For this week’s free edition of the Data Dribble newsletter, I decided to serve up a fun, short appetiser before Thursday’s deep dive.
The initial idea was to dive into the data and pick 3 players who started the season with a bang, perhaps unexpectedly. You know – ignore the fact that it’s just a 4-game sample, treat it as an appreciation post that simply describes what’s happening on the pitch, and an opportunity to share some interesting numbers.
But then I went down a rabbit hole with Martin Ødegaard (£6.7m) and decided this would be exclusively about him.
Let’s do this.
Martin Ødegaard: Two plus eight equals ten
Look, I know he isn’t exactly a low-key player or a big revelation, but I often feel he doesn’t get the respect he deserves from a large chunk of the football community.
Some high-profile tacticos were even pretty vocal about him being a liability and about Arsenal being a better team without him, which is… a pretty audacious statement.
I disagree and think he was always highly influential in real life.
In fantasy, he wasn’t a viable pick most of the time because of the lack of goal threat, but this season his role shifted to a pure #10, and he suddenly found his way into 20% of FPL teams. Which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good idea, but he surely has the exposure now.
We now have a 6-season sample of Ødegaard in the Premier League, which is enough to say he most likely never poses a major goal threat, even when playing advanced. That assumption is based on games when he played a similar role.
So far this season, he’s on about 1.75 non-penalty shots and 0.30 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes (with 0.17 xG/shot), which looks enticing when you consider his creative numbers we’ll discuss in a minute. However, we’re in Gameweek 5, not Gameweek 15. If I had to make a bet, I’d say those numbers are inflated by favourable fixtures and limited minutes, and will regress, especially if he fails to maintain a solid shot volume.
Look at the shot map. It hints at why to stay cautious.
It’s just 6 shots.
Three of them out of the box.
Only one truly big chance from a central area.
Also, historical evidence:
❗ I looked at about 2,500 minutes of data from his advanced times in previous Arsenal seasons, and there was never a high volume of central attempts.
It’s a different team in a different context, so I don’t want to rule that possibility out.
But it’s an educated guess.
HOWEVER.
Although it’s difficult to predict how much he’ll regress (or whether he definitely will, though he likely will), he’s also an excellent chance creator…
In previous seasons, Ødegaard was highly influential creatively, producing expected assists in the 90th percentile for 23/24, 24/25, and 25/26 combined, across about 7,500 minutes.
As a pure #8, he averaged 0.25 xA per 90 from 207 passes that directly led to a shot. While he performs some set-piece duties, 77% of those came from open play. That’s a serious volume of chance creation.
💡 He clearly has a broad range of solutions in his repertoire. In recent times, he has loved playing vertical through balls from both half-spaces, as well as those nice diagonals from the right half-space to the far post.
All Arsenal fans reading this know.
There was much more, but these passes stood out.
So far this season, we’re seeing a slightly different version of Ødegaard.
He’s clearly closer to goal now, and his final passes reflect that. His (small sample size alert) xA shot up to 0.38 p90, and it’s clear why when you look beneath that number. The Norwegian has already directly created 12 shots, and played most of these passes high.
He still enjoys verticals from the right for the runners behind, but being close to the box certainly helps.
His average position for touches with the ball is higher than Rayan Cherki’s, Marcus Tavernier’s, or Bruno Fernandes’. Compared with last season, it’s about 5 metres higher. You might argue that this could be affected by Arsenal playing a higher block in those easy fixtures, but they weren’t, really. It was comparable to last season’s average.
💡 Almost 80% of his entries into the box are non-cross passes, many of which feed Bukayo Saka’s runs. The funny thing is, Saka does very little creating this season and just shoots from amazing positions. I like this new dynamic.
Ødegaard’s impact in the final third is immense. In fact, in the goal probability added model that measures how his touches with the ball increase the team’s chance to score, he ranks at the very top of the league. Playing for Arsenal certainly helps, but he directs the play, so give him the credit.
Oh, and then there’s his off-ball work.
What if I told you he’s the team’s most active tackler, and wins plenty of balls because he times them so well?
Or that he’s in the box a lot, and his number of touches there is on a level with elite Premier League strikers? Thanks to his intelligence, he can receive in dangerous areas and make something happen. Of course, it will be interesting to see how this evolves.
FPL prospects: Currently priced at £6.7m, he has moved from an absolute no-go to someone to consider.
I wouldn’t say you need to rip your team apart for him, and while he’s viable now, he wouldn’t rank among my top 5 midfielders, meaning my favourite Arsenal stack still involves either a defensive triple-up or a defensive double-up and Saka.
It’s still early, and those numbers will stabilise later – you can reasonably expect his creative numbers to be great, but his goal threat is still something to monitor.
Plus, there’s massive competition for those budget(ish) midfielders, so there are more ways to skin the cat. Marcus Tavernier costs £6.1m, Pascal Gross £5.7m, Elliot Anderson £6.3m, Enzo Fernández £6.9m, and I could go on.
On the other hand, picking a #10 from a clear title contender is hardly a mistake when everyone is healthy and playing well.
This is how Solio Analytics’ model ranks MIDs priced at £7 or fewer up until Gameweek 11:
That’s all for today.
Later this week, I plan to discuss several emerging trends arising from the confusing early-season noise. I’m noticing quite a few interesting things and can’t wait to share them with you.
See you very soon!
