James Hill broke the game, Virgil fights the system, and one stat FPL managers should ignore

Everything important that happened in Double Gameweek 26

The Arsenal vs Wolves game takes place next Wednesday, making this likely the longest FPL gameweek ever.

Before the weekend’s FA Cup 4th-round games start and we get a clearer picture of what the future BGWs/DGWs could look like, let’s see what happened in Double Gameweek 26 so far.

There were some action-packed games, many outliers, and two sackings.

As always, we go far beyond the scoreline, revealing the most intriguing data while keeping it FPL-relevant.

Everton 1:2 Bournemouth (xG: 2.94 - 1.34)

A mid-table clash with little impact on the Premier League standings, but hugely important for FPL managers.

Despite several good defensive performances of late, Bournemouth remain prone to conceding good chances from central areas. This was, once again, aided by Djordje Petrovič (£4.5m), who fumbled a set piece straight to Thierno Barry (£5.7m), who then missed the sitter.

But there were more.

See the density of those purple circles:

source: theanalyst.com

There wasn’t a better DGW26 game for people who absolutely love counting DEFCONs. Some made it their personal mission on social media.

All that furious FotMob defcon refreshing was for nothing if you owned Everton players.

They came close multiple times, but couldn’t deliver: Iliman Ndiaye (£6.2m), James Garner (£5.2m), and Idrissa Gueye (£5.4m) were on 10 or 11, James Tarkowski (£5.7m) on 9, the same as Jarrad Brantwaithe. 

Bournemouth, however… three players met the threshold, including a new top dog, James Hill.

Trending (trending in our bubble, to be precise—he’s still just 2.8% owned) defender with a £4.0m price tag made 20 defensive contributions, with double the clearances Tarkowski had, and improved his recent data to:

• 13.1 defensive contributions per 90

• 89% success rate

… in the last 9 starts.

Plus, he added a nice inside-the-box assist and 2 bonus points, resulting in a 9-pointer. Exactly what Marcos Senesi (£4.8m) is supposed to do. But he ended up with 7 defensive contributions and no key pass.

One thing is clear.

James Hill is great in the air.

He engages in many aerial duels and has a high success rate, so you can expect him to continue getting those two-pointers regularly, unless it’s a really poor match-up with few crosses and long balls. And it’s easier to score a Triple Captain 80-pointer than a found one.

Other events included Ndiaye’s penalty, promising shots from KDH (£4.9m) and Tarkowski, and, most importantly, another goal from Rayan (£5.5m), who found Truffert’s cross on the back post as if he were playing his third Premier League season.

In fact, it was his third Premier League game.

It’s still early to say he has adapted, but at 19, coming from the Brazilian Serie A, and doing this on the pitch is impressive. It’s not only that he has already scored twice, but that he looks like a complete package: chance creation, dribbling and carrying the ball, drawing fouls, heading, and contributing in the build-up… it’s all there, so far.

Next week, I plan to publish detailed player/match-up analysis for the upcoming GW27 to 31 period, with value midfield picks forming a large part of it, including Rayan.

Because these are Bournemouth’s upcoming fixtures:

Chelsea 2:2 Leeds (xG: 3.13 - 1.44)

Fresh from his hat-trick against Wolves, which was otherwise a poor performance in a broader footballing sense, however strange it may sound, Cole Palmer (£10.6m) was awarded his 3rd penalty in a span of a few days.

It was also the third time the opposing defender pushed Pedro’s back with both hands, as if they were teammates in the Olympic short-track speed skating relay.

Three copy & paste penalties.

They should tell them not to watch so much TV.

This time, however, it was the Englishman’s best performance of the season. Well-timed assist to João Pedro’s (£7.7m) opener, another nice cutback towards the end of the game, and then this one:

It happens.

In the last two games, Liam Rosenior has made structural tweaks and is now transitioning between 2-3-5 and 2-2-6 attacking shapes, giving Palmer, Enzo, Gusto, and others plenty of freedom to rotate between positions, making them unpredictable.

Pedro recorded 7 shots inside the box, totalling 1.03 xG, while Enzo Fernández (£6.9m) amassed 0.69 xA, creating five chances. However, only one of them hauled.

Chelsea’s great run of fixtures will soon end, but there’s still the main event:

Defence remains fragile, and they keep conceding horrible chances from set pieces, which is something to keep in mind when playing FPL.

When it comes to fixtures after the Burnley game, while I don’t think games against Aston Villa and Newcastle are as big an issue as they look at first sight, the landscape plays against Chelsea's picks.

The Arsenal fixture in GW27 is a big issue — the EFL Cup game showed us why — and there are so many midfielders and defenders who have amazing runs in GWs 27 to 31.

As for Leeds, their upcoming run is poor both offensively and defensively. However, there’s a Sunderland fixture at Elland Road in GW29, so you don’t have to mass sell if they rotate well within your team.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m) missed only due to illness, so he should be back soon.

Tottenham 1:2 Newcastle (xG: 1.85 - 2.48)

I suspected he was an undercover agent after I saw this: