All you need to know about GW8 Wildcard (and why we must discuss Estêvão)

The international break is over. Let’s get back to the action.

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Coming back from the second international break of the season feels somewhat like a fresh start for many of us.

Not only will there be another wave of wildcards, but we are also entering a 6-week period to prepare for the second major fixture swing of the season.

Although we will need to endure another international break halfway through November (just after GW11), we will gather more essential data to identify trends and signals. This time, the new information will be far more reliable than earlier in the season.

Let’s revisit the current landscape to get a good sense of things, whether you're using your wildcard or simply trying to navigate upcoming gameweeks.

I’ll also discuss some popular topics, such as Haaland vs Salah vs both, whether it is time to buy Bukayo Saka, and some other good stuff…

Teams to target

With 7 gameweeks of data, we have some overview of the team’s attacking and defensive performances, how they play, and what their strengths and weaknesses are.

There’s still a lot of noise, but if you can put proper context to data, there’s always something you can work with. Foremost, it helps us identify good fixture runs to target. Then you figure out the rest:

• GW8 to GW13 period “essentials”: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Bournemouth

• GW8 to GW13 period teams open to interpretation: Brighton, Leeds, West Ham, Everton, Burnley, Wolves

• GW13 fixture swing: mainly Arsenal, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Newcastle, City, United

The quartet in italics should attract significant attention, as their picks are here for the long term.

Let’s begin with them.

Arsenal: A decision paralysis

The Gunners are the perfect example of the fact that in FPL, there’s rarely a one-size-fits-all solution.

I would like to tell you, “Hey, put Saka, Gabriel, and Raya into your team”, but that’s simply not possible without knowing more about your team, your plans, and a million other things.

However, if there’s one Arsenal player I would really hate not having, it’s Gabriel (£6.3m).

Look, I get all the Timber hype, and I’ll talk about him in a moment. Still, the Brazilian is one of those players from a currently very limited pool of feel-good players who are getting 90 minutes each game, actually perform well, and make great sense to own.

• You want an Arsenal defender: They allow the fewest dangerous chances, being ranked the best in the xG conceded metric with just 4.39 xGC, or 0.63 xGC per 90 minutes. Of course, they faced some teams that struggle offensively, but we have enough historical evidence showing they are one of the best defences in the world.

• You want a reliable Arsenal defender: He’s the most utilised player in their team. 7 x 90 minutes.

• You want an attacking threat: Along with Timber, he has the most attempts from corner kicks.

• You want some DEFCONs: He will get +2 points in games against teams whose plan in the final third of the pitch involves a lot of crossing.

I’m not saying Timber or Calafiori are poor picks. You just have to accept that they might occasionally get benched in future. If you’re aiming for a double Arsenal defence and prefer the explosive upside over a boring floor with Raya, both are good options. However, if I had to choose just one, it would be Gabriel.

Timber (£5.9m) vs Calafiori (£5.7m)

From what I see now, the Dutch player seems to combine both creative and goal threat, which should make his performances more sustainable. So far, Calafiori hasn’t created much. I know he has 2 assists, but you need to check both situations, as they were somewhat random.

His threat stems from arriving in some fantastic goal-scoring positions—he averages 2.41 non-penalty shots and 0.30 non-penalty xG, which is an absurd number, and I highly doubt it will stay this high.

These are the figures that great wingers produce over a large sample size. For instance, Ismaïla Sarr, Bukayo Saka, or Kaoru Mitoma performed similarly last season.

Mind-blowing start to the season, especially considering that many of Arsenal’s opponents had undeniable defensive quality.

We all understand it’s not just about Gabriel, Timber, Calafiori, and Raya:

1️⃣ We also have the Viktor Gyökeres (£9.1m) vs Bukayo Saka (£9.9m) debate.

2️⃣ And with Martin Ødegaard expected to be out for 4 to 8 weeks, there’s a case for owning Eberechi Eze (£7.6m).

3️⃣ Arsenal have already generated 4.48 xG from set-pieces, with Declan Rice (£6.5m) taking more than half of them. Additionally, in some matches, he wins quite a few balls, which is obviously good for DEFCONs.

Let’s start from the back. I know that Rice will always have a good assist potential, but:

• His goal threat is minimal, with only four shots so far (two of them inside the box)

• I suspect he won’t get too many defensive contributions during that impressive fixture run

• There are many other good picks within the Arsenal team. It seems like he carries a high opportunity cost

• He’s £6.5m, and you can find many other viable midfield options in the same price bracket, or even considerably lower

It doesn’t feel right.

As for the Gyökeres, Saka, and Eze, it’s a bit of a schizophrenic situation—while it’s clear that having offensive coverage makes sense, I don’t believe any of those players is a must-have on their own.

A team can work without Gyökeres.

A team can work without Saka.

It’s about which other players in their respective positions you favour, the structure you want to maintain, your future plans, available chips, transfers saved, and everything else that is covered under the “it’s team-dependent, bro” umbrella.

Gyökeres is one of the most sold players this GW, which is a very luxurious move in most cases. You are selling a nailed-on number nine from a title contender, who enters a fantastic run of fixtures.

He’s definitely a player who can score 10+ goals in his debut Premier League season, and he’ll likely get them against opponents from the lower half of the league table.

If you’re looking to sell him, you should make sure you’ll:

• get a much better player(s)

• set yourself to maximise your EV over the long term

… ideally a combination of both. And that’s not an easy task.

Also, I believe Fulham is a better match-up than most realise. I’ll cover this in the next edition of the Thought Process series, as I own the player.

The Saka versus Eze situation is a real headache. You want to get it right because it’s a crucial position in your team—likely a first, second, or third midfielder—but we don’t quite know how Odegaard's injury will affect the overall dynamics.

Not in the sense that his absence would make the team significantly weaker, nor that it would suddenly make both guys poor choices, but rather, what roles will they play?