Harry Wilson conundrum, João Pedro's future in FPL, and United stat nobody saw coming

Detailed look at the most important stuff before Gameweek 28

After what seemed like a pretty chill Gameweek 27, the upcoming GW28 deadline will force FPL managers to make some important decisions.

That means we have a lot to discuss today.

We’re kicking things off with a closer look at Harry Wilson’s recent form and whether there are any other Fulham players worth your attention.

Then we’ve got Wirtz’s impact on Liverpool, what to do with Ekitiké, whether this new version of João Pedro is permanent, how to approach Rice and Timber, and one fun little nugget about Manchester United.

And some more.

Harry Wilson is shooting less these days. Can he turn it around?

Over the course of human history, many battles have shaped the world we know today.

Battles such as Stalingrad, Thermopylae, the Trojan War, and the Normandy Landings.

The Battle of Helm’s Deep.

The Battle of the Bastards, if you’re younger…

It probably depends on what your hobbies are: for us, there’s a battle of budget mids, as I called it in my last week’s deep dive, which included Harry Wilson (£5.9m), who’s a nice case study this week.

Battle of budget MIDs and predicting Liverpool, aka how to navigate GWs 27 to 31

The Welsh winger really stepped up when the AFCON began.

It was a time when Fulham lost three key players: their master creator, Alex Iwobi (£6.3m), the second-most utilised player, Calvin Bassey (£4.4m), and Samuel Chukwueze (£5.3m), who had been getting the ground running at his new club.

During that 6-game period, Wilson posed the greatest threat among the Cottagers, both in the build-up and in the final third, posting highly above-average non-shot and xA numbers.

On top of that, he kept racking up shots, something he had started doing pre-AFCON:

• 18 shots (2.80 per game)

• half of them from inside the box

• … and another 2 goals scored + one assist

❗ Note that when you’re a fantastic finisher, the volume of shots absolutely matters.

Between GWs 23 and 27, Wilson’s creative numbers stayed pretty much the same.

He created from open play AND from set pieces that he shared with Iwobi.

However, there’s a significant drop in shot volume: just 1.30 per ninety minutes, with a very low xG.

What this basically means is that:

• Not only were most of his shots outside the box…

• … but his only 4 attempts inside the box weren’t dangerous. Fortunately, he scored his free-kick.

What are the reasons for this decline?

Alex Iwobi is back for the past five games and is running the show again, picking up where he left off. He is moving the ball into areas that matter with his runs and through balls. That slightly alters how Fulham create chances, yes.

But I don’t think that explains it, as Wilson was a pretty avid shooter with Iwobi on the pitch earlier in the season. As I mentioned last time, Brighton, Manchester United, and Manchester City are teams with great defensive form.

Leeds and Everton also aren’t whipping boys lately.

Fulham simply struggled to create shots (and good shots) in those games.

What’s the verdict + other Fulham players

Why am I discussing this again?

Well, their fixture run involving Spurs, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, and Burnley is among the best out there until Gameweek 32, and it will most likely unlock a higher volume of chances.

Wilson is just £5.9 million and already has a solid floor thanks to his creativity. It really takes only a few returns for him to be of proper value. It’s a classic case of putting yourself in a position to get lucky (when it comes to goals). It’s a numbers game, really.

You know he’s not my first choice. But there are several ways to utilise him, even if only as a BGW31 punt against Burnley.

There are also other Fulham players you might consider for their run.

If their name’s not Joachim Andersen (£4.5m), I wouldn’t.

Look, Raúl Jiménez (£6.1m) is an above-average Premier League forward with a nice selection of shots—plenty of central attempts, thanks to his great movement in the box and his instinct for receiving in good areas.

But so is Rodrigo Muniz (£5.3m), who’s back from the sidelines and has replaced Raúl in each of the last three games: in the 75th, 60th, and 65th minutes, in that order.

And we’re in a stage of the season where you can’t pick players with reduced xMins when it’s not something unpredictable, but you actually know they are reduced.

Raúl certainly can move in the box… (source: theanalyst.com)

As for other midfielders, I think Wilson is still the best option, and it’s pointless to opt for a double-up or risk someone else instead of him. The upside isn’t that big, but the opportunity cost is (missing out on other viable MIDs).

I don’t mind Joachim Andersen. Although their defence is slightly below average in the Premier League, there are several strong buy signals: