Semenyo and Pedro with predator instincts, Liverpool adapt, and other GW29 stories

The key stories of GW29 under scrutiny

It’s a Friday after the midweek, and you know what that means.

Yes, your favourite midweek review.

Gameweek 29 was full of interesting stories, data, outliers, and another batch of set-piece goals, so let’s dive straight into it.

Bournemouth 0:0 Brentford (xG: 1.92 - 0.40)

Well, that was an unexpected scoreline.

Watching the game, you might get the impression that it’s already Gameweek 37, and Brentford are sitting in the middle of the table, gassed out from playing about 198 matches that professional footballers must endure nowadays.

The reality is that they are 4 points behind the Europa League places and ranked 7th in the expected points table.

Bournemouth’s defensive numbers are excellent at the Vitality Stadium, but much of it stems from the quality of opponents they’ve faced there and some circumstantial factors too complex to explain in a few paragraphs.

Yet, the Bees created just 5 shots, with only 3 from inside the box, despite no one important, apart from Vitaly Janelt, missing that game:

Bournemouth vs Brentford shot map (source: theanalyst.com)

Unexpected stuff from the attack that accumulated the second-highest volume of dangerous chances in the last ten gameweeks, and can usually punish teams vulnerable to counters. Yeah, this is how I’d describe Brentford, if they were a person and had a photo in a high school yearbook.

Anyway, managers who own Marcos Senesi (£4.9m) and/or James Hill (£4.2m) (and let’s not forget the lately magnificent Djordje Petrovič) were a pleasant surprise. Make it double if they celebrated bench jam for Harry Wilson and Joachim Andersen.

Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) is there for some delayed gratification.

I’m glass half full type of person, and if you’re an owner, I advise you to look at things positively: 5 shots & 1.4 xG one-man show from 1.6% owned differential is frustrating stuff, but when he can do this against Brentford, imagine the havoc against Burnley.

EO will be higher, but still juicy enough.

Tavernier’s shots (source: theanalyst.com)

With Manchester United, who are a defensive powerhouse that have Senne Lammens (£5.0m) AND concede very few big chances for months now, in Gameweek 30, and a tough run after that, he’s there only for:

• The Wildcard 32 dead-enders with a lot of transfers in hand… and a plan

• Free Hitters in GW34 (all of us?), as they face Leeds at home that week

But he’s poised to make some managers happy.

Brentford now have some amends to make, though nothing really changes in terms of FPL, as Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Fulham, or West Ham are still fixtures to gain a fair share of value.

❗ Another major topic this week is the upcoming FA Cup weekend, especially for those of you who own Brentford players and are among the roughly 30-35% of managers who have already used their second wildcard. But really, it affects all of us.

Brentford are still in the competition, which means their BGW34 fixture against Manchester United could still become blank, potentially resulting in both teams having a double gameweek in DGW33. For it to happen, they must beat West Ham on Monday and then advance through the quarter-finals.

Another interesting event would be Fulham progressing into the top four, as they face Aston Villa in Gameweek 34—a team with an excellent run of fixtures.

Of course, the highlight will be the Newcastle versus Manchester City game, which could wipe out blank GW31 for City and Palace, although the chance is small.

Everton 2:0 Burnley (xG: 1.30 - 0.79)

The other day, I got a promotional email from HBO Max after I finished watching A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: The Hedge Knight (that’s a pretty long name for such a short TV series, isn’t it?).

It said that the bearer of this letter (me) has proven their chivalric virtues and should rise to protect the Seven Kingdoms forever.

In my mind, I immediately visualised Ser Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall being knighted for his brave efforts in my FPL team, scoring nearly 7 points per gameweek over the last five matches.

If you think the international break should come sooner to protect my mental health, you’re absolutely right.

Anyway, with those upcoming fixtures, his 9-pointer against Burnley was probably a poetic farewell.

But that run and the finish… it was truly something.

Recently, I noticed that Burnley have improved in defending set-pieces, with 8 other teams conceding more xG from them since January, but that didn’t stop James Tarkowski (£5.7m) from delivering a bullet header from James Garner’s (£5.2m) free kick.

Later, Garner could collect a second assist from yet another set-piece delivery, but Jarrad Branthwaite was denied by Martin Dúbravka.

Nothing changes: target Burnley whenever you can.

Let’s proceed to Bruno, Salah, Pedro, Semenyo, and how to interpret everything that happened correctly…