What to expect from Hull in the Premier League?

One of the most unlikely promotions in recent times

It’s crazy to think this might or might not be the reason Hull were promoted to the Premier League:

Long story short, in case you missed it:

1️⃣ Southampton won the Championship play-off semi-final against Middlesbrough and were set to play Hull in the final at Wembley…
2️⃣ … only to be kicked out of the final by the EFL after admitting to spying on training sessions, including Boro’s own
3️⃣ Hull ended up facing a replacement opponent at the last minute
4️⃣ The Tigers sealed a highly improbable return to the Premier League by beating Middlesbrough 1-0 after Oli McBurnie’s 95th-minute strike

A season earlier, Hull avoided relegation to League One on goal difference.

Football.

How well did Hull perform in the Championship last season?

That’s another crazy part of the story.

You must be thinking: hmm, this line suggests that they probably did poorly in defence but offset that with a potent attack. Or they had a great defence and a great goalkeeper, so if they buy the right offensive players, they will be competitive.

Well…

In the expected points table – which combines their performance on both ends of the pitch and distributes points accordingly – they ranked 20th out of 24 teams.

Twentieth.

More than 30 xPoints behind the promoted teams Coventry and Ipswich.

The actual table looked like this, though:

source: flashscore.com

They were bang average in terms of the volume and quality of chances created, but ranked near the bottom in terms of conceding them. In fact, only Sheffield Wednesday, who ended up relegated, fared worse in xG conceded.

They allowed 76 non-penalty xG and 61 actual non-penalty goals, the 5th-most (tied with Wrexham). Only Watford, Leicester, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday conceded more goals.

Some might say it’s evidence that those expected metrics don’t work, but that’s not the right way to look at it – it’s simply evidence that extreme outliers exist (it’s just statistics, really), and if the same thing repeats in the Premier League, they will most likely be punished.

💡 You can ALWAYS translate xG into more football-friendly language, as it simply describes what HAPPENED on the pitch.

In Hull’s case, it’s a massive volume of shots allowed from central positions close to goal, with so many really big chances, especially when they defended in a low block and when defending set-pieces.

That’s just stating the facts.