From Liverpool to Spurs: Complete guide for the 26/27 FPL season, part 2

10 Premier League teams analysed from an FPL standpoint

Welcome to part 2 of our in-depth pre-season guide covering all 20 Premier League clubs!

I’ll discuss:

• Their strengths and weaknesses

• How appealing their opening fixtures are

• The best picks

• The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats

• What we need to pay attention to

It’s a two-part series, with each club reviewed in alphabetical order.

So, it’s technically “from Hull to Spurs”, but having Liverpool in the title makes it better to market. Sorry, guys. Sorry, Hull fans.

Anyway, this aims to provide a broader perspective on things.

Check part one below if you haven’t had a chance:

Let’s do this.

Hull City

When I spoke about Coventry last week, I noted that each of the three newly promoted teams approached squad-building differently in the summer transfer market.

At that time, Coventry had seemingly taken the most conservative approach, keeping the core together and adding to the squad without overdoing it. But then they announced the signing of the striker duo Taiwo Awoniyi and Sidiki Chérif, which raised the bill. Despite big spending, some of the new players are quite wild bets.

Hull and Ipswich have gone all in, each in slightly different ways.

Hull are actually being pretty smart in the market.

In the first wave of transfers, they brought in squad players Matt Target and Jack Butland, and announced the return of 22-year-old defensive midfielder Óscar Zambrano.

Then they went for Hidemasa Morita, an experienced player, whom I discussed in one of my previous articles.

Spoiler alert: I like him.

Hidemasa Morita and Hayden Hackney: Do they improve their teams?

They also signed Joe Gelhardt, a number ten who played a key part in their promotion campaign, on a permanent deal, and a host of young players, whose average age is just under 22:

• Lucas Herrington: 19 (Colorado Rapids, CB)

• Jens Hjerto-Dahl: 20 (Tromso, #10)

• Nobel Mendy: 21 (Rayo Vallecano, CB)

• Lucas Gourna-Douath: 23 (Le Havre/RB Salzburg, #6/#8)

• Elliot Stroud: 24 (Mjällby AIF, LWB/LW)

• Konstantinos Tzolakis: 23 (Olympiakos, GK)

They know that saving the Premier League will be an extremely difficult task after one of the most improbable promotions in recent Championship history, and they are building for the future by signing cheap players with strong potential and resale value.

You can’t really argue against that.

However, you can’t expect them not to struggle.

In the expected points table, which combines their performance on both ends of the pitch and distributes points accordingly, they ranked 20th out of 24 teams.

Twentieth.

More than 30 xPoints behind Coventry and Ipswich.

💡 They allowed 76 non-penalty xG and 61 actual non-penalty goals, the 5th-most (tied with Wrexham).

Only Watford, Leicester, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday conceded more goals.

In Hull’s case, that xGC stems from a massive volume of shots allowed from central positions close to goal, with so many really big chances, especially when they defended in a low block and when defending set-pieces.

While Morita and Tzolakis improve the team as a whole, their other defensive signings, Mendy, Herrington, and Gourna-Douath, are all young and need to adapt to Premier League standards (same as Morita and Tzolakis, but they should do it faster).

It is what it is.

---

🔋 Current status: Target them as much as possible

✅ Viable GW1 picks: None. If you’re convinced that they beat Coventry and are on Bench Boost 2, then probably Oli McBurnie or Joe Gelhardt

❌ Picks to avoid: All of them

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None at the moment

Things to watch:

🥇 Their defensive numbers
🥈 How they will line up with so many new players
🥉 Positional weaknesses and match-up-specific factors (for example, set-piece defending) to extract even more value from your attacking picks facing Hull

Ipswich

While I think there’s only a teeny-tiny chance Hull will stay up – and they are well aware of that – Ipswich’s management apparently refuse to accept that scenario.

Not only did they manage to keep all the key players, except perhaps Ivan Azón, but they also went big in the transfer market, bringing in:

Emersonn
Julio Enciso
Abdul Fatawu
Florentino Luis
Saša Lukič
Kjell Scherpen
Daizen Maeda
Abdoul Ouattara
Issa Diop
… or making Cedric Kipre one of their own

• The goal is clear: to buy players who can instantly improve the team across all positions. And. Not. Get. Relegated.

That’s a double-edged sword, because you’re betting that the adaptation period for it all to click will be offset by pure player quality, which isn’t always enough.

From that bunch, several can become super influential.

Enciso had an amazing season at Strasbourg. Luis is a high-volume ball-winner every team needs and is already adapted to the Premier League. Fatawu was influential even in a poor Leicester team. Maeda can be productive.

Kjell Scherpen is important because… well, having a great keeper can save you a lot of points across the season. And I could go on, as every player makes sense and fulfils a clear goal in that team.

