Alright, reader.
The 2026/2027 Premier League and fantasy season is finally underway, and so is the Thought Process series, where we’ll talk more about data, decision-making, mindset, various frameworks, and how to apply good old “it’s team-dependent, bro”.
The plan remains unchanged.
We’re now in the stage of accumulating information, learning what’s a signal and what’s just noise, and constantly reassessing as new developments emerge. Unless we’re absolutely sure and have strong evidence, we’re refraining from making overly strong statements based on the low sample size of data.
If you ever see this online, it’s usually content designed to drive engagement and create unnecessary pick-anxiety among managers. It’s mostly wrong unless you think that person is a genius.
Here’s what a man who founded StatsBomb, the world’s most recognisable football data company, laid the foundations of modern set-piece tactics at Brentford, and is a sports-betting professional, has to say about this Premier League season:
Yeah…
The hectic final week of the summer transfer window is in full swing, with so much going on.
Over the past few days:
Sávio and Omar Marmoush → Spurs
Ayyoub Bouaddi → Manchester City
Carlos Baleba → Manchester United
Exequiel Palacios → Ipswich
El Hadji Malick Diouf → Brentford
Nico González → Newcastle
Liam Delap → Nottingham Forest
Nicolas Jackson → Aston Villa
Leon Goretzka → Aston Villa
Bradley Barcola → Liverpool
Some of those transfers have not yet been officially announced, but they are reportedly very close to being finalised. All of those players have either:
1️⃣ a direct impact on other potential picks (or be picks themselves)
2️⃣ and/or significantly alter team strengths
Also, Liverpool are trying to sign Ismaïla Sarr, independently of the Barcola deal, and Enzo Fernández might join City, along with Iliman Ndiaye or Cody Gakpo, who’s also linked with Spurs.
Plus, so much is going on behind the scenes.
It’s chaos.
And once the dust settles, it’s far from over.
In Gameweek 3, teams will be locked in, but we still won’t know the line-ups or the dynamics. Take Ayyoub Bouaddi, for example. I know those transfer fees can be absurd, but I can see why City paid £85.6 million.
Never in my life – and I’ve seen a lot – have I come across a player who was that defensively dominant while also influential in the build-up, at 17 YEARS OLD, with two seasons in the top 5 league already under his belt. The precision and decision-making when tackling, his reading of the game, and the massive volume of balls won in areas that matter were unprecedented.
He was also a physical monster in Ligue 1, which is essential to succeeding in the Premier League.
However, it’s nearly impossible to tell:
how his skill set will translate into those early phases of his PL career
how quickly he’ll be eased in
what it means for Elliot Anderson
… and what role Enzo Fernández plays in all this
And I could make 10 pages of questions like this for every team in the league.