Welcome back, reader!
It’s that time of year when it’s wise to lock in, as they say.
Work hard in the gym, finally launch that business idea you’ve had for a while, or make the most of the festive FPL chaos. It’s a period when proper rank gains are up for grabs if you position yourself well.
And we’re close…
Before the last international break of 2026, we still have 2 pieces of Data Dribble content to dive into, along with a traditional deadline-day Q&A.
Expect a busy Friday.
Morgan Gibbs-White: Patience is running out…
I know for a fact that Nottingham Forest has a data analytics department.
Many years ago, I even worked briefly with the club on a small analytics project. They were still in the Championship back then, going through a not-so-successful spell, and I remember young James Garner being there.
Or Anthony Knockaert.
Yeah, a long time ago.
They were promoted shortly after that, and these days their recruitment is on a whole different level.
The table might not be pretty reading right now…
… but we know it can be (is…) highly misleading at this stage of the season. Some of those teams won’t be in the bottom six in May, that’s for sure, even though I’d prefer not to make any United predictions. I'd sooner predict the weather in Manchester.
Anyway, Forest analysts know that too. The pressure is surely mounting, but they are on the right path.
The coaching and player quality are there, and Forest’s 3rd place in the expected points table suggests they’re doing many things right.
1️⃣ 2nd for xG conceded: 1.03 per game, just behind Arsenal.
Let’s discuss that.
In total, they allowed 9.25 xGC but conceded 12 goals, more than ten other Premier League teams. It’s part luck, part not-that-good shot-stopping from Matz Sels, along with a tragic claiming of crosses.
Also, the distribution of shots doesn’t help – they concede the fewest attempts, but there’s often some error leading to a high-xG attempt, like the one two weeks ago:
On top of that, they’ve already completely collapsed defensively in two games this season. So, while non-contextualised xG doesn’t tell the whole story, if they avoid these lapses in concentration and Sels has better days, they’ll surely keep some clean sheets.
Note: Before that happens, captaining Erling Haaland probably shouldn’t feel wrong this week. It almost never should, but I've already seen some people question it.
If Forest improve on those two pain points, they have my attention. As you might know, they created a ton of chances from set pieces. Murillo (£5.5m) has already racked up 14 shots from them and is currently on 0.13 npxG/90, while also averaging 10.14 defensive contributions per 90 with a 67% hit rate.
One to watch.
2️⃣ Despite accumulating almost 4 set-piece xG, they and Liverpool are the only teams that haven’t scored from those attacks. And that’s just part of the story…
We already established a slight xGC underperformance, but the reason they’re 19th in the table is largely due to their inability to convert their chances:
They scored just 6 goals from chances worth 13.85 expected goals. No Premier League side scored fewer goals this season.
Enter Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.8m), one of the most frustrating FPL picks right now.
Look, owning him wasn’t a mistake.
Only four other teams created more dangerous shots than Forest. They are trigger-happy, and their shots are of solid quality on average. MGW spends 90 minutes on the pitch, takes free kicks and penalties, and is responsible for 26% of his team’s xA, one of the biggest shares in the league.
I liked last season’s box-crashing version of him much more. But let’s be honest, the current 2.13 shots, 0.22 npxG, and 0.29 xA per 90 minutes are great in the current landscape.
His finishing this season is abysmal, but that’s just a natural fluctuation.
Looking at all of his shots in the previous seven seasons, which is more than 250 attempts, he’s alright in that area.
He’ll start scoring again and rack up more assists, provided he continues to play those good minutes. With that volume of passes into the box, many of which lead directly to shots, it’s impossible not to.
Even though he’s only on direct free kicks, with Neco Williams and James McAtee handling the other set pieces, he plays an absurd volume of dangerous open-play passes – and executes them well.
The good thing is it’s not just about through balls from deep and those diagonals into cutback zones he loves (though they are an important part of it).
He can also distribute in advanced areas and in the box, which is what we FPL players want.
I wouldn’t rush to sell if there are other fires to put out.
City and Bournemouth are terrible match-ups, but he’s involved in everything, and then you have Chelsea, Hull, [Brighton], Sunderland, Everton, United, Newcastle, Fulham, and Hull after that.
If your team can handle keeping him through those poor fixtures, you will suddenly have a competitive advantage and a transfer or two to spend elsewhere from GW13 to GW20.
And a 90-minute player is exactly someone you need during Christmas.