However, the one I like most is Emersonn (£5.5m).

He’s a 22-year-old Brazilian striker who spent the last season with Ligue 1 side Toulouse, scoring 6 goals and assisting 2 across about 1,700 minutes.

Having grown to 193 cm, he’s strong in the air, which is handy for a team that needs to improve their set-pieces. In the Championship, they ranked 6th for xG and 13th for actual goals scored.

He averaged 2.80 non-penalty shots and 0.42 non-penalty xG, which are close to 75th percentile numbers in the top five leagues. It wasn’t random, as he was above average in other key metrics, such as the quality and volume of receiving in the box and touches inside it.

Of his 52 shots, 25 were with his right foot, 12 with his left, and 15 were headers, which is a nice variety.

He’s still raw and not an FPL pick yet, given the opportunity cost and uncertainty, but I like what I see.

Emersonn’s shot map (source: fotmob.com)

Compared to Hull, their picks are much more popular because of their Gameweek 1 fixture at home against Sunderland, which suits the Bench Boost 1 strategy.

Before the pre-season began, Dara O’Shea (£4.0m) looked like a nice, nailed DEFCON pick, but he’s playing as the right-back under Gary O’Neil.

That makes Issa Diop (£4.0m) likely the best Ipswich DEFCON pick. If you’re more inclined to chase attacking returns, there’s Leif Davis (£4.0m). Florentino (£5.0m) will rack up DEFCONs, but he wouldn’t be my top choice from his price bracket.

---

🔋 Current status: Useful for Bench Boost 1. Other than that, fixture to target

✅ Viable GW1 picks: Issa Diop and Leif Davis. Dara O’Shea if there’s a hint he starts as centre-back

❌ Picks to avoid: All those new attacking players – it’s either pointless, or their xMins are shady. Or both. There are also better picks than Luis and Scherpen

📆 Fixture swing to attack: None

Things to watch (basically copy & paste from the Hull section):

🥇 Their defensive numbers
🥈 How they will line up with so many new players…
🥉 … and how quickly they can find some chemistry in the final 3d

Leeds

We’re moving up a tier, reader.

Not long ago, I discussed them in depth in one of the articles:

The reason is that I think they could potentially do well this season – they kept the team together, and their transfers make so much sense. To remind you, they’ve signed James Trafford (£5.0m), Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m), and Harry Wilson (£6.5m) so far.

Those players fit them like a glove.

Big, fat Trafford’s gloves that will save all those shots.

Anyway, let’s recap those picks, because there are plenty.

This is how Solio Analytics ranks them for the first 8 gameweeks:

Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m) should prove to be a valuable asset. Firstly, let me say that Leeds’ defence performed pretty well despite goalkeeping issues they most likely won’t have this season.

Last season, Leeds ranked 14th for expected goals conceded, according to the StatsBomb model via FantasyFootballScout, but the gap was tiny – just 6 xGC separated them from the top 5. In some games, they will have pretty nice clean-sheet odds.

The Bosnian centre-back averaged 10.90 defensive contributions per 90 at Sassuolo, mostly thanks to clearances inside and outside the box, with a fair share of aerial ones. I’d also expect him to attack those loose balls when he won’t be heading them. He’ll be hitting the DEFCON threshold consistently.

So, that’s clean-sheet potential + DEFCON potential… and what about attacking prospects? Leeds’ absurd volume of aerials under Farke will suit him in the final third too – last season, he had a 78% win rate in set-piece aerials, placing him in the 95th percentile.

He scored two goals in a team that had the 3rd-worst set-piece expected goals…

Joe Rodon (£4.5m):

Muharemovič’s FPL son. Again, he should do well across all three defensive pillars I mentioned above. One of the very best DEF picks at that price point.

Leeds signed Nico Elvedi today, who is capable of playing in all three centre-back roles in a back 3, but spent the most time in the centre.

I’m not sure he will slot right in, but it’s one thing to monitor closely.

Anton Stach (£6.0m) and Harry Wilson (£6.5m):

For me, Stach is better value than Harry Wilson, who costs £0.5 million more, but I’m not sure I’d want either in my GW1 draft.

As for Wilson:

• He costs £6.5m, which puts him in a crowded category of viable picks

• We need a bit more information on his minutes

• His production from last season is tough to replicate, as he doesn’t find himself in good positions in the box too often. He offsets this with his shot volume, but it’s still too risky – a classic case of wait-and-see

Stach will likely produce steady returns, but has a similar problem to Wilson – too many better or similar picks priced the same or less. I’m leaning towards avoid.

Jaka Bijol (£5.0m), Jayden Bogle (£4.5m), James Justin (£4.5m):

Not bad in isolation, but not better than Muha and Rodon.

Ethan Ampadu (£5.5m):