Mateta went berserk, Gyökeres’ paradox, and comfy Arsenal. What else is there?

This time, we will focus mainly on forwards, but also cover some other players...

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The Premier League’s landscape can change rapidly, making the first week after the international break a period of uncertainty and high expectations for what is to come. Some things change. Others, which we have already discussed extensively here on Data Dribble, do not, as was clearly evident over the past few days.

I wanted to share some of the most interesting takes from this weekend. Of course, it’s all about using that information in the best way possible in FPL.

Or, for example, to support your betting pursuits if that’s your thing.

Riccardo Calafiori: What the…

I’m officially urging FPL Towers to let us pick four players from the same team — because from GW9 onwards, I’ll be fielding the Gabriel–Timber–Calafiori–Saka quartet every week if I am allowed.

Last week, I discussed all possible Arsenal picks and debated Timber versus Calafiori, arguing that the former offers a better balance of creative and attacking threat, which makes his performance more sustainable in the long term.

I also believe that in terms of the impact he has on his team, Timber is probably a more important player (and possibly less prone to rotation, but that’s just a guess).

Calafiori is all about absurd goal threat, which is meant to regress to more sensible levels. I still hold that view, but as a curious person, I delved a bit deeper into data and tactics to get an even better picture.

If you watched the weekend’s Fulham game, you might get the impression that it isn’t entirely fair. And I don’t mean him being a handsome, tall and rich Italian guy with great hair and a refined taste in fashion.

I mean, it is not, but let’s rather talk about a guy who invented (or Arteta did?) the whole new football position, which is impossible to name if you don’t want to sound too cringey.

After GW8, Calafiori averages:

• 2.35 non-penalty shots (more than Gordon, Mbeumo, Martinelli, and Johnson had last season)

• 0.24 non-penalty expected goals (that would be about 75th percentile for wingers…)

• 0.11 xG per shot

• 2.70 entries into the box (Eberechi Eze is on 2.90)

• 4.20 touches in the box (same as Ekitiké and Bowen, more than Mateta and Isak…)

Source: Fotmob.com

I’m sorry, but I find it mindblowing that one of the world’s top defending teams has a full-back with such an attacking threat. Remember, they only conceded 4.80 xG across a tricky fixture run.

Although I told you that those numbers WILL drop, can we estimate by how much? Well, we can’t be certain, but we can say he will stay a threat if Arsenal continues playing as they are.

When Arsenal build up high, which happens quite often, they do so in a 3-2-5 formation, with Calafiori inverting into the half-space between the lines. At that moment, he’s at the same height as Eze, sometimes even higher. He then makes various runs behind the defence or into the space, creating a threat in the final third. The result is often that he is advanced enough to receive passes or win a second ball in areas from which he can take a shot.

And that’s not all. On the ball, his first instinct is to drive it forward himself. In the goal probability added model evaluating his carries, he’s the 5th best defender in the Premier League, constantly pushing the ball into the final third.

While he’s not a player who would frequently reach a DEFCON threshold, one thing surprised me. Although he often operates in advanced positions, he has a high volume of ball recoveries in deeper areas of the pitch — his numbers are more typical of a defensively oriented fullback than someone who plays that advanced.

He’s also dominant in the air, though it’s true that Gabriel and Timber pose a greater threat from attacking set pieces, while Calafiori mainly contributes with defensive headers.

At some point during the season (possibly around Christmas), Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ben White will get a nod in the starting eleven. However, there will be hauls from both Timber and Calafiori moving forward. Ultimately, it’s about achieving a good balance within your team.