Transfer dribble #1: When Brighton buy, you drop everything
Charalampos Kostoulas, the Greek wonderkid.
The pre-season format of this will be as free-flowing as peak Kevin De Bruyne, covering Premier League transfers, all sorts of FPL stuff, or weird things people say about football data. Once we enter the regular season, it will be more about actionable fantasy advice, which will help you better understand the data and make sounder managerial decisions. So, bear with me.
Charalampos Kostoulas, remember the name
I’m a big fan of how Brighton’s management runs things.
During my professional career as Head of Analytics in the football industry, I’ve scouted a plethora of players who went on to become Premier League footballers. Or they’ll soon become one.
Sometime in 2017, I wrote a report on Viktor Gyökeres, a young Swedish striker, who was playing for Brommapojkarna (yes) at that time.
Another exciting prospect we were extensively scouting was a Dutchman named Jan Paul van Hecke. However, at that time, our biggest client was Slavia Prague, whose reputation was quite different eight years ago, and both players had greater ambitions even then. Brighton won the race both times.
So far this summer, the Seagulls have announced five new players, with an average age of 18 years and 10 months. One of the players is even named Yoon Do-young…
Apart from him, Tommy Watson, Nils Ramming, and Diego Coppola, who is not a mafia movie maker but a physically imposing centre-back, there’s Charalampos Kostoulas.
Last year, I dedicated my first pre-season thread to Yankuba Minteh, describing him as perhaps the most impressive young right winger in the world (not named Lamine Yamal). I wasn’t disappointed, as he went on to become one of the best creative wingers in the league.
Or in a way that hits it harder—one of the best creative wingers in the Premier League, despite this being his debut season. That’s rare for a 19-year-old.
Before you get too excited, this is a slightly different situation. Both Minteh and Kostoulas reportedly cost Brighton around €35 million, but I am much less confident we will see the Greek become a regular starter in the upcoming season.
Foremost, standing out in Eredivisie is more challenging than in the Greek Super League.
Minteh was 19 years old, while Kostoulas had just turned 18 about five weeks ago. That one year of development is very important for players this young.
The sample size is just 1,260 minutes. It tells you something, but it isn’t THAT substantial.
So, why take such a big risk? Even wealthier clubs would question that high transfer fee due to the significant uncertainty.
Well, there are several reasons. Their scouting department has a strong track record and conviction. We all know that. Plus, the forward market is terrible, with about a hundred teams competing for Benjamin Šeško, Viktor Gyökeres, and Hugo Ekitiké.
If you can identify talent early, the potential future financial gain from that transfer could be considerable, especially when you can analyse market conditions and predict how they might evolve.
And oh boy, what a player he is. At 17 years old, playing for Olympiacos Piraeus, he had already outgrown the league significantly.
He must develop elsewhere.
Kostoulas is not your average 17-year-old
The one super-important thing is that he is physically imposing. He certainly doesn’t look like your typical teenager. He underwent more headers than 97% of other players in his position, and he posted a success rate in the 79th percentile. Considering that a player’s physical peak usually occurs around 24-25 years of age, this is pretty impressive.
Overall, he undergoes many duels per game with a notably above-average success rate. Additionally, he is a rapid and fantastic runner who is difficult to stop. He was one of the most fouled players in the Super League, being fouled about three times per game.
What is important is that these fouls usually moved his team into a very favourable position. He posted extraordinary results in an advanced data model, which tracks how his runs with the ball increase the team’s chance of scoring a goal.
He isn’t a 1-on-1 dribbler type of player, as he lacks the technical ability to consistently beat an opponent, but he can drive the ball into advanced areas and is difficult to stop doing so.
His running and carrying immediately catch your attention.
Another aspect is his maturity and impressive movement in the box. Not only can he receive in dangerous areas, but he can also create chances for himself.
He averaged 3 shots and 0.41 open-play expected goals per 90 minutes. Pretty good results for a number nine. Except that isn’t his primary position. He played most of his minutes as a number 10. Apparently, he can also play as a number nine, on the wings, and some even say he would handle the box-crashing number 8 role. So, let’s see.
Even running from deep areas, he was able to find himself in great goal-scoring opportunities, as the impressive xG number suggests. Out of 41 shots, only 5 came from outside the box.
And only 4 shots from within the box were taken from the wide angle, the rest of them centrally. His first instinct is to draw the ball close to the goal. There are almost no unnecessary shots from the wide or long-range efforts.
Also, the variety was fine. He scored:
3 headers (2 from open play, one from set piece)
4 open play shots with the right foot (he shoots with the left very rarely, and poorly)
What now?
Even though this quote from Fabian Hürzeler suggests he might stay in the team…
… there’s still a lot of work ahead of him.
The adaptation process won’t be easy, as the qualitative gap between the leagues is huge. Even though he may eventually take on the role of the now departed João Pedro, it is much more likely that Georginio Rutter will begin there, assuming no further reinforcements arrive.
Also, Brajan Gruda played the same role at Mainz during the 2023/2024 Bundesliga campaign, and Matt O’Riley can also operate there, although he is likely better suited to a deeper position. Let’s not forget about players returning from loans—Julio Enciso and Facundo Buonanotte. Another Greek, Stefanos Tzimas, is a different type of player, and they can complement each other.
The transfer window will stay open for quite some time, and there’s a whole pre-season still to be played, so let’s see how things will shape in the next couple of months.
Many believe Kostoulas will be able to rotate behind Rutter and Welbeck, and will be gradually introduced into the team. His potential is certainly massive.
He is definitely not an early pick for FPL managers, unless something extraordinary occurs during the pre-season (and even then, fixtures look meh). Hürzeler will already face a tough time dividing game time across attacking roles, and in some cases, Kostoulas might even be a consideration for the 2026/2027 season.
Well, there you have it. I had intended this to be a short format, but I got too excited about yet another prodigy. Next week, I hope to cover some more interesting topics at once.
Until then.