Weekly Dribble: What's going on with Mohamed Salah in the league?

Some words on Mo, Jackie G, and Noni

Later this week, I will attend my best mate’s wedding, which means this one will be a bit shorter than usual.

Which is actually good news because I originally intended this free weekly edition of my newsletter to be a brief and easy-to-digest summary of things I find interesting. Unfortunately, I’m a f*cking compulsive writer.

I’ll learn to control it one day, I promise.

Let’s get to FPL/data stuff now.

Mohamed Salah: Should we be panicking already?

This season has so far been about defensive hauls and creators.

Think Arsenal’s fullbacks destroying Leeds or Jack Grealish.

Where are the goals?

Compared to the average of the previous three seasons during GWs 1 to 4, there are 23% fewer goals and 16% fewer expected goals this season, which has several reasons, but most of it is just early-season noise in the grand scheme of things. It's too soon to draw conclusions from that.

Even Mohamed Salah hasn’t been immune to this collective slump.

So far, he’s averaging 0.25 non-penalty shots and 0.02 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes (a low sample size alert)—that’s 4 not very dangerous shots in 4 matches, excluding that penalty:

If you dig a bit deeper, it’s quite obvious why that’s happening.

Salah’s movement has been unusually flat in the final third this season. Imagine owning an incredible beast of a car in your garage, but overnight, someone swaps your engine, leaving you wondering why it suddenly feels totally different. He posts noticeably below-average results in metrics that measure how his runs and dribbling help his team in creating dangerous chances.

The volume of his carries into the box is considerably lower than his long-term average, and the ones he made were of lower quality. His dribbling volume is also meagre compared to his usual standards. More than 70% of other midfielders are fouled more often than he is, which is telling.

Data also shows that the volume, quality, and variety of passes in the final third are not what they used to be.

However, this probably won’t last forever.

The fixtures were undeniably challenging for a team that needed to settle after the summer overhaul of their front-line.

Also, it was always pretty evident that the chance he would achieve another record-breaking season was minimal, and some regression is inevitable this season.

We just don’t know the extent of it. So far, it’s not a good start, that’s for sure. However, it still may be largely circumstantial.

We didn’t expect this kind of start from someone who can perform in nearly any fixture — for instance, he averaged 2.30 shots, 0.30 xG, and 0.36 xA against clubs from the top 7 last season.

Still, you could see yesterday that he hadn't forgotten how to create moments of individual brilliance against strong defences in the Champions League:

The next four games will show a lot.

Jack Grealish: Will the total domination continue?

I know I discussed Jackie in last week’s preview thread on X, but this newsletter is about data, and when I see an outlier like this, I’m smashing buttons on my keyboard like a berserk.

The new Premier League Player of the Month tops the expected assists chart with 1.76 in total, averaging 0.56 per game in 313 minutes played.

He probably won’t maintain these numbers if he plays enough minutes this season.

But it doesn’t matter.

Anything above 0.30 xA/90 is elite performance, and so far, he dominates and is capable of delivering it, as his historical performances show. Currently, he ranks top in goal probability added (gpa) passing models, which you’d expect.

Data indicates that his execution of crosses from the wide areas and through-balls from the left half-space is flawless. Plus, he’s often inside the box and in cutback zones. In fact, 78% of his key passes originate from inside the box.

What is funny is that he also dominates the GPA model, which evaluates how his runs and dribbles increase the team’s chance of scoring a goal (and not conceding one).

Not only does he have a great vision for final passes, but he also leads in box entries with runs alongside Noni Madueke.

Oh, and did I mention he’s the most fouled player and wins an absurd amount of possessions?

Exciting stuff.

Noni Madueke’s rampage: But not what you expect

Speaking of Madueke…

When Bukayo Saka got injured, his fellow countryman was unleashed to a new role, ready to live up to his reputation as a winger who causes chaos in the box, averaging 3.51 shots, 0.40 xG, and 8.80 touches in the box during the previous campaign.

But this is the 25/26 season, folks. Only a few chosen ones score goals.

Madueke has played 281 minutes so far, averaging 1 shot per game. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t dangerous. He maintains 0.28 xA per 90 — again, low sample size alert — and shone creatively in that Forest game.

He hasn’t recorded a single shot, but he compensated for this by producing 5 key passes, with a total of 0.71 xA.

Also, he’s a player with the most entries into the box, with about 9 per game. Not surprisingly, he mostly achieves this through carrying. His 4 carries into the box per game are also the highest in the Premier League so far.

He’s fun to watch. Direct. Fast. Great dribbler. Great final pass.

Hopefully, goals will start flooding in across the board.

Meanwhile, look at Erling Haaland’s shot map:

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