Review: What changed (and what didn’t) in one weekend
10 games under scrutiny
I realised I have never done this on Data Dribble, but it’s actually a pretty good format for a short Christmas turnaround, as it lets you discuss a wide range of topics. Yes, it’s an old-fashioned Gameweek match review.
The timing is great, too, because it was quite an entertaining weekend of football for all the Premier League fans.
Minus those 12 million who also play Fantasy Premier League.
But we’ll get to that in a second.
Manchester United 1:0 Newcastle
xG: 1.27 - 1.18 (as per StatsBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout.com)
xThreat: 0.70 - 2.16
There’s so much going on with those two teams and the game itself that it would fill the entire article. Easily.
As expected, Rúben Amorim deployed the back four for the first time in a full match after experimenting with it in parts of the Bournemouth game in Gameweek 17. That move, along with several AFCON departures and Bruno’s injury, had some mouth-watering FPL consequences.
In last week’s Q&A, I discussed how United’s fullbacks would have more room to express themselves in the attacking third of the pitch with three key attacking players missing.
Sure enough, we saw some good late runs from deep and chance creation from both Diogo Dalot and Luke Shaw (both £4.5m). There was also a brand-new right winger, Patrick Dorgu, an out-of-position FPL defender priced at £4.2m—and 6% ownership at the time of writing this.
Dorgu scored this fantastic volley from Dalot’s long-throw routine, and Dalot could get on the score sheet himself later, after failing to convert his 0.50 xG chance following a free kick.
Those are positions you want to see your fullbacks in:
In the 61st minute of the game, Amorim tested what would happen if you take off one of the most defensively dominant number sixes in the Premier League. He learned shortly after. With Casemiro not on the pitch, Newcastle had all the positional dominance in the world but failed to capitalise on it with good chances—hopefully, the Brazilian stays on the pitch against Wolves for much longer.
Those of you on a Free Hit 19: don’t be afraid to stack United players—having all three is perfectly fine.
It’s a beautiful spot to attack, for both circumstantial reasons and the quality of the matchup.
By circumstances, I mean prospects to own full-backs (plural) with massive haul potential.
By the quality of the match-up, I’m referring not only to the fact that no other team has created less xG since Gameweek 6 (let’s ditch that early-season sample size for good) and has conceded 4th-most, but also to a stylistical fit.
In the same period, no other side allowed more dangerous chances from fast transitions than Wolves.
They also conceded the most goals from counter-attacks among Premier League sides.
United are a standout team in executing this type of attack and should continue to do so, even with a weakened squad. Remember what they did to Wolves in December.
And because the next three games for United are against Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley, and they also face Fulham, Spurs, and West Ham between GWs 24 and 26, there are bandwagons in the making:
Don’t fight it if you like it—it makes sense.
As for Newcastle, picking the right attacking player from their team is a serious headache, and you have to think carefully whether it’s worth it for you. Fortunately, there’s another solution for utilising those great upcoming fixtures.
Lewis Hall (£5.2m) has been dominant this season, and that United game made it crystal clear. Plus, they still create good chances from set-pieces, and Malick Thiaw’s (£5.0m) goal is looming.
Nottingham Forest 1:2 Manchester City
xG: 0.55 - 1.45
xThreat: 0.73 - 1.66
Sean Dyche’s Nottingham Forest are a sound defensive unit, and with this FDR, expect people to discuss Milenkovič & friends much more in the near future.
The fact is, since his arrival, they are ranked 2nd for xG conceded and top for xG per shot.
Oh, and they have a £4-million starting keeper now…
Still, the rate at which the City create great chances is impossible to handle this season, and they continue to do so despite losing the unstoppable Jérémy Doku (£6.4m) to a leg injury.
For Pep Guardiola, having both the Belgian and Rayan Cherki (£6.7m) in the squad is like moving from a high-end resort in Aruba to a private island in the Maldives—there may be more rain at times, but it’s a small price to pay when everything else is even more luxurious.
