Step-by-step guide to building the Wildcard 32 draft
The most fun part of the season is here
Look, it’s always nice when Sydney Sweeney posts a new Instagram story, but for us, the most important picture this week is the one below.
And it’s not even close:
❗ It’s a list of 6 teams that will double in Gameweek 33 and, at the same time, will blank in Gameweek 34.
The results of last weekend’s FA Cup quarter-finals, which caused these postponements, were the signal to put our chip strategies into action. One of the most popular is the WC32, BB33, FH34 (TC36), which means you’re reading one of my favourite pieces of content – building the wildcard draft from scratch.
I’ll discuss the process of choosing the right path for your team later this week in the upcoming edition of the Thought Process series.
Generally, it involves assessing your team’s status in GW32 and BGW34, weighing the pros and cons of BB33 versus FH33, and considering your free transfers with the full 7-GW outlook in mind. Most of the time, it’s either GW32 or GW35 wildcard (WC33 can also work).
But yeah, that’s for another day. This time, it will be a purely analytical look at players, teams, match-ups, and fantasy concepts you should utilise if you decide that Wildcard 32 is the right approach for you.
Let’s do this.
💡 Advice: If you’re feeling confused about chip strategies, avoid the mistake of trying to read as much content as possible.
Instead, especially if your time is limited this week, open your favourite planning tool and experiment with different routes tailored to your team.
Understanding your team is far more valuable than doomscrolling on FPL X.
Also, this season is unique because those routes are quite close in EV. Yes, they may have vastly different results over just 7 GWs, but that’s beyond your control.
Manchester City: They simply need to be there
Quick note: Even if you’ve decided on the GW32 wildcard, it might be slightly different for you if you have a large bank of saved free transfers, or if you diverge from a template chip strategy mentioned above. This WC draft assumes entering GW32 with 1 FT and a plan to BB33 and FH34.
It’s not a groundbreaking thought, but it must be said before moving on to more interesting stuff – Manchester City’s triple-up is essential.
They will have a DGW33 with Arsenal (H), Burnley (A)
They are predicted to double in GW36, facing BRE and CRY/bou.
For now, they still have a lot to play for
The quality of their players
Unfortunately, there’s very little space to get creative, as their trio pick itself.
You might feel the urge to be different, but as the great Marsellus Wallace says, “That’s pride fucking with you. Fuck pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps.”
The arguments for each of them are simply too strong.
And yes, you won’t jump ranks that much if they go big, but at the same time, you won’t lose ground unnecessarily. You need to have shields just as much as swords. And there will be swords later in this article.
Also, depending on your rank, about 32 - 40% of people have already played their wildcard, and 28 - 38% don’t have their Free Hit anymore.
There’s still room to improve your rank by playing smart FPL.
Firstly, this man:
Erling Haaland (£14.4m) has been averaging only 4.59 FPL points per game since January, which is a combination of not only a fair share of bad luck, but also visibly worse performances across almost all key metrics.
At the same time, his performances still remain well above average. We simply view him through different lenses, and if he had scored a few more goals during that period, the perception would be much more positive.
After his hat-trick against Liverpool, all doubts were put to rest. Also, with a lack of other high-performing premiums, combined with those upcoming doubles, there’s no reason to snub him from the WC team.
No data needed here.
Since Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m) made his first appearance for Manchester City in Gameweek 22, he has become the second most utilised player in their squad, only behind Rodri, who played ten more minutes. You rarely get such a luxury with players managed by Pep.
Plus, you don’t often see a winger with such high goal-scoring potential – these are rare gems in this year’s Premier League.
In City, he posts:
2.20 shots per 90
0.33 non-penalty xG per 90
0.59 post-shot xG per 90 (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout)
0.15 xG per shot
11% of his shots are blocked (elite separation and execution, the best in the league)
strong numbers in metrics that measure how dangerous the positions he receives the ball in are
He’s clearly instructed to take fewer shots from outside the box, with only 4 of his 18 open play attempts being from long range. Most of his attempts are central, demonstrating not only good movement in the box but also good finishing (his long-term trait) and confidence.
He’s always had this in him – now you can see how effective he is when playing closer to the goal.
Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) sees a decent amount of minutes on the pitch, while recording 2.20 shots and 0.27 non-penalty xG with 0.36 post-shot xG per 90 minutes this calendar year.
He can haul at any moment, and if you’re on a wildcard, I don’t see a reason not to include him.
At the time of writing, he’s owned by 9.4% of FPL managers, so let’s see how much he will be owned by in a few days.
Also, it’s nice to have at least one non-DEFCON defender to feel something again.
If you’re going very, very hard for secure minutes, you might consider Marc Guéhi (£5.1m), who’s City’s most frequent recipient of corners, but his DEFCON completion rate is just 25%.
Rayan Aït-Nouri (£5.7m) looks quite creative and would be a good pick last season, but he lacks DEFCONs and goal threat – so he isn’t this season.
One caveat is that if City lose against Arsenal next week, the rotation could kick in, and you might want to offload some of their players later on. But it is what it is.
City’s fixture includes a GW33 game against Chelsea, which isn’t too bad in isolation, as they aren’t the most solid defence in the league.
However, it’s a bit frustrating, as you’ll probably also need to involve some Blues players in your draft…
Chelsea: Is the double-up worth it?
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