Complete guide for Free Hit 16: Look at me, I'm the captain now

Building the Free Hit 16 team

I know it’s only 14 days since the last Free Hit article, but Gameweek 16 is one of the most popular times to use the chip in the first half of the season, and a good chunk of members from our premium community will make the move.

Since Data Dribble’s inception (would you believe we’re celebrating our first birthday in just a few days?), I've published several of those guides covering not only player selection and team analysis but also a wealth of key concepts.

To avoid too much repetition, today we’ll focus on the building aspect/analysis rather than meta and theory. So, if you’re using a chip this week, I suggest revisiting the last post:

Even if you don’t play it, we will still have some fun with the flags data, discussing a range of popular FPL assets and emerging trends.

We’ll also review matchup specifics, positional weaknesses, and opportunities to exploit.

Without further ado, let’s do it.

Bukayo Saka: Top of the EV table. Deservedly so?

We’ll start on a somewhat fresh note.

If using solvers is part of your decision-making process, whether it’s FPL Review, Solio Analytics, Copilot, or any other, it’s not Erling Haaland who’s topping this week’s point projections.

For the first time this season, it is Bukayo Saka who faces Wolves at home.

Data Dribble was born from analytical foundations. However, it’s not about blindly following models without challenging them.

Instead, we ask questions to identify where and why the models fall short, and challenge them through end-to-end data analysis and by applying proper context to the numbers.

It may sound somewhat vague, but if you read my articles regularly, you’ll understand exactly what I mean. It’s what analytical departments in the top clubs do, and I have witnessed it first-hand. We can adopt elements of it in FPL.

So, why is Saka, who’s still selected by only 19.4% of FPL managers, being regarded as a player who doesn’t provide enough value?

(Let’s set aside the fact that we care about value much less when constructing a Free Hit draft.)

Reason number one: he’s getting better and better.

Yes, Phil Foden is currently stealing the show, and rightly so, but there’s something brewing beneath with Saka. Let’s look at the data starting from Gameweek 7. I use this sample size not to cherry-pick stats — which is a common yet poor practice — but to gain a more accurate picture:

• Gameweeks 1 and 2 represent the early-season noise

• Gameweeks 3 and 4 are when he was injured

• In Gameweeks 5 and 6, he returned to action and played 45 and 69 minutes, respectively, still lacking match fitness.

Since GW7, he has been one of the most influential players in the league according to goal probability added models (xT, OBV, etc., if you wish), especially those that measure the value of his passing in Arsenal’s chances of scoring.

He’s generating most of the threat with his high crosses, closely followed by drilled passes into the box (or inside it), and chipped balls. It’s not only him occupying the left half-space. Only a few midfielders have more touches in the penalty area, and he turns them into many final passes into the six-yard box or central areas.

Saka’s passes that led directly to a shot… (theanalyst.com)

You also need to remember that his open-play threat is aided by the fact that he shares set-piece duties with Declan Rice — for example, both took the same number of corners during that period. It all adds up to 0.30 xAG, which is at the 99th percentile for that period.

Do you know what other fantastic news is? There’s finally a proper goal threat… Saka averages (as per StatsBomb data via Fantasyfootballscout.com):

• 2.87 non-penalty shots p90

• 1.38 non-penalty shots on target p90

• 0.26 non-penalty xG p90

• 0.32 non-penalty post-shot xG p90

• 0.09 xG per shot

All are excellent and very healthy (sustainable) numbers.

He has delivered impressive performances against both Brentford and Aston Villa, who rank 5th and 8th in our sample’s xG conceded table. To me, that’s a clear signal. You can also factor in penalties and some DEFCON potential.

This season, Arsenal have no problems whatsoever playing against settled blocks, and Wolves have conceded the most goals from slow positional attacks. There should be plenty of opportunities for Saka to return. The only concern with him is playing time, but you have no choice but to stomach this uncertainty.

Will our Free Hit team include Arsenal’s stack (i.e., two or more players from the same team)? You bet it will — the full one.

You know I’m keen on players with strong FPL synergy.

Wolves are ranked somewhere in the middle of the pack (no pun intended) for xG conceded from set pieces, which does not hinder a team that accumulated the most goals from them, both expected and actual.

Since Gabriel’s injury, Jurriën Timber is the best bet if you want to capitalise on one of their greatest strengths in the final third of the pitch.

But there’s a catch…