2 teams that became more FPL-friendly, plus 1 special case
Discussing teams that might have cracked the code
The 2026/27 season is drawing closer, reader.
Soon, the 2-part pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs will hit Data Dribble, along with another cheat-sheet-style article. But before we reach the final pre-season week, when we have the most information, I thought it would be fun to discuss some teams even earlier.
The idea is simple: look at teams whose new signings have made them more attractive FPL targets.
And one that has potential, but it’s better to proceed with caution.
I tried not to list the most obvious ones, like Chelsea, whose management has given Xabi Alonso full licence to build a team tailored to his needs.
Leeds are doing it right
They were one of the two teams to avoid relegation in the previous season.
What was even more impressive was how they did it – they were competitive from the start, and the underlying data made that crystal clear.
Which shouldn’t be too surprising to regular Data Dribble readers:
It seems we’re making this a nice tradition. Last season should have a strong psychological effect on them, as they’ve now experienced this massive confidence boost twice in a row.
First, they clinched promotion after what was one of the most dominant seasons in recent Championship history, beating the second-best team by 24 expected points. Then, right after that, they became a classic example of an average Premier League team.
When I say average, I mean it as a compliment.
Sticking with the xPoints metric (stripped of penalties) that evaluates their performance on both ends of the pitch, they were ranked 10th, with figures similar to those of Newcastle and Aston Villa.
And their approach to the transfer market also oozes confidence.
Hey Siri, Google “Trafford Arsenal triple save”
The thing is, transfers must always serve a purpose, and if you want a good case study on how to address the team’s pain points, it’s right in front of you.
The goalkeeper position was an obvious problem last season. At the start of the Premier League campaign, Lucas Perri replaced Illan Meslier after a successful season at Lyon, where he impressed with an aggressive goalkeeping style and solid shot-stopping. Even though there were some question marks about his claiming, the transfer felt reasonable.
But goalkeepers are a strange breed… (remember our Djordje Petrovič running joke, fam?)
Perri started as the #1 choice, but couldn’t pick up where he left off. Eventually, Farke lost patience with him, and 35-year-old Karl Darlow replaced him in the second half of the season. The Englishman did okay, which was more than enough compared with those previous months.
This summer, Leeds showed true ambition and signed James Trafford (£5.0m).
Which is a nice transition, because in their last Championship season, their players had to deal with him when he pulled off some black magic as a Burnley keeper. For his price, he isn’t too appealing an FPL option, sadly.
But he’s an upgrade and someone who will make Leeds better as a whole.
⭐ Fun fact: In his 4 starts for City last season, Trafford prevented 2.50 xG.
That’s a lot of brilliant saves.
Tarik Muharemovič: Is the hype real?
Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5.
Super competitive league, right?
They parted ways not only with Meslier but also with Pascal Struijk (£5.0m), whom they replaced swiftly with Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m). Again, it makes great sense in terms of squad-building, as Farke’s team DNA is built around aerials in absurd volume.
💡 Only Everton and Crystal Palace engaged in more headers in their defensive third, and they were the second most active in the final third.
However, success rates weren’t through the roof, so you tackle this by bringing someone who can make aerial clearances in the box AND offer an aerial threat in the other one.
Last season, I wrote several articles about trends in the Premier League and how to exploit them.
Set pieces were the main focus of these articles because the number of goals from those situations skyrocketed.
Muharemovič has a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile, meaning only 5% of centre-backs in the top 5 leagues fared better.
At Sassuolo, a large share of those clearances fell to his teammate (don’t worry, there are a lot of those DEFCON-friendly too), which should help with control, as Leeds had the worst success rate in winning loose-ball duels in their own third last season.
Fortunately, they were solid in the middle of the pitch and fantastic in the final third.
Returning to attacking set pieces, Leeds recorded:
the 5th-highest set-piece xG last season
… and scored the 6th most actual goals.
Muharemovič was the most frequent target of corners at Sassuolo, and he recorded 2 goals and 2 assists.
Do you know what’s beautiful?
What we’ve just discussed makes Muharemovič a direct FPL pick, as there’s a scenario in which he meets all three main criteria for a good DEF pick: DEFCON hit rate, goal threat, and clean-sheet potential.
Last season, he averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90, mostly thanks to clearances. He also posed a set-piece threat, and Leeds might well produce some eye-catching defensive numbers.
Do you notice how well connected everything is?
For 8 years, I did these breakdowns full-time to identify the best fits in the transfer market, so looking at this genuinely excites me, as I can appreciate the process behind it.
And that’s still not all.
Their third summer transfer is another piece of this beautiful tactical and club-philosophy puzzle. Although it probably depends on your definition of beautiful, especially when you actually watch those PL games, ehm.
Harry Wilson, Anton Stach, and what to do now
Let’s keep discussing set-pieces, just moving a bit further up the pitch.
Anton Stach (£6.0m) took over most set-piece duties last season and did pretty well:
Harry Wilson (£6.5m) was one of Fulham’s most active takers, sharing the role with Saša Lukič (£5.0m) and Alex Iwobi (£5.5m). His arrival means Leeds now have one more quality option, especially on the right side, as Wilson is left-footed.
He also adds a fair amount of open-play creativity and ranks among the league’s best finishers.
Despite that, I would pass on him as an FPL pick in Gameweek 1, because the value isn’t really there:
He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category full of viable picks
We need a bit more information on his minutes
His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see
Anton Stach still seems to provide enough value for £0.5m less.
This is current Solio’s xPoints for the opening 8 gameweeks:
Are there any other viable picks apart from Muharemovič?
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