Igor Thiago? It’s not over yet, folks… (Meanwhile, Santos might be the answer to everything Chelsea)

Stuff solvers don’t show you

This season is unlike anything you have ever seen.

Let’s take the Gameweek 21 events, for example:

I fully expected Djordje Petrovič to concede from a shot travelling at 3 miles per hour.

Nuno Espírito Santo losing to Nottingham Forest, the team that had sacked him a few months earlier, was also on the cards.

Brentford sitting 5th in the Premier League table despite the summer mass exodus? Well, I tried to tell you during pre-season and early on.

But Thomas Frank, sipping coffee from an Arsenal paper cup and claiming he had no idea? Well, no one could have predicted that.

Yet here I am, trying to forecast the future in the Premier League and FPL… Anyway, if you analyse diligently, you can still prepare for a lot of what’s coming.

Today, it’s about Chelsea, Andrey Santos, Igor Thiago, budget forwards, or playing 4-5-1.

Let’s dive straight in:

Liam Rosenior: The saviour who performed miracles in Strasbourg?

Chelsea’s favourable fixture run from Gameweeks 24 to 27 has been on everyone’s radar for some time.

It’s the kind of run that prompts fantasy managers to use their wildcards—it includes matches against West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley, with 75% of those games at Stamford Bridge.

Enzo Maresca’s departure and the appointment of his successor, Liam Rosenior, just a few weeks before that run, aren’t the worst thing in the world.

Although the cup game against Charlton isn’t something we should draw strong conclusions from, we’ll have information from 5 additional games before GW24 starts, giving us a much clearer idea of who the best Chelsea triple-up is.

But it’s not as if we don’t have any information at the moment… Although Rosenior is a relatively little-known addition to the Premier League, he impressed as Derby’s interim head coach and then built credibility at Hull and Strasbourg. And we can draw a lot from his last spell.

In Ligue 1, he took over a club that had previously ranked 13th out of 18. Their overall performance was in line with expectations—they earned 42 expected points, the 13th-best result in that xPoints table.

Rosenior then enjoyed a successful first season in charge. Strasbourg climbed as high as 7th, securing qualification for the UEFA Conference League. How lucky (or unlucky) was that?

Well, there was some good fortune involved—in the xPoints table, their performances were good for 10th place and 44 expected points, while in reality they earned 57 points. It was the biggest overperformance in Ligue 1 that season.

It’s worth noting that Strasbourg had the 12th-highest wage bill in the previous season, and, based on the summer transfers, the 2024/25 wage bill likely rose only modestly overall.

Players’ wages are closely tied to a team’s performance. Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski highlight in their book, Soccernomics, that the wage bill can largely explain a team’s final position in the Premier League table. 

It makes sense if you think about it. The better players you can attract to the team, the better performances you can enjoy. And with greater success comes better-paid players. You simply need to pay them more for them to stay and be happy.

So, considering this was Rosenior’s first season managing a team in the top 5 European leagues, he did reasonably well, keeping the team at a level similar to that of Vieira’s era. While he was fortunate with the results, he generally didn’t disappoint.

At the same time, however, you can’t say he performed any miracles with the team.

This will be their weakness. How to exploit it?

They were well balanced in how they executed different kinds of attacks, but one thing stands out about their defence—and it’s something we can utilise when playing FPL.

You’ve probably already heard that Rosenior loves playing from the back, using the goalkeeper as an “extra” outfield player in the build-up. That takes time to implement, and even if you have it drilled, it can leave you vulnerable to sides that press and counter-press well.

This was definitely a recurring theme for Strasbourg last season—no other Ligue 1 side conceded more expected (7.70) and actual (7) goals from counter-pressing situations than them.

Chelsea will attempt many passes in all phases of play and will definitely take risks when playing out from the back. Several Premier League teams can punish this, including Liverpool, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and both Manchester teams.

Did you notice anything in that list?