Battle of budget MIDs and predicting Liverpool, aka how to navigate GWs 27 to 31

Solving the most important questions before next batch of games

The playbook for the upcoming Gameweek 27 to 31 period seems pretty straightforward.

The vast majority of FPL managers need a new budget midfielder.

Many are looking to replace Declan Rice.

And everyone would like to finally figure out Liverpool.

Although it’s more important than ever to take into account your chip strategy, the number of free transfers, and the overall health of your team, making it difficult to give advice that fits everyone (unless you hop into our weekly Q&A), this article should give you an idea of how to evaluate players and teams and make an informed decision.

Liverpool: Keep Hugo Ekitiké? Buy Florian Wirtz?

Liverpool are among the most polarising teams in FPL this season.

I bet you saw so many conflicting opinions about their picks on social media, and you’re not really sure what to make of it all. So, let’s have a clear-eyed look at all of this.

In the last ten games, the Reds are firmly among the best defences in the Premier League. Compared with the GWs 1 to 17 period, their expected goals conceded improved by another 14%, and they are tied second with Manchester United in that period, despite having to fix several glaring issues.

Such as:

• Struggles at the full-back position

• Other players having to compensate for Mohamed Salah’s defensive limitations

• … or Alexis Mac Allister having a poor season by his standards, which is even more obvious when you watch Ryan Gravenbech dominating both on and off the ball.

When editing this article, I came across a nice analogy from Josh Williams from Distance Covered: fixing a team is a lot like fixing a car. The only difference is that you can’t hook the team up to a computer. Arne Slot is a mechanic who has to run the diagnostics himself (and his team), only to find out that not everything can be repaired. You need to replace some parts, eventually.

Spot on, if you ask me.

Anyway, up until Gameweek 31, the Reds face Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Wolves, Spurs, and Brighton, a run that turns heads. 

It’s a series of opponents who struggle to create clear-cut chances and are vulnerable at set pieces. 

In my last article, I discussed the sharp decline in the quality of shots Liverpool have been generating from set pieces under Arne Slot. If we look at the total xG created from set pieces this season, you will find them sitting near the bottom, with just Nottingham Forest creating worse chances from them.

Which makes it even funnier. Not only were Liverpool dominating them during the Jürgen Klopp era, but you also might remember that the dead-ball situations were one of the Forest’s most potent weapons last season. How quickly can things change…

However, Virgil van Dijk’s (£5.9m) individual quality is high enough to make up for it, at least partly.

He has double the attempts Ibrahima Konaté (£5.4m) has, and while his numbers dropped off a cliff compared to when Liverpool were the set-piece powerhouse, there’s still only one player who recorded more attempts from corners. And that’s Erling Haaland (£14.9m). 

The Dutch’s last week’s 17-pointer was long overdue.

Also, there’s really no one else to target in Liverpool’s defence.

In terms of the most crucial metrics, Hugo Ekitiké is firmly among the best Premier League number nines in our 10-GW sample. Apart from expected metrics and shot volume, which are elite, he’s also dominating in:

• Number of touches inside the box

• Number of received passes inside the box

• The quality of positions he’s getting to receive

• Ability to carry the ball from deep

There’s only one thing he lacks lately: finishing quality. Some of those misses drove his owners mad and made them question whether it’s justified to pay £8.9m for that FWD slot in a landscape full of appealing midfielders.

Ekitiké’s shot map (source: theanalyst.com)

While there are many routes to success that don’t involve owning Ekitiké, if he’s already in your team, it’s usually better to build around him with budget options than to try to force a different structure.

Fixtures are fine for the rest of February/March, and there’s a good chance it’s more sensible to address other issues within your team (or boost your EV somewhere else).

Of course, there’s no one-size-fits-all recipe: