GW23 Thought Process: Let's talk about chips
Earlier wildcard or late one? And when to use Free Hit? (+ Rayan analysis)
Earlier this week, when I was listing those 8 frameworks for handling bad runs, I forgot to mention one.
Don’t check the LiveFPL app in the 90th minute, as Djordje Petrovič can go from 10 points to 2 real quick.
It’s nice to have a running joke here on Data Dribble, but at the same time… not so much. Unfortunately, I always have other issues to address, so I need to endure this until I wildcard, or hope for an occasional Martin Dúbravka masterclass.
At least it was my favourite youngster, Charalampos Kostoulas, who wiped out that clean sheet.
Look at his face. It was at this moment that he knew it was over.
Anyway, I ended last week with a tiny green arrow, so I can’t really complain given what a Gameweek it was, and two of my midfielders started from the bench and produced lovely 1-pointers.
I feel Gameweek 23 is one of the more problematic GWs of the season and could end up badly for my team. At the same time, from GW25 onwards, things should be much better. So I just need to think about how to get through the next two.
What exactly are the issues?
I feel I need to carefully consider the early wildcard versus the WC32 wildcard. I’d rather postpone it.
I have triple City—probably the worst possible one. What now?
I likely have no bench this week unless I make a transfer.
Despite all that, I’d rather not make a transfer…
Let’s assess all of this carefully.
To make informed decisions moving forward, we need to summarise the situation regarding future Blank and Double Gameweeks. That’s where the fun starts.
Here’s what we know based on current predictions.
What blank Gameweeks will there be?
There will be three of those.
Note that I use predictions from Planet FPL—those guys have a good track record of predicting BGWs/DGWs. If you want a deeper dive into how the fixtures are moved, I recommend some of their podcasts.
Still, it’s just an educated guess about how things could unfold.
Blank Gameweek 31: Clashes with the EFL Cup finals. This is straightforward—there will be two blank fixtures, and we have a pretty good idea which one it will be:
If Arsenal win the semi-finals vs Chelsea, Wolves vs Arsenal will be blank (possibly forming DGW26), with about a 94% chance.
If City win the semi-finals vs Newcastle, Manchester City vs Palace will be blank, with about a 91% chance (let’s assume it will form DGW36).
If Chelsea advance, then Everton vs Chelsea will be blank.
If Newcastle advance, then Newcastle vs Sunderland will be blank.
We will know by the Gameweek 25 deadline.
Blank Gameweek 34: Clashes with the FA Cup semi-finals. There will be 3 or 4 blanks, most likely (46 vs 43% chance).
Most likely teams to blank are: Arsenal, Brighton, Burnley, Palace, Chelsea, Liverpool, City, and Newcastle
Blank Gameweek 37: There’s a small chance that the Liverpool vs Villa game will be moved (to DGW36?) due to the FA Cup final/Europa League final.
What double Gameweeks can we expect?
Those blanks need to go somewhere:
Double Gameweek 26/27: It will happen if the Premier League follows a similar pattern to last season. If Arsenal reach the EFL cup final:
Arsenal: Brentford (A), Wolves (A)
Wolves: Forest (A), Arsenal (H)
If Chelsea reach the final, then it would be:
Chelsea: Leeds (H), Everton (A)
Everton: Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (A)
Double Gameweek 33: The assumption is that this will be the biggest double gameweek of the season. Teams that will blank in 34 will double here, as their fixtures will likely move forward.
Double Gameweek 36: Smaller double (though there’s some chance it will actually be a bigger one) might be for Crystal Palace (EVE, mci) and Manchester City (BRE, CRY).
What guidelines to follow
What to do with all that information?
