoring.

His carrying is on another level. I can’t recall the last time I saw someone with such a massive volume of dribbles while maintaining such a high success rate. Sure, players like Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal, and Neymar can do it, but it’s not as common as you might think.

Because he can drive the ball into the penalty area and distribute from there, his xAG p90 is off the charts. But after 430 minutes on the pitch, Cherki’s results in this metric are twice what Doku’s produce!

I know it’s a tiny sample size, and it won’t stay at the same level — I just want to give you a sense of what he does on the pitch.

Do I think he’s an FPL pick?

Not at this point, but solely because of the xMins risks involved.

However, he’s currently only £0.2 million more expensive than Yankuba Minteh, and it doesn’t seem he would fall behind on the final product. One to monitor.

Leeds are… fun now?

After fifteen Premier League matches, Leeds sit 11th in the expected points table. And that’s not even the most exciting stat.

In the sample size of the last 10 Gameweeks (to remove that early-season noise), they are definitely a team to target, as only five other sides conceded a higher number of quality chances. Also, Lucas Perri ranks among the worst Premier League shot-stoppers this season.

Leeds fans just can’t catch a break with their goalkeepers.

22 goals conceded is the highest in that period, alongside Burnley.

The attack is entertaining, though, ranking 7th in xG created.

The real shock here is that they accumulated the most set-piece xG (just above Arsenal, Brentford, and Newcastle).

Joe Rodon has already had 8 attempts inside the box, with half of them on target, so if you’re ever forced to play him, you’re positioning yourself to get lucky.

The bad news is that Leeds are at the bottom of the most sensible fixture tickers out there, both in terms of attacking and defensive difficulty. I’m curious how they will cope.

Stat Crime of the Week

I wish to make this a regular feature in the newsletter.

Because there are so many data misconceptions on 𝕏 each week that create misleading narratives, and I have a platform to address them.

My aim isn’t to mock anyone, so I won’t take screenshots and let AI paraphrase instead:

That was a wiiiild game!

United should have won 5-0 as per xG.

And Bournemouth scored 4 goals from 0.9 xG! Craaaaazy times

Oh no, not this again.

No real harm done for FPL purposes this time, but it’s a common issue that gives all the xG haters out there the ammo they need.

When a team accumulates 2 xG, it certainly doesn’t mean they should score two goals.

The information here is that “they were busy racking up shots and probably created some very good chances, but let me check the shot map first”. 

Taking 4 shots with 0.50 xG each isn’t the same as taking 20 shots with 0.10 xG each.

People working in football clubs often told me, “Look, xG doesn’t work, because it rarely has it right when I look at the result! Why should we even bother?”

Yeah, because that’s not how it works. At the same time, it doesn’t mean the information isn’t valuable if the sample size is large enough.

Today, the Data Dribble premium community celebrates its 1st birthday! 🎁

Since December last year, we have grown to a couple of hundred members, held numerous discussions on Discord and during our weekly Q&As, and I have published over 180 articles.

It's been an incredible journey, and thank you to everyone who has been part of it.

In the latest premium in-depth analysis, I walked through the entire process of creating a Free Hit 16 draft:

Also, the AFCON is approaching, and you should know how that impacts teams:

See you next week!