Alright, guys.
We’re replacing my traditional free-flowing analytical Tuesday article with another edition of the Thought Process series.
The reason is simple – I want to build the Wildcard 3 draft for the upcoming Thursday deep dive (and also discuss the Free Hit 3 team), and I need as much information as possible to do so. With the summer transfer window closing on Tuesday at 23:00 CET, I’d be missing a crucial piece of information needed to publish it.
Of course, there’s no escaping chip strategies, even today.
However, there’s also that one little thing called a free transfer, so let’s see whether there’s a good use for it.
It’s a week when Manchester City face Coventry at home, after all.
🍕 What’s on today’s menu?
Manchester United face Everton: Is that a good match-up?
Pros and cons of using a free transfer on Rayan Cherki
Should you triple captain Erling Haaland?
One strong team-dependent argument for Haaland TC
Solio vs FPL Copilot vs Review vs my brain
Is Free Hit 4 the answer for my team?
This week’s benching decisions
And more!
United vs Everton: Is there any value?
Before we do that, let’s do a super-quick recap of Gameweek 2 before discussing 🤖.
While I was content with the team, I certainly didn’t expect to enter the 100-point club that early in the season, especially in a Gameweek when I’m not using a chip.
And yet, here we are.
It’s a 27-point green arrow:
There were an unprecedented 18 returns among my players, and aside from Bruno Fernandes’ mega haul, I’d say Pascal Groß’s (£5.5m) 13-pointer at 3.4% effective ownership was the highlight of the week.
Bryan Mbeumo (£8.0m) already had some good moments in the opening game against Hull, but on Sunday he contributed to United’s humongous 4.77 xG – as per Statsbomb numbers via FantasyFootballScout – with 5 non-penalty shots and 1.76 xG (plus 0.21 xA), resulting in an 11-point haul.
Despite missing this chance:
By the way, Everton conceded 2.16 xG against Bournemouth and 1.96 against Palace. Even though it’s a small sample, given their 6th-worst xG conceded last season and Garner/Hackney still lacking ideal match fitness, I’m rather optimistic about that attacking double-up.
There’s also the Bruno Fernandes and Harry Maguire link-up in my team, as defending set pieces wasn’t Everton's strongest suit last season. The most important metric for evaluating how a team defends corners is xG conceded per corner, which reflects opponents’ effectiveness – the Toffees ranked worst in that metric last year.
In those two opening games, they already conceded some dangerous set-piece shots.
Given the current FPL meta, it’s good that both Tarik Muharemovič and Issa Diop have hit the DEFCON threshold. Those small gains compound over time.
Interestingly, looking at my team, there are quite a few decisions to make this week:
Is it time to triple captain Erling Haaland?
Alright, Erling Haaland (£15.5m).
His average expected value (EV), based on the Solio, FPL Copilot, and FPL Review models, is around 8.20. He’s the clear captaincy option and even a suitable candidate for the Triple Captain chip.
You’ll be the judge of how you want to approach him.
In my case, including him in my Gameweek 1 draft makes things straightforward – I either captain him or triple-captain him.
Triple-captaining Haaland this week has several perks.
1️⃣ Apart from the more general ones we’ll discuss later, there’s one that suits my situation well.
Given how my team is structured, it’s difficult for me to bring in another Manchester City player. That’s why I’ve already discussed Manchester United’s stack potential against Everton.
In theory, I could sacrifice Bryan Mbeumo by using 1 FT to swap him for Rayan Cherki (£7.6m) or Phil Foden (£7.0m). I don’t completely rule it out at this stage, but it feels like a luxury transfer, and I might miss that FT in future.
💡 At the same time, it’s not a bad move, especially when it comes to Cherki.
There’s a simple thought process I like to use in those situations:
If you’re bullish on Erling Haaland enough to consider captaining him, you believe he’ll score goals → there’s a good chance someone will assist those goals → Rayan Cherki is great at assisting goals. Wow.
Last season, he recorded 0.42 xG assisted per 90 minutes (more than Bruno) across 2,000 minutes played, which simply means he has an exceptional ability to play a final pass.
It stems from the fact that he can play about a gazillion types of creative passes and can do so with both feet. The way he thinks about those short passes from zone 14 and half-spaces aimed into central areas in the box is a thing of beauty. Sure, he can play through-balls from deeper areas, but the way he can break the low block when near the box… well, I probably need to write a deep dive on him.
If he gets proper minutes, he is a natural fit for ALL Haaland teams, more so if he can also arrive in good goal-scoring positions himself.
Predicting xMins is a tricky part: you can reasonably expect about 75 for the near future, with a lot of uncertainty as you progress through the season.
Having Manchester City double- or triple-up is still a nice play if you can sensibly load up on them. There’s a good chunk of managers who will get there comfortably by using a Free Hit or Wildcard, so I like that playing triple captain on Haaland means you’re effectively getting one more City player – and the best one – without using a transfer, and you can close the gap.
There’s a higher chance I’ll be more exposed to City players later in the season, whereas now I’m underexposed for that fixture and can balance it out.
If that makes sense.
2️⃣ If I do it now, I won’t lose a ton of EV.
Quick look at the Solio Analytics numbers:
Haaland (COV, GW3): 8.40 EV
Palmer (HUL, GW4): 7.10
Haaland (IPS, GW7): 8.10
Bruno Fernandes (COV, GW14): 7.50
Haaland (HUL, GW16): 8.95
Sure, Hull in Gameweek 16 is the best option on current EV, but is it really?
It’s just an educated guess for now. Comparing those three newly promoted teams is tricky because all have undergone a classic Premier League rebuild, and it remains to be seen how they will gel and settle.
Based on their last season’s numbers, the Championship tax, their transfer market activity so far, and their performances in those two opening fixtures (even though that’s just a tiny hint), there’s no reason not to rank Coventry as serious relegation candidates.
I’m a simple man – I don’t mind triple-captaining Erling Haaland, who faces a newly promoted team at home after he spent 90 minutes on the pitch and scored 2 goals against a much better defensive unit.
3️⃣ Circumstantial stuff