Never in my career have I found evaluating teams as challenging as this Premier League season.
However, Gameweek 4 gave us a useful dose of new information.
I’m noticing things, and I can’t wait to have a much more accurate picture a few weeks after the international break, then start extracting real value around Gameweek 12. Especially for match-up analysis.
Anyway, for my team and plans, Gameweek 5 requires quite a lot of strategic thinking, so let’s get to it.
🍕 What’s on today’s menu?
A successful Free Hit (but inconsistent decision-making?)
What to do with Chris Richards, Harry Maguire, and Dominik Szoboszlai?
Arbeloa isn’t stupid: Is United’s triple up against FUL suddenly worse?
Do I need more Arsenal DEFs, or will Brighton score?
If Bukayo Saka keeps doing this, he has my attention
Chelsea and Bournemouth ideas
Round 5: Solvers vs my brain
GW5 upside or GW6 security?
And more!
Gameweek 4 Review
As usual, let’s start with a short recap.
In Gameweek 4, I was underexposed to Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool players, and I wanted to keep both Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) for this week’s clash against Fulham, so I decided to use a Free Hit.
The Daily Fantasy Sports player in me is certainly happy with a 98-pointer, a 9-point green arrow, and the fact that the new team outscored the original one.
It was a bit of a disorganised week.
I made a late decision to start Raya and Szoboszlai instead of Barcola and Kinský. Even though I got lucky and gained 7 points, I threw away a good process, as Bradley Barcola (£8.0m) started the game and Spurs had another solid(ish) defensive performance. Third in a row, actually.
I don’t want to do this too often – you can’t control what players do once the GW starts, but a single gameweek involves a lot of luck, and the outcome could go the other way. I’d be annoyed with myself if that happened.
It wasn’t an analytical mistake, as playing Raya and Szoboszlai in those match-ups, in stacks, and on-pitch link-up (or with a CoVar, as it’s modern to say these days) is hardly wrong, but it’s about maintaining some decision-making consistency throughout the season.
Other than that, nothing much to add.
The most important stuff was what happened in the Liverpool and Fulham game, along with Chelsea’s attackers continuing to produce, but because it’s relevant to my Gameweek 5 selection, we’ll discuss it later.
Gameweek 5 team: 3 areas to focus
Alright.
I’m returning to my old team with 3 free transfers, a Wildcard, and £0.0 in the bank:
Looking at it, several things immediately stand out:
1️⃣ I don’t want to start Chris Richards against my Leeds double-up of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Tarik Muharemovič
Reasoning: I don’t usually hedge unless it’s a very specific situation (for example, when saving a transfer matters more than sacrificing some EV), or when two players have high effective ownership and great ceilings.
I don’t think this is it.
Crystal Palace are ranked bottom of the league for xG conceded. I’m well aware that:
it’s a 4-game sample
one of the games was against Manchester City
Axel Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute last week against Ipswich
… but it still doesn’t make Richards someone I’d need to play and let him cap my team's ceiling.
Sure, I can imagine some extreme scenarios when he hauls:
Leeds conceded quite a few good shots from set-pieces this season (bottom 5 for xCG from it)
Richards met the DEFCON threshold in 50% of cases
… and was 1 defensive contribution short of meeting it against Fulham
… but there are also complete bust scenarios. Axel Disasi will obviously sit that one out, joining the first-choice keeper Dean Henderson, and potentially Jaydee Canvot, who was put on the stands by Pierre Sage.
Yeah, that really happened – the French manager put a 20-year-old player not on the bench, but on the stands, because of “sporting reasons”. ❗
In this turmoil, sharp betting markets (long-term profitable bettors) favour Leeds quite substantially. Check this prediction from Solio’s platform:
2️⃣ Benching my complete Brighton triple-up against Arsenal seems sensible.
At the same time, I don’t need to sell any of them, as they face Sunderland after the international break. The potential issue is that Diego Gómez might lose his place in the starting eleven before then.
Reasoning:
This is quite straightforward.
Arsenal had their first not-that-good defensive game against Sunderland, but that doesn’t make them suddenly poor. Also, I’m not really under pressure to start Pascal Groß (£5.6m) because my front six looks all right.
Some people will bench some ARS defenders this week because “they think Brighton will score”, but I haven’t read any good analysis explaining why that should happen yet.
Sure, it might, but it’s also wishful thinking.
As for Gómez: