Morgan Rogers and Alejandro Garnacho could be great picks if…
Some thoughts on £7.5 and £6 million midfielders
Whether you like it or not, you will come across plenty of DEFCON content this season, and the Data Dribble is no exception. If you read my series on how new coaches will change the way clubs play this season, you already know.
But man, the thing I love analysing most is goals and where they could come from.
And I see them in both Morgan Rogers (£7.5m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£6.0m), provided certain conditions are met…
For Morgan Rogers, the left is the right place to be
Morgan Rogers was quite a frustrating pick last season.
It seemed he either a) ran super hot or b) did absolutely nothing.
Nothing in between.
The key with him was to pay attention to his role within the team and how it affected his performance. It was a great example of how tracking changes in the team’s dynamics and positional trends could help you predict players’ outputs.
Now, I have some bad news for you.
Clubs don’t buy players to help you do well in the Fantasy Premier League.
I wish they did, but they don’t.
Chelsea bought Rogers for his receiving, the threat he creates with his passes in both the build-up and the final third, and because his first instinct is to play the ball forward and worry about the rest later.
The fact that he does so in the final third is important for FPL, as it creates assists – Rogers recorded 16 of them in the last two seasons, not including fantasy assists.
But you also want goals. There were 10 last campaign (8 the season before that), so the question is whether it’s repeatable.
When you look at the shot map, doubts start to creep in:
Those three goals outside the box, xG overperformance, and subpar centrality… are not good signs.
But when you look at the shot map from the previous season, dots start to connect:
Some more goals from distance, this time from relatively few attempts, and another xG overperformance.
Across about 8,000 Premier League minutes, Rogers has been a great finisher, with about 40% xG overperformance, though this should probably be adjusted because he didn’t exactly shine during 3,000 minutes in the Championship.
Also, 8,000 is a solid sample size, though not massive, so some luck is still involved. All in all, he can strike the ball…
💡 Now, the quality of shots matters far more than finishing skills in football, but if you pair them together, you’re creating an explosive goal-scoring cocktail.
And there’s one position where Rogers poses a much greater goal threat:
On the left (2,100 minutes, data per 90 minutes):
2.20 non-penalty shots
0.25 non-penalty xG
0.40 non-penalty goals
0.23 xG assisted
Centrally (3,600):
1.80 non-penalty shots
0.15 non-penalty xG
0.17 non-penalty goals
0.18 xG assisted
On the right (1,100)
0.80 non-penalty shots
0.10 non-penalty xG
0 non-penalty goals
0.20 xG assisted
He likes to cut in and is right-footed, so it’s not rocket science to see where that xG overperformance comes from. But it’s not only that he can score bangers from his favourite move – his attempts are higher quality and more frequent, and he plays better final passes there.
❗ Also, it’s not just about the final product.
Playing on the left, Rogers posts much better results in advanced VAEP/goal-probability-added metrics that track his on-ball actions and measure how they increase the team’s chance of scoring. That goes for his passing, carrying, and dribbling.
While he’s in the 80th percentile for most of these metrics when on the left, he drops below average centrally, which is a big deal if you ask me.
Based on how Chelsea’s squad looks, I think you can realistically expect Xabi Alonso to play Rogers in his most natural position, either as a left winger or a left #10, depending on the formation. Of course, there might be a 4-2-3-1 with Rogers central, but I hope that’s not the case.
Rogers in his natural habitat would be great news for FPL managers, because he’s simply a different beast there. Having as many midfielders as possible who can both score and assist is good for the game.
What’s less good news is that Rogers is priced at £7.5 million, which is probably £0.5 – £1 million lower than it should be if he’s LW. I’m writing this only half an hour after the FPL launched for the new season, so I need to let it sink in.
My annual “first impression on pricing and value” article will be out tomorrow.
In the meantime, you can check my Xabi Alonso & Chelsea deep dive I wrote this pre-season. It includes a free section:
Is Xabi Alonso a perfect match for Chelsea in FPL?
Chelsea have recently experienced several turbulent managerial spells.
Alejandro Garnacho + Unai Emery: What if this works?
Now, this won’t be a popular topic.
But I still think there’s so much potential, goals, and assists in Alejandro Garnacho (£6m).
It’s hard to articulate what needs to happen if you’re not inside the club and don’t know the player personally. But let’s assume that, with Garnacho, it’s about playing under a coach you respect, who is straightforward with you, builds your confidence, and trusts you.
I saw it firsthand during my career in professional football – with some players, it’s difficult to build that trust, but once it’s there...
Last season, Aston Villa played Emi Buendia on the left, a very different player.
He’s not someone who’d attack the box with his runs, get into good shooting positions, or be a great runner in terms of creating a threat in the final third.
In some of his previous Villa seasons, the Argentinian proved to be great 1v1, had great vision for the final pass, and generally won a lot of balls, but last season was probably his worst.
Garnacho was between 17 and 20 years old during his Manchester United 6,000-minute spell and still:
1️⃣ ranked in the 95th+ percentile for threat generated by runs
2️⃣ averaged 3.10 non-penalty shots with 0.30 non-penalty xG (both 90th+ percentile)
3️⃣ … and added about average xG assisted
The finishing wasn’t his strong suit, to say the least, but it was okay given the sheer volume of good chances he had. Poor finishers can still have great careers. Just look at Gabriel Jesus.
He simply carries the ball into the box and then shoots close to goal. And that’s what you want to see from a player as an FPL manager, really.
What’s crazy is that at Chelsea, it was a totally different Garnacho. Although he kept his carrying threat, he also produced some crazy passing numbers:
He recorded 4 assists in about 1,400 minutes, but it could have been much more. Looking at clips, most of his creativity came from distributing inside the box, but what might surprise you is that he also took quite a few amazing crosses from deep, which was unexpected, to say the least.
Unlock that energy in him, unlock all his creative and goal-scoring potential, and you have a player who can repay you with decisive moments.
❗ The only caveat is that this is a season-long loan deal with an obligation to buy if “certain criteria are met”, with those criteria likely to be a set number of starts. That makes this an even firmer wait-and-see in FPL.
That’s all for today.
See you soon!