Welcome back, reader!
It’s the second consecutive week of building Wildcard and Free Hit teams on Data Dribble, and not much has changed in the landscape, the general uncertainty, or my preferred approach to building them.
If you’re interested in some (game) theory, I recommend checking last week’s deep dive:
This time, we’ll discuss different picks and focus on some player and team data/specifics.
Building the Wildcard
For me, a few things are non-negotiable for the Gameweek 4 wildcard: structure is king, and you need to load up on Arsenal. Obvious, I know. Still, this section will let me highlight a few things I find fascinating, so… don’t skip it.
In this game we love, no one is truly essential, and you can’t really commit a crime against FPL by not picking someone. However, from a purely strategic perspective, does it really make sense to snub a triple-up from a team that is so dominant when on unlimited transfers?
Arsenal’s defensive superiority against Coventry and Aston Villa was nothing unusual, but allowing Chelsea just 0.39 xG, with ZERO shots from central areas inside the box, is a major statement.
They then followed up by conceding 0.22 xG away to Napoli. The Italian side managed just two attempts from inside the box: one had 0.08 xG and the other 0.06 xG. In “eye-test” terms, both shots came from a wide angle and were blocked.
Averaging 0.04 xG per shot conceded is also simply absurd. I’m well aware we’re discussing a tiny sample of 4 games, but if you account for previous defensively dominant seasons and the fact that they miss William Saliba, it’s strong information to work with.
Their defensive prowess isn’t anything new.
What about the attack?
Poor Napoli conceded 4.1 xG (!) from 26 shots, including 14 central attempts and 3 inside the 6-yard box. In the Premier League, they have about 5 xG, which ranks them 6th to 9th, depending on what model you use, though that is not very useful information at this stage of the season.
Currently, their xG is 73% open play and 27% set pieces. Last season, their share of set pieces was around 33%, so it’s probably on course to end up somewhere similar. It’s not like Arsenal are creating so many more open-play shots than last season, as I often heard.
But yeah, it was true against Napoli.
Anyway, probably the most interesting news about their attack is Martin Ødegaard (£6.7m) playing the #10 role. In the distant past, he wasn’t that dangerous even when playing more advanced, but it seems he’s enjoying life at the moment.
In the Champions League game, he created 6 passes leading directly to a shot (1.33 xA) and is extremely creative in the Prem, putting up strong numbers: he’s racking up box passes, key passes, and xA even though Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka share all the set pieces, and there’s nothing left for him.
He also has 6 shots, 3 of them inside the box. For just £6.7m, those numbers are promising, provided he continues to produce them in a similar fashion, which we don’t know yet.
If I were to rank my favourite Arsenal stacks, it would probably still be:
🥇 3x DEF/wRaya or 2x DEF + Bukayo Saka (very close, both nice)
🥈 2x DEF + Martin Ødegaard
🥉 2x DEF/wRaya + Ødegaard/Saka
Saka’s routes to points as per FPL Copilot
At this stage, I think it’s worth considering paying £2.8 million more for Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) and his elite production, set-pieces, and penalties, and to hop off when needed, rather than the other way round.
It’s structurally more convenient.
But it also depends on a million other things, so if you like Ødegaard-draft, why not. In defence, Gabriel, Calafiori, and Konsa are all great, depending on your structural needs (mainly the Haaland vs no-Haaland question).
Kai Havertz is an influential player in real life, but I don’t think he offers better value than the budget FWDs we can choose from, and I’m not too keen to pour another £7.5 million into the FWD position.
Chelsea picks and the United problem
Another obvious group is Chelsea, as they face Hull at home in Gameweek 4.
In a nutshell, I don’t mind tripling up on them, especially when you captain Cole Palmer (£9.7m) or João Pedro (£7.7m), as you’re essentially betting that they will do really well and exposing yourself to extreme outcomes.
Plus, there’s a pretty tangible link-up between that front three.
I wrote a standalone free article about Chelsea this week that answers the most burning questions:
Now, on to the more niche picks.