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Some pre-chip season musings

It’s only day 3 of the international break.

All international action has yet to begin, so the biggest news these days is that Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool at the end of this season.

When one era ends, another begins: a new Liverpool right winger will be coming.

Will they opt for Yankuba Minteh?

Maghnes Akliouche? Désiré Doué? Bradley Barcola? Michael Olise? Yan Diomande?

Well, it’s one for the future. Let’s focus on recent events and how to use them effectively in FPL.

Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester United (xG: 1.80 - 1.77)

Look, as someone without Chelsea coverage in my FPL team, I find it annoying when people tug at João Pedro’s shirt inside the penalty box.

But when it happens to a United player, I get excited because that means Bruno Fernandes (£10.3m) is taking the spot kick, which is exactly what happened on Friday night.

You be the judge whether there should be a second one…

Somewhat unusually, Bruno took 6 shots in total and only 3 key passes.

While this is lower than his recent standards, it was still the most on the pitch, tied with Diogo Dalot.

He also contributed to the second United goal and sparked yet another “controversy”, this time exclusively on FPL X, where everyone had an opinion on whether a fantasy assist should be awarded or not.

To understand the rules of the game, you need to know OPTA’s metrics definitions, since the game is fundamentally built around them. Game makers should take notes and improve transparency to prevent similar issues next season. 

It’s the least they can do, as caricature metrics like “big chances” (overly subjective) and pass accuracy (useless, and say little about a player’s ability) are a core part of the bonus point system.

And don’t even get me started on DEFCONs…

Nah, I haven’t got the energy for that.

Instead, let’s look at how this game became the last straw for Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) owners.

If you examine his data from the last five games — which is still only 400 minutes but still — you’d think you’re looking at a midfielder with elite production in the final third.

About 3 shots, 0.33 xG, and 0.33 xA per 90 minutes, along with many touches in the box and passes received in valuable areas close to the opponent’s goal, is something you don’t see much these days.

Unfortunately, out of those 13 shots, with 9 inside the box, he scored precisely zero goals, and that one assist certainly didn’t make up for that. Especially at this stage of the season. Also, Junior Kroupi took a penalty while Tavernier was on the pitch.

So, while Bruno will remain in most teams going forward, the same cannot be said for the Bournemouth player. Those upcoming fixtures don’t help either:

After a promising start, Rayan’s (£5.6m) performances declined sharply, which shouldn’t surprise you if you read my analysis of him that I published earlier this season. Arriving from a league of much lower quality and at just 19 years old, it was clear that he would need some time to adapt.

A player always needs time. Sometimes four months, sometimes six, sometimes an entire season, and that’s perfectly normal.

Brighton 2:1 Liverpool (xG: 2.17 - 1.03)

The better team won, plain and simple.

The shot map clearly tells the story: aside from Milos Kerkez’s goal, which came from Lewis Dunk's defensive error, they limited Liverpool to low-quality shots, many of which were blocked.

And although there were some well-placed shots, Bart Verbruggen handled them easily.

Purple: Bright. Red: Liverpool (source: theanalyst.com)

I’ve been highlighting Brighton’s defence for quite some time here on Data Dribble, wondering why I haven't seen it discussed much elsewhere.

Despite a rather mixed bag of fixtures, they have managed this since January (12 GWs now):

• 1.09 xG conceded p90 (3rd best)

• 7 non-penalty goals conceded (the least)

• 0.080 xG per shot allowed (the best)

• 2nd for xG conceded from fast transitions

• 4th for xG conceded from set-pieces

• Amazing Bart Verbruggen (best shot-stopping since GW20)

Those numbers tell a compelling story.