Bruno isn’t getting DEFCONs. So what?
Bruno Fernandes, Xavi Simons, and playing a "good FPL"
While editing this article, I realised that if you read it, you’re in for one big rant.
Well, I’m a Spurs fan.
A Spurs fan who thinks the Assistant Manager chip was a genius idea compared with counting random defcons and having to play chips in the first half of the season.
I’m angry by default now.
Can Simons do a Wirtz?
Florian Wirtz’s (£8.4m) transformation from a laughing stock (which I found extremely disrespectful) to one of the best creative midfielders in the Premier League, AND a player whose decision-making in the box is on a par with the best strikers, is one of my favourite stories this season.
You saw what his injury minutes before the Nottingham Forest game did to Liverpool. Up until that stoppage-time frenzy, they created almost nothing.
Look, I’m well aware that much of that struggle was simply down to losing an important player a few minutes before the game, which threw their entire game plan into chaos, but trust me, Wirtz’s quality had a huge say in it.
The question writes itself: Will Xavi Simons (£6.5m) make himself similarly important?
And is he even close?
One reason Wirtz’s transition to Premier League football was slow-ish was that Liverpool were in a state of chaos.
Well, Spurs… it’s twice as bad, mate.
You can’t imagine how difficult it is to play for that team right now, trust me. And if you’re adapting to a much higher-quality league and settling in, it’s even harder. There weren’t even basics, like a settled starting eleven. And the moment you’ve started to get used to things, boom, Thomas Frank is no longer your coach, and you’re forced to play in a new role (more on that later).
But he was slowly getting there.
In one of my pre-season articles, I described him as someone who:
… works hard, recovers many balls, and then, in the same spell of possession, creates something very dangerous. He can execute all kinds of vertical passes from half-spaces effectively.
And that’s exactly what he does at Spurs. He’s extremely valuable both in and out of possession.
While he executes his passes from both half-spaces with precision, a large part of his threat stems from through-balls from deep and lovely chips into zone 14 and the box. You want to make use of his full range of passing. Playing him as part of the front two isn't it. I know it was Arsenal, but that was probably his worst game in years.
Earlier this season, Frank couldn’t really utilise his running ability to move the ball into dangerous areas, though his movement caused problems for defenders and drew so many fouls in each game.
He’s not a huge goal threat, and he never was, as he took about 50% of his shots from outside the box in the Bundesliga. And it’s just been made worse by the lack of service he’s getting.
Who’s supposed to create for him? Archie Gray as the wing-back? Connor Gallagher (the biggest hope right now…)? Pape Sarr? Yves Bissouma? No. Nobody can progress the ball through the middle, especially in the final third. Spurs are the 4th-worst in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goals, and no one’s surprised by that.
I know Richarlison wasn’t match fit, Dominic Solanke had a “sore throat”, and that the bench was a truly depressing sight, but there’s still Mathys Tel?
Anyway, the current situation makes Simons an FPL no-go, even with better fixtures.
Next season, though, he might surprise many…
Bruno Fernandes as a #10: Focus on the important stuff
Most of you likely noticed that since Michael Carrick moved Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m) into the number ten role, the constant stream of his defensive contributions has dried up.
Who would have thought…
Pre-Gameweek 17: 10.60 defensive contributions p90 and 24% completion rate
Gameweeks 18 to 20: injured
Gameweeks 21 to 27: 6 contributions p90 and 14% completion rate
During that post-GW21 period, the Portuguese recover 36% fewer balls per game, which is tied not only to him playing more advanced but also to Manchester United’s defence under Carrick.
That’s something I discussed in my latest premium deep dive:
While one DEFCON two-pointer every four games is certainly a nice thing to have, and one every 6 or 7 games looks much worse, his attacking output surely skyrocketed to offset this, right? Let’s see.
The “new” Bruno:
1.95 non-penalty shots (most of it racked up against Spurs…)
0.19 xG and 0.09 post-shot xG (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout.com)
0.10 xG per shot
0.45 xG assisted
… while double-pivot Bruno was on:
2.57 non-penalty shots
0.20 xG and 0.15 post-shot xG
0.08 xG per shot
0.25 xG assisted
While we hoped to see more goals from those central areas close to the goal, that hasn’t happened so far. But if this means he will create so much more threat, I’m fine with that.
The volume of passes into the box and those leading directly to a shot is absurd. Frankly, he seems unstoppable in some phases of the game.
He shares set-piece duties with Bryan Mbeumo (£8.7m) and still creates so much threat from open play on top of that. Of his last 27 key passes, 21 were from open play, with a huge chunk going into the central areas of the box. Most of the time, it’s a cross, whether from the wide or the deep, that you didn’t know someone could place that well.
Bruno’s delivery from deep is three times as accurate as that of your average Premier League midfielder. Seriously.
Am I worried that it hasn’t exactly been a goal-fest? Well, there are still penalties and moments of individual brilliance to come.
Bruno will be fine.
Don’t panic (just yet)
This one always does my head in:
Make sure you’re happy with your rank by Gameweek 32, because the teams will be the same for everyone when Wildcards start flying, and ranks won’t change anymore.
Well, no.
If you ever see something like that again in this phase of the season (there’s still 29% of it to play), remain level-headed and don’t let yourself be manipulated into reckless FPL.
I’m well aware it depends on your rank/mini-league goals, but managers generally overestimate how different they need to be to gain rank:
The Twitter/X bubble is just a small part of the entire player pool. It doesn’t mean that if those managers have the same teams, everyone will have the same teams. Look at Dango Ouattara and Kevin Schade, who are 1.8% and 1.2% owned, respectively.
There will be template picks, but the teams definitely won’t be the same. If you need to, you can always tweak a few spots that can make a huge difference.
Most decisions presented as 50-50 aren’t really that close: one is often much better than the other. It just requires deeper analysis, and if you do your homework, you will identify a better option.
The ranks are still congested: if you’re ranked 1 million, you need to gain 84 points on the field to reach the top 100k. If you’re top 500k, you need 52 points.
About 30% of players across all rank tiers have already played their 2nd Wildcard. You likely have important chips left to play, and blanks & doubles are coming.
The number of dead teams will gradually increase.
Don’t fall into the trap of being too different just because you’re afraid you’ll be stuck and your rank won’t move.
Sometimes, you just need to zoom out.
Yesterday, I published another deep dive analysing the current FPL/PL landscape, including:
Why Harry Wilson is shooting less than before, and whether he can turn it around
Whether you should sell your Chelsea assets or Declan Rice
Reborn João Pedro. But for how long?
One interesting United signal
And more:
Last week’s deep dive is still very much relevant:
Thanks for reading, folks.
See you next time!