Weekly Dribble: Bournemouth might have done it again + Big Ange is back!
A weekly round-up of things I find interesting, plus some actionable advice
I know.
You want to find out who the best Ismaïla Sarr replacements are and what to do with your Nottingham Forest defenders. I’ll save one of these topics for the weekly X preview and discuss the other shortly.
However, as always, I want to talk about things that caught my eye, and they are a bit more niche.
So, let’s begin with that.
Alejandro “Álex” Jiménez: It’s not the last time you hear that name
Recently, Bournemouth managed to pull off quite a few impressive transfer stunts.
Their signing of teenage Juventus defender Dean Huijsen on a six-year deal for an initial £12.8 million, and selling him to Real Madrid a year later for €59.5 million, is the most fascinating one.
This summer, the Cherries agreed on a loan deal with an option to buy for AC Milan’s 20-year-old full-back Álex Jiménez, another Spanish youth international.
The deal is set to become permanent, costing £16.5m, if he makes 18 Premier League starts this season.
Firstly, I experience a sense of déjà vu.
Secondly, do I think they will trigger the option? Yes, I believe it is very likely.
We have only a sample size of about 1,400 minutes played in one of the top 5 leagues, but I really like what I see from a player who was just 19 years old at that time.
What’s evident is that he has great raw pace and acceleration, and he makes good use of it. In the 24/25 season, he made 3.7 progressive runs per 90 minutes, which ranks him in the 95th percentile for his position.
Jimenez is also a high-volume dribbler (about 3.50 take-ons per game), with a good success rate, meaning he can control the ball well even at full pace. He ranks highly in the goal probability added model, which assesses how his carries impact the team’s likelihood of scoring and conceding. In other words, his runs with the ball made AC Milan pretty dangerous.
He’s also a very technical player who performs well in advanced passing models. Although his crossing, especially from wide areas (he’s better at doing it from deeper positions), is still quite raw and inconsistent, he can distribute ground passes near or inside the box because of his running and dribbling abilities.
When it comes to defending, he reads the game well and stands out with a high number of interceptions and blocked passes. Overall, he recovers a significant number of possessions. Oh, and did I mention he can play on both the left and right sides?
There are several other positives—while he’s still developing physically, he is a relentless and agile fullback with a good work ethic and reportedly a great character, which provides a strong foundation to work with Andoni Iraola.
And Andoni Iraola always knows what he’s doing.
I’d say that both Adam Smith and Julian Araujo might struggle to withstand the pressure, and Jimenez could overtake them in the pecking order quite quickly.
Three weeks, a month, three months?
I don’t know.
But I’d keep a very close eye on this new £4.5m FPL defender.
Ange Postecoglou returns to the Premier League: Are Forest’s assets doomed?
Tuesday’s news that Nottingham Forest appointed Ange Postecoglou as their new head coach, replacing sacked Nuno Espírito Santo, caused widespread panic to set in, although there’s not much reason for it (yet).
Forest will face Arsenal in Gameweek 4, so it’s unlikely this will affect your plans for that week. Afterwards, there’s Burnley away and Sunderland at home—again, you will field your Forest assets regardless.
It’s very rare for a new coach to make drastic changes to the defensive personnel unless it is truly necessary, and I don’t believe it will happen unless Ola Aina’s injury turns out to be serious enough to keep him out for a significant period.
In that event, Oleksandr Zinchenko—who is ineligible to play against his parent club—would probably come into contention later. Cuiabano was loaned out, and Nicolo Savona is currently injured.
Postecoglou will introduce his more adventurous philosophy, which goes without saying. The interesting thing is that Nuno was likely urged to be a lot braver. A LOT braver.
The numbers back up this hypothesis.
In the three games against Brentford, Crystal Palace, and West Ham:
1️⃣ Nuno played the 4th-highest defensive line in the league, similar to Bournemouth. Only Brighton and Arsenal sit higher.
