Transfer dribble #7: Spurs and Bournemouth are refusing to give up

Spurs, Bournemouth, and Brentford all need some fixing.

The pre-season format of this will be as free-flowing as peak Kevin De Bruyne, covering Premier League transfers, all sorts of FPL stuff, or weird things people say about football data.

Once we enter the regular season, it will be more about actionable fantasy advice, which will help you better understand the data and make sounder managerial decisions. So, bear with me.

Panic at the Hotspur Way

There will be times when I use this newsletter as a safe space to vent my frustration as a Spurs supporter.

Because, for now, the situation looks grim.

I’ve already discussed this on my Twitter, but James Maddison’s ACL injury is something that truly hurts on a personal level if you have at least some empathy.

He’s precisely the type of player Thomas Frank loves to work with and was primed to become a key part of the Spurs, both because of his performances and his leadership skills, which would come in handy after Heung-Min Son’s farewell. An exciting Champions League campaign ahead, combined with this being a World Cup year for England, makes it all even more cruel.

Instead, he will miss most of the season. He will be 29 years old after it ends, and trying to get back into shape in a much less favourable situation will be difficult. Plus, it’s not only devastating news for him but also the Spurs as a team, as they now lack proper creativity in the final third of the pitch.

With Maddison and Kulusevski out, Pape Matar Sarr deputises in the number ten role, which is only a short-term solution. They need an advanced playmaker, and they must act quickly.

It should be a marquee signing, and two of the latest rumours are just that.

Enter Savinho and Eberechi Eze.

Both have different consequences for us, FPL managers.

With Savinho, you get a player capable of playing on both wings. 

During his La Liga spell at Girona, he accumulated 3,250 minutes, spending the majority of his time on the left (about 2.5k minutes). At City, he mostly played on the right, more than two-thirds of his playing time.

When it comes to his results in advanced goal probability added models assessing his passing, he was the cream of the crop in both competitions. At Girona, his creative duties mainly involved crosses from the wide areas, which are a form of art in his execution.

But that’s not all—he can also deliver crosses from deeper positions or get into cutback zones (think Grealish), and he utilised the same types of passes at Manchester City.

On top of that, he is a fantastic runner who constantly pushes the ball into the final third with his running and high-volume dribbling skills. Joy to watch.

In Spain, he was primarily a creative outlet, averaging only 1.25 shots and 0.16 expected goals, while adding 0.17 expected assists and 0.28 actual assists per 90 minutes.

After he arrived in England, some couldn’t comprehend his lack of goals. Besides them misinterpreting his skill set, his bad luck didn’t help.

His 0.28 xA and 0.37 assists p90 are ABSURD numbers for a 21-year-old Brazilian in his debut Premier League season. He also added 2.52 shots and 0.21 xG per 90 minutes, which is quite good.

Unfortunately, he only scored 1 goal from the total 4.70 xG and 4.70 post-shot xG. Very unlucky. But fine by me—I would welcome him with open arms.

Him on the wing would mean Mohammed Kudus and Brennan Johnson sharing minutes between them. As I still have doubts about Kudus’ final product (until he proves me wrong), most of the goal-scoring would need to fall on Solanke’s shoulders.

But I can imagine Kudus tiring the defence with his constant running, duelling, and dribbling, and then Brennan coming off the bench to finish Savio’s crosses on the far post.

Sweet.

What about Eberechi Eze?

Aside from how satisfying it would be to poach from Arsenal, who are heavily linked to him all summer, he would bring something different.

Less raw creative talent, but a player in his prime years who can offer a more complex threat as a pure goal-scoring and assisting number ten. He can dictate attacks, score goals, run, dribble, and perform all these at a high level. Top quality. Having this type of creator opens up countless possibilities in the final third.

Creatively, with Eze, it’s not about just crosses, but about his box-crashing and then distributing into better positions or taking a shot. Add diagonals and through-balls from both half-spaces and immaculate distribution from zone 14.

Eze is reportedly keen on the move, but I will believe it when I see it.

It would probably be quite a costly transfer fee for a 27-year-old player, but hey, the Spurs really need a solution.

Pay that hefty fee, learn from it for the future, and begin working on the next two transfer windows immediately.

Farewell, Illia. Welcome, Bafodé

Bournemouth confirmed that Illia Zabarnyi had completed a permanent transfer to Paris Saint-Germain, and they are reportedly on the verge of signing a new centre-back, 24-year-old Frenchman Bafodé Diakité from Lille. Given their depleted back-line, it’s a deal you would expect.

He’s a player who reminds me of Dean Huijsen in some of his skills, a bit. Though he’s much shorter than the Spaniard (only 1.84m), he’s strong in the air, can carry the ball forward Micky van de Ven style, and is quite a good distributor of the ball.

Furthermore, he’s a genuine threat from set pieces.

Last season, he registered 16 shots with a total of 2.8 xG and 3.4 post-shot xG. He scored 4 goals from these, making a dangerous attempt every other game.

We need to see how this develops with all the impressive attacking talent and tough defenders in the world's best football league, but it’s a promising sign for his future potential involvement in our fantasy teams.

From an FPL perspective, his arrival makes no difference at this moment. We need to see them settle first before choosing their defence, while Evanilson and Semenyo remain sneaky good picks as soon as in GW1.

Are Brentford cooking something?

Because the final week before the Gameweek 1 deadline is very hectic in terms of content creation, let’s keep it brief here.

Brentford need to strengthen their attack and are reportedly in negotiations with 23-year-old winger/striker Dango Ouattara (£6.0m). I understand that move from the Bees’ perspective, but it makes much less sense from Bournemouth’s. Anyway, it would give us an exciting budget FPL midfielder who can score some goals.

Another target is reportedly Arnaud Kalimuendo from Rennes.

It doesn’t seem like a transfer Brentford would make, as his performances in most of the key data models are quite average. He scored 17 goals last season, but 6 of these were from penalties. On the other hand, the shot map doesn’t look too bad, and if he stops taking some weird long-range shots, it will look even better.

If it’s not a hoax and the recruitment team in Brentford believes it might work, they see the potential in him, and we should pay attention.

However, as an FPL pick in a short-term window, it's a definite no if that transfer happens.

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That’s a wrap for today!

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Farewell, pre-season — it was great fun.