Even though I’m strongly against having a second batch of chips in FPL, as it introduces even more unnecessary variance into a game that’s already heavy on it, there’s one thing you can’t deny:
💡 Each season, the popular strategies will be entirely different, as there’s no single best option in general (as kids say, there’s no optimal), and they will always depend on how the fixtures fall, pricing, and other dynamics outside the scope of this article.
That’s why I won’t list all the pros and cons of using the chip in Gameweek 3 this season.
It’s… team dependent.
❗ Play one of those chips if:
you have planned for it and optimised your team for GWs 1 and 2 accordingly
you can’t sensibly buy Erling Haaland
… or if you’re facing an unbearable amount of problems and it makes sense
If you’re FOMOing because everyone seems to be doing it, circle back to what I’ve just said: there’s no right or wrong time to play it, and because someone else is doing it doesn’t mean it’s the best solution for your team.
Wildcard 3: Better safe than sorry
Alright.
Firstly, let’s set the general theme for Wildcard 3:
Because we still have only 2 weeks of information, which is essentially nothing in football and data analytics (essentially a prolonged pre-season), I would build an extremely safe version of the draft.
1️⃣ The structure should be flexible enough to withstand injuries and suspensions and to allow you to adapt to future trends. Because you’re losing the strongest chip, you need to be able to solve problems with free transfers easily
2️⃣ To add to that, most of the players should have secure xMins
3️⃣ It should cover all the high-EO captaincy options
4️⃣ Even though standout fixture swings are difficult to identify this season, you should take them into account, as there are still fixtures to target
5️⃣ You probably have 2 FTs, so it’s okay(ish) to book one if you meet all the previous conditions
That’s basically it.
Now, the more granular view.
To address that uncertainty, look for well-known facts that help you make an educated guess about whether a trend will continue.
The best example of this is Arsenal’s defence.
It’s something you don’t need to ponder too much – we have a several-season sample showing they are likely the best defence in the world, the team has remained largely the same (with some smart additions), and even if you factor some kind of penalty for Williams Saliba’s injury, it should be safe to play their defensive double up or triple up.
Solio Analytics fixture ticker showing predicted goal difference
Another example would be:
Manchester City’s attack: Individual quality is simply too high not to produce regularly
Brentford: 8th for non-penalty xPoints last season (minimal gap from 6th), the core of their team stayed together, smartly improving/adding depth in key positions
Chelsea: A lot of changes, BUT the front three consist of high-performing, Premier League-proven players, and Xabi Alonso has a good track record. Fade defence
Manchester United: As for the offence, something similar to Chelsea, just with questionable coaching 😉
Liverpool: Uhm, something similar to above, but with… better coaching
You get the idea.
If the core of your Wildcard 3 team is strong, you can then add a few more maverick picks, but still sensible ones. Although Newcastle is going through a rebuild and you really don’t know how it will pan out at this point, you can go for proven picks to target favourable fixtures.
FPL 101.
This may seem super simple to some of you, but you can still make a lot of mistakes there if you’re not careful.
Building the Wildcard draft
And the final level of granularity: players themselves.
The most important decisions first. Things like:
Which premiums and structure to choose?
How to tackle Arsenal: Raya, yes or no? Konsa, yes or no? Double up or triple up? Just defence, or add Bukayo Saka?
Manchester City players to balance targeting Coventry without losing future EV from their shady xMins
Etc.
Ideally, I’d like to own both a £4.0 keeper and a £4.0 defender to put as much money as possible into the starting eleven, but there’s a factor named Ezri Konsa…
Arsenal defender with a £4.4 million price tag, offset by the fact that we don’t know when or if he slots into the starting 11. We can just make assumptions. Something happens, and then you have 3 other defenders and 1 budget solution. And if one of your starting defenders gets injured, you can get into trouble real quick.
However, if you follow the “utmost safety” script and you’re sensible with your free transfers, I believe picking Konsa is fine.
There’s also this news:
All the main City assets should be fine to start against Coventry, but there’s absolutely no guarantee about their xMins, either in that game or going forward.
That’s the fact. Even Enzo Maresca probably isn’t sure at the moment, so you can’t be either. Because of that, I’m fine with treating one City spot as a one-week punt and booking a transfer, provided you’ve been disciplined and have 2 already saved.
Haaland is essentially a 90-minute man at this stage of the season.
I’d also play Rayan Cherki (£7.7m) because I think he offers good upside, even though his xMins are likely to be around 75. That’s fine against Coventry. On Free Hit, it’s obviously a City triple-up, but I don’t like it when wildcarding because it’s a ticking time bomb.
Alternatively, you can go with Nico O’Reilly, but in a Konsa draft, it doesn’t feel too safe.
Bukayo Saka: Yes or no?
The big question for me is whether to include Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) in the draft. Let’s discuss that, then compare Saka and no-Saka drafts. Then we’ll do a Free Hit team.