2️⃣ The team had the 9th most intense pressing based on the PPDA metric (the number of uninterrupted passes they allowed their opponent to make inside the attacking half of the pitch before attempting a defensive action).
3️⃣ Also, they had the 7th highest possession percentage in those games.
Last season, they had the 4th least intense press, the lowest defensive line in the Premier League, and the lowest possession percentage, only about 39%. Yeah…
We won’t see these figures again this season with Ange in charge.
After the Sunderland game, the fixtures are getting significantly tougher from a defensive perspective, meaning FPL managers will offload Forest’s defensive assets anyway.
If you remain concerned that your Forest defenders are in a far worse position (despite knowing how adventurous Nuno was this season), and see Spurs’ past defensive performances as a clear sign that Postecoglou’s team can’t defend, remember to consider the full context. They weren’t poor defensively before the shit hit the fan with their defensive injuries. I discussed this in last week’s newsletter.
I would be much more uneasy as Chris Wood’s owner.
Not only will he face Arsenal next, but his expected playing time may also decrease, as he is not well-suited to Ange’s intense style of play. Additionally, the Australian can now utilise Igor Jesus and Arnaut Kalimuendo.
Defenders? Not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things.
Top transfers in and out this week: Grealish and Semenyo up top
One of the most entertaining features of the Fantasy Premier League app is the two tables displaying the most transferred players in both directions.
Look at this:
The right one clearly shows that a) FPL managers are very impatient individuals, and b) you should probably wait until the end of the week to make your transfers to gather as much information as possible. I cannot emphasise this enough. Information is crucial in this game, and transfers are precious.
The table of “the top transfers in this week” is pretty diverse this time:
João Pedro: The latest reports suggest that Liam Delap will be out for about 8 weeks due to injury. Although some of the games in the upcoming 5 GWs might be tricky, and the real fun will start GW9+, there’s nothing wrong with buying him now, given the current landscape full of chaos, uncertainty, and a lack of convincing FWD options.
Alexander Isak: Too soon. The “I see Burnley, I click buy” strategy should usually work quite well this season, but GW4 will probably come a bit too early for him, as he has played very little football this season. Half a million transfers in is wild.
Enzo Fernandes: You’re essentially paying £6.6m for some assist potential in a rather tricky set of fixtures. On the other hand, the current situation with budget midfielders is also quite uninspiring—there aren’t many options to genuinely get excited about. It’s just this strange limbo at the moment.
Antoine Semenyo: If you can find that £7.4 million somewhere, he’s probably the best budget-friendly midfielder in the game. I can’t count how many times I’ve mentioned him in my articles across the newsletter and socials since pre-season. A great mix of goal threat and final third creativity, an attacking-minded team, decent fixtures, and a fine value for money…
Jack Grealish: I love Jack Grealish (see the article below), and I’m so happy for him that he started well, simply because I still rate him highly as a player. He’s in a similar bracket to Enzo regarding lacking a proper goal threat.
But unlike Enzo, he’s one of the most creative players in the league (he truly is), and he will be more consistent when it comes to his final product, even though he most likely won’t score double-digit goals in the season. He never has, not even at Aston Villa. But he’s a creative genius.
The 7-day free trial is starting again from today 🆓
In other news, you can now enjoy a 7-day free trial option on a new Data Dribble and get a taste of the full experience of my premium content.
The truth is, I want you all to see what’s behind the paywall at least once during the season.
Simply because I believe it’s the best newsletter in the fantasy space by far, and it’s worth the price of a Big Tasty at McDonald’s (if you’re British).
But you’ll be the judge if you decide to.
In my latest deep dive, I cover 30 new Premier League players who arrived around deadline day and their impact on FPL. It’s a 3,700-word piece designed to keep you one step ahead. That’s pretty much my philosophy — I aim to spot new trends before everyone else.
I recommend checking at least the free preview:
And that’s all for today!