Welcome back, reader!
We’ve just witnessed the first gameweek after the unprecedented 3-week international break.
Because it felt like a season’s restart, I think it’s a good opportunity to review all the Gameweek 6 games, see what’s changed (if anything), and what to watch for now.
The Data Dribble Wildcard 6 guide did most of the heavy lifting last week, but as I’m on Wildcard 7 (which I’ll share later this week in another detailed article), it’s a good exercise to get into the zone.
Let’s do it.
Arsenal 2:1 Leeds (xG: 2.33 vs 0.62)
Arsenal delivered another solid defensive performance.
They limited central attempts thanks to a compact double pivot of Declan Rice and Miles Lewis-Skelly, with Ezri Konsa fit enough to play and not having to adjust to a new centre-back pairing. I recently criticised Rice’s defensive performances, but he played well this time.
However, Leeds still launched several promising attacks down both channels, resulting in a few good shots, including one that led to James Justin’s (£4.5m) opener and the clean-sheet wipeout.
Fortunately for many FPL managers, they also have a defender who can get into scoring positions like this:
Once again, Riccardo Calafiori (£5.9m) was the most advanced player in the back four, based on the average height of his touches with the ball.
He turned that into 2 shots and 2 passes that led directly to a shot against a side ranked in the top half of Premier League defences.
After 6 gameweeks, the Italian fullback averages 1.62 shots, 0.22 non-penalty xG (top 10% on his position), and 0.12 xA per 90 minutes, so there’s no reason not to own him. Sure, some odd benching will likely happen at some point in the season, but that’s no excuse to let that upside slip through your fingers.
Especially now that Piero Hincapié picked up an ankle injury.
Those who captained Bukayo Saka (£9.6m) were close to securing solid points, but it wasn’t meant to be:
I’m trying hard to find other Arsenal topics to discuss beyond the obvious, as this game didn’t show anything new I hadn’t covered in last week’s wildcard guide.
Having both Ezri Konsa and Kai Havertz ready to play was huge for Arsenal. And for Saka’s penalty share, since Arteta doesn’t need to start Viktor Gyökeres…
We’re still picking from Raya, Calafiori, Gabriel, and Saka, unless you’re fine with some Konsa headaches once William Saliba returns.
Which will most likely happen sometime in November, according to multiple sources.
It’s still the same story with Leeds, too.
Tarik Muharemovič (£5.0m) hit yet another DEFCON threshold and still ranks among the best defenders to choose from this season. Yes, fixtures are a mixed bag in the short term, but with so many good options elsewhere, it’s easy to find rotations that let you own him and start him in good games.
Because of those tricky fixtures, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) will likely have a somewhat dull period. Closer to December, his performances will likely pick up, and ownership will rise.
Anton Stach (£6.0m) takes all the set pieces (literally) and collects all the DEFCONs, so he’s a solid set-and-forget pick, despite his goal threat being just random worldies.
However, it takes discipline not to sell him when he blanks a few times or when a new juicy budget MID appears. Rotating them is one of the most enjoyable things in FPL, so my personal approach is to have fun with DEFCON DEFs and be creative with budget MIDs.
Aston Villa 2:2 Brentford (xG: 2.28 - 1.06)
This game awakened my inner nerd.
In the days leading up to it, I wondered who would post the better defensive performance.
Two reasons for that:
Brentford entered Gameweek 6 as the 4th-best defence by xG conceded, and with the 4th-best xG per shot conceded, which is what you expect from them every season.
They are super analytical and live by one ethos – make each chance as big as possible, and don’t concede shots close to goal. It’s that simple.
Aston Villa can now field a pretty interesting lineup, with João Gomes and Boubacar Kamara in the middle of the pack, and Manzambi, Buendía, McGinn, and Jackson in front of them. It sounds exactly like something Unai Emery could make work.
In the end, Aston Villa were the more defensively solid side, though it didn’t have an immediate FPL impact, as Kristoffer Ajer (£4.5m) scored and Brentford’s defence isn’t highly owned anyway.
However, it matters for Villa.
I see this as a 2-3 GW period to keep a close eye on them as their favourable run of fixtures approaches. So, their ability to control a difficult game like this is encouraging if you’re considering any of their attacking picks.
Mainly Johan Manzambi (£5.9m) and Nicolas Jackson (£6.6m), both of whom returned on Saturday.
Manzambi racking up 7 shots, 0.54 expected goals, and 0.16 xA looks great at first glance, but that shots-to-xG ratio suggests most were low-quality attempts from outside the box, blocked, or from wide angles.
At the same time, I’m not saying he was poor.
High shot volume is essential to generating the final product, and he played a great game overall:
Constantly on the move
Receiving in good areas
His passing in the build-up and in the final third was extremely dangerous and progressive
… and he bombed the box with open-play passes
Nicolas Jackson scored, but it was his only big chance.
I wouldn’t rush to get them just yet – observing more games is a sensible approach.
Jackson is easier to assess than Manzambi because we kinda know the man: he’s already played in the Premier League, has a much bigger sample in the top 5 leagues, and has played more games for Villa this season. He’s matured and looks good enough for a favourable run of fixtures.
Also, Emi Buendía (£5.9m) gives the impression of a much better FPL pick than he really is. I don’t think his final product is good enough given the pool of viable midfielders right now.
Big news is Kevin Schade’s (£6.2m) injury. The 16%-owned German winger picked up a shoulder problem, and while we still don’t know the extent, it could rule him out for several gameweeks. So, it’s better to be prepared.
Some injuries create a new opportunity. In this case, it would mean reintroducing Dango Ouattara. However, he performed surprisingly poorly before losing his place in the starting eleven to Jaidon Anthony, so he’s unfortunately not an option.
Chelsea 5:1 Bournemouth (xG: 1.10 - 1.38)
Well, this was both unexpected and… exactly as predicted.
Let me explain that cryptic sentence.