My first draft (to discuss some picks)

It’s still early, but it’s an opportunity to debate some players

Alright.

I was going to continue with the newly promoted teams series, but it’s 40 degrees Celsius outside, so I decided it’s time for a leaner, more fun (sorry, Coventry) good-vibes read you can take to the beach.

I’ll discuss different approaches to building a Gameweek 1 squad in the coming weeks, so let’s keep this one super simple:

1️⃣ I’m considering an 8-GW window with a heavier emphasis on the opening 6
2️⃣ No chip plans for that period, apart from wildcarding around GWs 6-8. There’s an international break after Gameweek 5, and I’d ideally like to see a few GWs of info after that – so this is just a raw draft with an emphasis on picks themselves

The process behind the draft can be summed up as:

→ pick “essentials” first
→ add one MID I’m bullish on…
→ complete the defence and make sure not to overspend
→ pick the 3 remaining midfield players (the biggest challenge)

Let’s do it.

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský: The way I see it, it’s either betting on Arsenal’s defence being elite again and going for a double-up that includes David Raya (£6.0m), or picking someone from the £4.5 million category to chase value.

It’s the lowest-EV position, and I don’t want to analyse small edges and tiny xP differences for keepers priced at £5.0 and £5.5 million. 

I’m okay with Senne Lammens when, for example, you can’t fit United DEF because you’re bullish on other players. But that’s it.

Current market projections on Solio look like this:

That’s what I mean by small edges.

❓ So, the question is: Antonín Kinský or Bart Verbruggen?

Towards the end of last season, both Spurs and Brighton performed great defensively.

Following De Zerbi’s arrival, Spurs averaged the lowest xG conceded in the league across those 700 minutes (0.79 p90, per StatsBomb data via FantasyFootballScout.com). I mean, they won’t be the best defence next season, but they should be solid, and the fixtures look good.

You might still remember I was raving about Brighton’s defence in the second half of last season – since Gameweek 19, only Arsenal performed better in xGC, and they had the 5th-lowest xG per shot conceded, which is great for saves, especially for an amazing shot-stopper like Verbruggen.

But I’m picking Kinský because I’d like to own a specific Brighton defender and to spread the risk. More on that later…

Essentials

I don’t want to use that horrid E-word too often, but I’m making an exception this time.

Cristian Mosquera (£5.5m): Losing William Saliba will affect the defence to some extent, but it’s impossible to quantify the exact impact because the context changes and you can’t draw a direct comparison with the previous season. 

I believe Arsenal’s defence will continue to rank among the best in the league, and given that run of fixtures, paying £5.5 million for a piece of that is a no-brainer. 

When Saliba’s back, you’ll have enough information to solve that problem sensibly.

💡 Last season, Arsenal conceded about 0.75 xG and actual goals per 90, despite some injury problems. Solio has it by default at 0.92 goals conceded, which seems about right.

Still, they are comfortably at the top of the defensive table.

Check below:

Erling Haaland (£15.5m) & Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m): 

As I’ve discussed in my article on pricing and value, this season’s pricing can be summarised in 3 points:

• make the previous campaign’s top performers more expensive relative to the field

• increase prices for top DEFCON performers

• keep the rest of the players affordable

Owning both Haaland and Bruno doesn’t compromise squad-building in my opinion, and you’re getting two reliable captaincy options to shield all gameweeks.

Also, you cover their EO, as they are now selected in 75% and 49% of teams, respectively.

Now the one that might not be everyone’s cup of tea.