🧵 West Ham, Erling Haaland, and Antonee Robinson — this week's data bits

FPL Gameweek 17 preview

The tradition continues.

For free, only on the platform where I choose who sees my content. Not Elon.

If you missed why I switched my FPL Gameweek previews from 𝕏 to my newsletter, check this post.

The main goal is to keep the same tone as my threads — fast-paced, casual, with a touch of awkward humour.

If you want proper in-depth analyses, you know where to find them.

How Nuno Espírito Santo didn’t improve West Ham

One of the most discussed topics this week is one that… doesn’t need much discussion.

Manchester City face West Ham at home, and Erling Haaland is a standout triple captaincy pick for the rest of the first half of the season. You don’t need me to tell you that.

I’m much more concerned about Jérémy Doku’s injury and how it affects the left-hand-side dynamics, and therefore Nico O’Reilly’s goal threat (chance creation will most likely remain fine).

It’s undeniable that the Belgian has caused havoc this season, and O’Reilly’s owners don’t want to lose this:

Source: theanalyst.com

These are, in fact, shots the English youngster has produced so far this season. If I hadn’t told you, you’d think it’s a winger.

At the same time, I believe City should be fine without Doku, and his absence shouldn’t hinder their ability to score as much.

Some tacticos will tell you that Nuno’s low block will be difficult to break down without him, but other teams have been breaking it down just fine, even without one of the best creators in the Premier League.

You have to feel for all West Ham fans who thought Nuno’s appointment would make them more defensively solid. It just didn’t click.

Since then, they have been ranked 18th in the xG conceded table with:

• 19 expected goals conceded

• 19 goals conceded

• the second-most shots conceded (with a pretty low xG/shot, but that’s because of that absurd volume — they allow big chances regularly)

As a current non-owner, I’m worried they’ll let Rayan Cherki shoot, and he’ll score a brace from outside the box because:

a) they’ll give him time

and

b) Alphonse Areola is one of the worst shot-stoppers against long-distance attempts this season

😟

Let’s circle back to their defence in a settled block:

From slow positional attacks, they have already conceded 11 expected and 11 actual goals.

No other team fares worse than them.

(Leeds are tied for goals conceded from these attacks)

A lot of random things can happen in a football match, and even Haaland can have a bad day, but there’s no need to overthink it or look for another captaincy option this week.

Malick Diouf and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are heading to AFCON: Is it really a big deal?

There WILL be teams negatively affected by their players' leaving for AFCON. That’s inevitable.

At the same time, some departures won’t be as bad as they seem.

A team losing both of its fullbacks sounds scary at first. However, the decline in performance for both players is generational, so whoever replaces them won’t have to clear a high bar, eh.

I hyped Malick Diouf relentlessly during the pre-season, and he began his debut Premier League season well, but then…

He’ll be back

Defensively, he doesn’t contribute much. I don’t think there are many other fullbacks who would stop dangerous attacks or recover the ball in crucial areas less often than he does.

Fuck that, you might say. His crosses are what matter.

Well, since Gameweek 6, he has produced just two passes that led directly to a shot, with a combined xA of 0.06. You can add eight not very dangerous shots — all of them either blocked or missed.

What about Aaron Wan-Bissaka? Defensively, not much better.

Offensively? There are just tiny glimpses.

ZERO shots in the last 900+ minutes, and eight key passes with a total of 0.45 xA.

Does this section have any real impact on your FPL decision-making? No, unfortunately. It won’t change how you handle West Ham in the game. However, it’s a useful reminder that playing a lot of minutes doesn’t automatically mean a team’s game will crumble without a player.

Antonee Robinson: He’s returned from injury and hit the ground running

During the pre-season, I had high hopes for Antonee Robinson (£4.9m).

I was fantasising about him taking that left-back role at Liverpool, although I knew there was no chance they would buy a 28-year-old player.

Seeing Milos Kerkez struggling, they might be wondering whether they shouldn’t try it for two seasons.

Last season, Robinson was probably the best fullback in the Premier League. If you disagree, you can’t argue that he was the most well-rounded.

Super-reliable ball-winner, great ball carrier, highly influential in the build-up, and a final-pass monster in the final third. Most of the time, he was everywhere and got the job done.

When a player falls into the 90th percentile for passes in the box without taking ANY set-pieces, you know he’s a real deal.

He has spent most of this season sidelined, but returned last week for the Burnley game and then started against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup midweek. He even recorded an assist for Fulham’s goal. On both occasions, he played 90 minutes.

Among Fulham players, he had:

• the most touches with the ball

• the most passes into the final third

• the most recoveries

• + 0.28 xA, and would earn a DEFCON 2-pointer

He also met the threshold against Burnley.

During the pre-season, I said he would be this fullback unicorn, racking up clean sheets, attacking returns, AND defensive contributions (of course, in less volume than CBs, but hey, he’s a fullback, you need to be realistic).

Let’s hope he stays fit and that we get a chance to utilise him in some parts of the season.

Unfortunately, FDR doesn’t look too favourable at the moment.

By the way:

No further comment. Insiders know.

Data Crime of the Week

I confess I didn’t consume much content this week, so let’s do a timeless one.

Let’s rephrase it:

Emil has generated 55 chances this season. No other IF Brommapojkarna player created more. Plus, he ranks second only to his teammate Gustav in shots and OPTAs big chances, with 25 shots and 10 big chances.

You’ve seen variations of this a thousand times. It took me literally a minute to find it.

It’s not exactly a crime, but there are a few things about it that don’t sit right with me. The first is OPTA’s big chance. Disclaimer: I like the company and think it does a world of good for football data analytics. You just need to be careful when working with manually assigned data in FPL.

The definition of that metric states “A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score”. It’s vague and based on someone’s subjective judgment of what constitutes a reasonable chance to score.

Also, we only know that those players created chances and shots. We don’t know what kind of chances or shots they were. Always check:

• xG and xAG numbers

• the distribution of those actions on the shot map and pass map (the ratio of good/bad shots, shot zones, pass zones)

• whether those chances were from open play or set pieces

This will give you a much more accurate picture, not something that sounds useful but actually provides you with little.

This week, I published one of the most important deep dives of the season.

It’s about how to respond to injuries, bans, and players departing for tournaments, and it’s packed with specific examples, data analytics, and a detailed look at the teams that will be affected by AFCON.

Plus, there’s a lengthy section about Harry Wilson.

Or one that shows you exactly what it means when someone says the Premier League is increasingly competitive.

And that’s still not all — I also discuss Jérémy Doku, Cole Palmer and Nottingham Forest:

See you next week!