Liverpool, United, and the rest — how to navigate the most chaotic month in FPL history

Let's embrace the chaos

Note: This newsletter is truncated in an email. You can click on “View entire message” to see the full post in your email app.

It’s happening, folks.

6 and a half weeks, and 10 gameweeks of the Fantasy Premier League within that period.

Also, the next lengthy international break isn’t until late March — after Gameweek 31 finishes.

While we’re finally gaining proper momentum and an uninterrupted run of games, it’s also an instant jump into a hectic period where you can get dizzy from all the information and need to make rapid decisions.

No matter how you feel about Christmas, there’s one thing we can all agree on: it’s better when experienced peacefully.

The same applies to FPL. It should bring enjoyment and competition, making watching football a more rewarding experience.

Battling crowds, empty shelves, and panic-buying whatever’s left at 5 p.m. on Christmas Eve, it might happen.

Panicking while playing FPL? That’s not how we roll at Data Dribble.

Let’s make sense of all this.

---

What exactly is happening right now?

A brief general overview follows — skip this section if you’re only interested in traditional players and teams analysis.

In short, quite a bit...

This year, we must be aware of a strange new dynamic.

1️⃣ In Gameweek 16, all managers’ free transfers will be topped out to 5, no matter how many you have had in Gameweek before.

Those new AFCON transfers pave the way for some short-term, high-value moves, although these aren’t obligatory.

It doesn’t mean you only need to target GWs 12 to 15 and then offload players with a new batch of FTs. You can still choose to use most of those GW16 transfers later.

It’s about striking the right balance, and two things drive it:

• Your specific team needs: injuries, owning underperforming players, not owning players from major fixture swings, etc.

• Your risk aversion

2️⃣ Some of us still have chips from that first batch that was introduced back in July.

Self-explanatory.

There are several options to consider, mainly involving Free Hit and Bench Boost chips, and “manipulating” them within your decision-making process.

Altogether with those free transfers, it’s uncharted territory, which makes the game a bit more complicated.

3️⃣ Some players are leaving for AFCON, obviously.

And we still don’t know when. Some might leave straight after GW15, some after GW16. To be decided.

Below is some more AFCON talk:

4️⃣ To make it even trickier, there’s a major fixture swing in GW13 for Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Brentford, or Newcastle.

Alright, what now?

Antoine Semenyo: The dull period and how to handle it

He’s one of those who are shouting 'I’m not leaving' into the proverbial microphone, Jordan Belfort style.

Yankuba Minteh, Mohammed Kudus, and Beto are among other notable players who won’t travel to the Africa Cup.

About six weeks ago, this would definitely have been good news. But… is it now? Because if you’re an owner, you probably noticed that his point intake has dropped significantly lately.

Of course, a player not earning points doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t performing well, nor that you should sell him. But the reality is, Semenyo’s (£8.1m) performances aren’t what they used to be.

Last season, his final product screamed that he’s destined to shine during the following campaign.

He averaged:

• 3.50 non-penalty shots p90

• 0.27 non-penalty xG p90

• 0.35 post-shot xG p90 (as per StataBomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout.com)

For a winger, this expected goals number is around the 80th percentile, meaning he’s among the top 20% performers. And if you combine it with his high shot volume (only two other players were more active) and good finishing, it results in explosive production.

You often hear people say Semenyo’s finishing is poor, but that’s not really accurate. Over 220 shots during his time at Bournemouth, his finishing has been perfectly fine.

The perception is skewed because he takes many poor long-range attempts, and given the volume, he appears wasteful. However, when it comes to getting into the central areas and converting from there, there’s no problem whatsoever. Nor with his overall finishing ability.

To include one more basic expected number (we don’t need to go into more detail here), he averaged 0.14 expected assists per 90, which isn’t elite, but it complements his goal threat well.

He was entering his 3rd full Premier League season, and I was pretty confident he would become one of the top wingers there. A season keeper, almost.

He truly started well — after the first five gameweeks, he averaged 2.20 shots, 0.47 xG, and 0.08 xA, despite facing several tricky opponents.

After that… well, let’s describe it more eye-testy.

In the following six gameweeks, he:

• took only 10 shots, with just 3 from central areas

• played zero passes directly leading to a shot inside the box

Such a drop in shot volume is certainly concerning. Just 1.50 shots with 0.11 xG per 90, and not creating anything is bleak.

However, the next three games are:

• West Ham (home)

• Sunderland (away)

• Everton (home)

Two home games against teams that concede many dangerous chances, and one fixture open for interpretation (but not too bad). Although Bournemouth don’t perform well offensively at the moment — apart from maybe Junior Kroupi — Semenyo’s past performances are still enough to keep him for the next three games. Then reassess.

You could say he’s in a good headspace now:

Additionally, his £65 million release clause makes a January move possible, which could see him more motivated than ever.

What’s coming next in this article:

• Fernandes, Cunha, and Diallo — if they move further up the pitch, can we expect a much better final product?

• Jérémy Doku: Is now the time to pair Haaland with a chief creator?

• Liverpool: The fixture swing and how to make the most of it

• Is Virgil van Dijk a no-brainer?

• Are there two new differentials emerging?

• And much more!