Positional weaknesses: Key targets for the last two game weeks
You can still gain plenty of value
Two FPL game weeks remain, but don’t hang up your boots just yet—you can still gain plenty of value from the season’s final games.
As I mentioned last week, the edge now comes from the ability to evaluate matchups, whether through data or tactical knowledge. Understanding positional weaknesses, how some teams create their chances, and what types of shots others concede is very useful.
Without further ado, let’s dive into some interesting stuff I’ve found this week.
Ollie Watkins: A strong captaincy candidate for a reason
Although the Villans don’t face any relegated teams in their final two Gameweeks, they have one of the most enticing sets of fixtures (TOT, mun).
Their attacking players should be in demand, especially Ollie Watkins—at the time of writing, he is at the top of this week’s most popular transfer target table.
The home game against Tottenham Hotspur is quite obvious for a variety of reasons. The major aspect is that it will take place just five days before the Europa League final against Manchester United, which is of utmost importance to them.
The winner will automatically qualify for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group phase, regardless of their Premier League position (we all know what they are...), and will earn substantial money. Realistically, we are talking about £80 million.
They shifted their focus towards EL a long time ago, so some rotation and minute management will almost certainly happen. Dejan Kulusevski was forced off within 20 minutes of last weekend’s Palace game, and his start in the final is at risk, so Postecoglou will likely be advised not to take unnecessary risks. Speaking about that game...
Spurs 0:2 Crystal Palace
xG: 0.68 vs 3.39
Shots inside the box: 7 vs 17
Positional threat: 1.03 vs 2.64
Chance to win/draw: 4% - 10% - 86%
It was a carnage.
You can’t expect them to suddenly perform significantly better in an away match against a highly motivated Aston Villa.
This calendar year, they are ranked 17th in both xG conceded and expected points.
In the last 10 games? Essentially, the same.
It’s not just the massive volume of dangerous chances they allow. It’s also how this is happening. Since the end of February, no other team has been more vulnerable in the central areas close to their goal.
You could argue that Spurs and Leicester struggle the most with handling runs and passes into that space.
Now, I would like to debunk a strange narrative that has been circulating in the FPL community for quite some time—Tottenham don’t play a high defensive line anymore. We are no longer in the 2023/2024 season.
This year, the Lilywhites are employing a classic mid-block, which is somewhat vulnerable to counter-attacks. Yes, they concede quite a few chances from this type of attack, but it’s not a Saints-like disaster.
However, they allow many shots close to their goal from slow, positional attacks, which is Villa’s powerful weapon.
Positionally and tactically, this truly is an ideal match-up for Ollie Watkins. I would be comfortable handing him the captain’s armband in Gameweek 37. No questions asked.
Those of you who own Morgan Rogers can also rest easy. Yes, playing on the right means he poses very little goal threat, but the volume of final passes is huge, and he has some weird screamer in him. It can very well happen at least once in the next two games.
The nice thing about Villa is that there is also a United fixture in Gameweek 38. They will be fresh from the final, experiencing either the hangover of victory or the sting of defeat. It's not overly important which of those two it will be. They are another team that concedes chances even when sitting in a deep block.
Tielemans’ injury is a complication, but I feel people are overreacting. Yes, the Belgian possesses immense vision for the final pass in the attacking third, but his absence doesn’t make the team significantly less functional.
Unai Emery can always slightly adjust Rogers’s role, and he has several other creative options available.
Jarrod Bowen: On paper, this looks almost ideal
When you glance at the most crucial offensive metrics, West Ham’s attack certainly doesn’t scream out for picking their players. However, this is a fine example of extracting value from a talismanic player, even if things don’t exactly click for his team.
Bowen is the type of player who performs at a high level in every aspect: creativity in the build-up, delivering into the box in the final third, movement in the box, running, and the volume of actions—you name it.
So, when you add nearly ideal conditions, it creates a cocktail that is hard to resist. And by ideal conditions, I don’t mean only Nottingham Forest’s (well documented on my Patreon) and Ipswich’s defensive woes.
It’s also easy to penetrate their left channel.
To put it plainly, I’d say that Bowen likely has the best positional match-ups of all the players for the remainder of the season.
In the last 10 games, Ipswich allowed 160 entries into the box through their left channel (the most).
Only 2 other teams have a worse success rate at stopping passes and runs there.
40% of the chances they concede come from this area.
Okay, what about Nottingham Forest?
They allowed 130 entries into the box through their left channel, which is the second most.
40% of the chances they concede come from this area.
Opponents have an average success rate in penetrating it (still fine with the volume of attacks this high).
If the stars align, he could feast. Of course, even this can’t guarantee that he will haul in both remaining games, but it almost ensures he will have plenty of opportunities to pose a constant threat.
Owners can only hope that he will deliver the final product. There’s a high probability that he will.
Death, taxes, and Ipswich conceding from set pieces
Again, this is not new information, but it’s worth reminding you of it because it’s highly reliable.
We don’t need to go far to find a practical example: Gameweek 36, when Bryan Mbeumo took the corner and Kevin Schade converted his headed attempt, surrounded by four Ipswich defenders:
Since January, Ipswich have conceded 11 set-piece goals (and approximately 8 xG), the most in that time frame. Arsenal and Chelsea conceded 6, while Nottingham Forest conceded one less.
Regarding xG conceded from set pieces, the teams to target are Wolves, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Everton, and Newcastle. This information could assist you with your team selection or bench order.
Regarding the teams that generate the most dangerous chances:
Crystal Palace: 9.90 xG
Brentford: 8.30
Aston Villa: 6.30
Chelsea: 6.20
Arsenal: 5.90
Expected points: Teams to target
The expected points model (xPoints) evaluates the quality of the chances created and conceded by the team, then determines the likelihood of winning, losing, or drawing based on that.
From this, it allocates expected points.
It provides a clear idea of which teams to target. Aside from the relegated sides, the worst-performing teams since January are Tottenham Hotspur, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester United. West Ham and Everton aren’t far behind, but it’s mainly due to their attacks rather than poor defences.
The good thing is that when it comes to Spurs, United, and Forest, there’s no need to analyse match-ups in terms of positional weaknesses and tactical considerations, as they simply allow a huge volume of chances from all possible types of attacks.
Other notes
Some other findings that caught my attention...
Chelsea
Aside from Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, and Jarrod Bowen, I also like betting on Chelsea players, who face United and Forest in the last two GWs.
We have already discussed both teams' defensive struggles, so I would add that Forest might have a significant issue handling Chelsea’s transitions. Cole Palmer is an obvious pick for those who prefer that route (it’s okay if not, as there’s also Saka for GW38).
Additionally, Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) is suspended for the remainder of the season, which potentially means that we may see out-of-position Pedro Neto.
Brighton
I admit this one is pretty wild, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone from the Seagulls went bonkers in the last two weeks.
Half of Liverpool’s team is partying in Dubai, and Arne Slot was vocal about his plans to rotate his team in the final games.
After that, the Seagulls play Spurs, who will have a tough time handling their heavy counter-pressing. Kaoru Mitoma, anyone?
Mohamed Salah in GW38
It certainly helps that Salah doesn’t drink alcohol.
The final game of the season at Anfield offers an excellent positional match-up.
Additionally, Liverpool are by far the best team regarding quick transitions, whereas Palace often struggles against this type of team.
Morgan Rogers against Spurs
I know, I know...