Weekly Dribble: Poor rank in FPL? It’s not your fault — it’s the players
Some words on lack of goals, and Alexander Isak
Where are the goals?
Yesterday, I published a detailed analysis of the current offensive landscape in the Premier League, and I must admit I had to work very hard to make it somewhat engaging and avoid simply recycling obvious information.
It’s a super slow start, with fewer goals, fewer expected goals, fewer shots, and about everything else that usually happens in the final third of the pitch.
Even Sunderland seem to have a great defence. They have, if we completely ignore the fact that they faced West Ham, Burnley, Brentford, and Aston Villa, which… many FPL managers apparently do.
Anyway, Gameweek 5 had the lowest goal-to-match projection from the markets since April 2023, and sure enough, we didn’t see many wide-open battles.
The main event was the Bournemouth versus Newcastle match. It wasn’t quite the kind of game where you'd expect a 3-3 draw, but I struggle to find the right words to describe it:
There were just 5 shots within the box, with only 2 of them not blocked. The other ten shots came from outside the box, most of them of sheer desperation.
Also, Antoine Semenyo reached the DEFCON threshold.
In Gameweek 5, players generated 19.1 non-penalty xG.
Luckily, they scored 27 actual goals, thanks to some spectacular long-range attempts, weird goalkeeper saves and set pieces.
Think Anton Stach, Matty Cash, or… DCL.
In GWs 1 to 4, there was an average of 22 non-penalty xG (and 21 goals on avg.).
In comparison, last season, there was an average of 27 non-penalty xG per Gameweek:
GWs 1-10: 28.9 xG (and 26 goals)
GWs 11-20: 28.4 xG (28 goals)
GWs 21-38: 26.2 xG (26 goals)
🥰 Do you see how the numbers of xG and goals even out over a larger sample size? Beautiful.
If you started badly, don’t be too hard on yourself. It’s quite possible you haven’t done anything wrong so far, or only made a small mistake or two. Of course, you need to be honest with yourself, but it’s definitely possible to do poorly even if there’s no big fuck-up from your side. No one could have expected this season to be such a massive outlier. The quality of chances declined by 22%.
And it’s not just the last campaign—when we consider the average of the previous three seasons, the trend indicates that this one is a complete anomaly so far. I mentioned this in the last newsletter, but I thought it was worth discussing further. I’m very interested in seeing how the figures develop in the future.
The year-on-year decline in expected goals and goals scored is likely due to how the fixtures were scheduled (lack of standout fixture runs), the “big” teams having to adjust after a busy summer transfer window, and key players not being fully present. Mohamed Salah isn’t performing well. Alexander Isak isn’t playing. Cole Palmer played, but with an injury. Bukayo Saka was injured. And so on.
It makes FPL a bit less fun, unless you enjoy counting defensive contributions, and claiming how you will play 5-at-the-back each week after wildcarding (spoiler alert: you won’t).
The goals will come, eventually.
Alexander Isak: Do you remember how good he was?
Fortunately, Hugo Ekitiké is kind to us. (apologies to all owners)
He probably felt his two Premier League goals were not enough and tried to get Alexander Isak back on the pitch as soon as possible.
After all, the Swede scored 23 goals last season, which was one more than Erling Haaland did.
No, but seriously, each of us probably did something silly as a 23-year-old. He probably won’t repeat this ever again.
Regarding Isak and Haaland, both posted very similar underlying numbers last season, showing Isak’s performances were truly elite, and he can alter the entire dynamics of Liverpool’s team.
He’s a player with excellent movement in the box. He takes a large number of shots from central areas and inside the 6-yard box, and he can finish his chances well. But it’s not just that.
Isak has an exceptional passing range for a number 9—able to deliver through balls from deep positions, execute cutbacks, chip balls into the zone 14, and make passes inside/into the box following his runs.
He does everything, and he does it in huge volumes.
Picture an elite creative or ball-carrying winger combined with a fantastic centre-forward.
A monster.
Unfortunately, it appears that even Ekitiké’s one-game suspension, which makes him ineligible for the Gameweek 6 game against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, doesn’t guarantee Isak will start. And even if he does, it will likely be only for a brief stint, as he is probably far from fully match fit.
So, open a planning tool and explore possible routes involving him, because in Gameweek 8, we might want to take action. Liverpool vs Manchester United, Anfield Road… that sounds like a game destined for him to shine.