Ollie Watkins’ explosion, budget game-changers, and the key signals to monitor
All ten GW20 games reviewed in depth
For generations, Douglas Adams has tried to convince us that 42 is the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything.
It’s not, at least in the FPL universe.
The answer to everything is apparently six-seven SEVENTEEN.
Declan Rice, Malick Thiaw, and Igor Thiago all produced 17-point hauls, and they’re definitely not players who’ve never been on our FPL radar, so some impressive scores were flying around because of that.
Excuse me, what is this sorcery?
You can add the Fulham v Liverpool stoppage-time thriller, where we thought Gakpo’s goal would be the winner—until Harrison Reed’s absolute rocket.
Let’s go through all the GW20 games in the context of FPL and discuss the most crucial points in depth:
Aston Villa 3:1 Nottingham Forest (1.59 - 0.89 xG, 1.70 - 0.52 xT)
Do you remember that iconic scene in The Wolf of Wall Street, where Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill pop those Lemmons 714s quaalude pills and then get hit hard by the delayed effect?
It sounds a helluva lot like Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) and Morgan Rogers (£7.6m).
I was one of those who started the season with Watkins, but I didn’t wait long enough to enjoy the highs.
Safe to say, Watkins skipped the tingle phase and went straight to the drool phase:
That’s a proper striker shot map. In terms of numbers (excluding the first five GWs of the season, which had a prolonged pre-season vibe), it’s been:
2.80 shots per 90
0.49 non-penalty xG per 90 (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout)
0.55 post-shot xG per 90
0.18 xG per shot
box touches in the 90th percentile
threat generated by runs in the 90th percentile
He still has a high percentage of his shots blocked, but his ability to progress the ball and his goal threat make him extremely dangerous these days. His minutes are improving, aided by his recent performances.
With Ekitiké nursing a hamstring injury and potentially missing the Arsenal game, some managers will opt for a straight switch from him to Watkins. It’s definitely one of the trends now:
Whether that’s a good solution for your team is a complex question, and there’s no clear answer without the full context. However, several things to keep in mind:
There are no weekend Premier League games. The Gameweek 22 deadline is on Saturday, the 17th, which means more time to rest
After Arsenal, Liverpool will face Burnley and Bournemouth
Liverpool will play on Thursday, which means we won’t likely hear from Slot again before the deadline
In the previous edition of the Thought Process series, I discussed how free transfer is the most valuable tool you have in this game and the opportunities it can create for you.
Before you confirm your transfer, make sure it’s worth it. You need a firm conviction that it serves a purpose and a clear understanding of what it means for your team in the long term.
This one is not an exception.
It’s fine to do that if your team dictates it, but also fine not to do that if you have an opportunity to address a different issue and wait for further updates.
In total isolation, Watkins is clearly a fine pick. Aston Villa will face Palace, Everton, Newcastle, Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton, Leeds, and Wolves, which might not sound like the best run, but it’s fine. Regular Data Dribble readers already know why.
Rogers had another great game creatively, but once again played centrally, which doesn’t bode well for his goal threat.
I’ve been circling around Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.3m) in my articles for quite some time, and he once again proved that he has been regularly getting into great goal-scoring positions this season. And there are some games in which he’ll deliver again.
Shame he’s at a pretty awkward price point and doesn’t fit into many structures out there, especially when many FPL managers are eyeing Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m) and Cole Palmer (£10.4m) when the time is right. Plus, it’s essentially the same price tag as Declan Rice’s (£7.2m), so…
After a period of some great defensive performances, Forest had four strange ones. Probably one of those teams that fell victim to shallow squad depth and minimal rotation during the hectic schedule.
Let’s see if they recover.
Brighton 2:0 Burnley (1.45 - 0.30 xG, 1.60 - 0.99 xT)
If you watched that game, it was likely because you were cheering for Bart Vergruggen’s (£4.5m) and Jan Paul van Hecke's (£4.5m) clean sheets.
Job done because Burnley created almost nothing. Van Hecke almost earned a DEFCON two-pointer too, but lost it after the final Sunday update.
But something else was occupying my mind—Charalampos Kostoulas (£4.8m) earned his first start of the season! He already has ten cameos, but we had the opportunity to see him in full action.
And the boy delivered.
If you’re interested in his scouting profile, I wrote one of the first pre-season newsletters (it’s a free edition) about him:
Kostoulas, nicknamed “Babis”, which you might find amusing if you’re Czech or Slovak, was very lively. He tried to dribble a lot, drew many fouls, was amazing in the air, and helped win many balls. And that’s still not the highlight.
He also recorded 0.61 xG (+ had a goal ruled out for offside), and although he didn’t convert his chances, he at least assisted Georginio Rutter’s (£5.6m) opener.
Speaking of Rutter, it wasn’t a bad punt in the GW20 landscape, but you can never be sure about his minutes, as there are about a million combinations of how Brighton can line up:
Kaoru Mitoma (£6.1m) lasted 72 minutes. He made several good runs and fought for balls, but had no impact on the final product, which is understandable given the length of his absence. Also, Pascal Gross (£5.5m) got about a quarter of an hour, which feels very 23/24.
Wolves 3:0 West Ham (1.87 - 0.25 xG, 1.10 - 1.28 xT)
Ouch.
