GW13 Thought Process: Why I'm not waiting for perfect EV + wildcard draft

These are fun weeks

Oh, so this is what it feels like to be lucky…

In many of the GWs this season, I’m missing that one thing to truly climb the ranks: one more goal from a low-EO player, one more assist, or one more clean sheet.

This week, I got that little bit extra right at the last moment thanks to Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (a £4.9 million player!), who singlehandedly carries my team for two weeks in a row.

Thanks to him and Yankuba Minteh, I finished Gameweek 12 with a nice 12-point green arrow and will try to make another push, despite not using the Free Hit chip. Not that I think it’s a bad idea fundamentally — I just don’t have it anymore, ehm.

However, that doesn’t mean I won’t play a chip… (more on that later)

I’m framing this and placing it in my living room.

First, I want to do something I call “a sanity check”.

We all recognise both scenarios: when you’re on a downswing, it feels like no matter what you do, it always ends badly. Conversely, when you’re on a heater, you feel unstoppable. Nothing can hold you back.

Seven hefty green arrows in a row? No problem: you'll reach ten and beyond, simply because of the fantastic team you've created. The mind plays tricks in both directions.

In some skill-based games involving an element of luck, you overcome losing streaks by increasing the volume. In online poker, this means entering more tournaments. In Daily Fantasy Sports, you enter more line-ups into tournaments or play more of them. In live poker, your options are limited because, physically, you can only enter so many tournaments within a month or a year.

In FPL, you have only a limited number of decisions to make — a few transfers, captaincy, bench order, and that’s pretty much it. Then you wait a week. It means you need to do some work on the background (on top of the usual planning).

Analysing your team each week helps you stay calm and make good decisions.

Djordje Petrovič and Marcos Senesi, aka Bournemouth vs West Ham: The Cherries conceded four goals in GW11 and now another two a gameweek later... but if you look deeper, there’s still no reason to panic (though staying alert always helps).

They conceded after two mistakes — Petrovič failed to make a save against Wilson’s long-range effort, and then they conceded from a poorly defended set piece. Then the game-state factor came into play as they sat deep to defend against a series of attacks in the second half.

It’s not frustrating that it happened, but it’s frustrating that it happened in this particular favourable match-up.

The double clean sheet wipeout was highlighted by Palace keeping a clean sheet despite conceding 1.80 xG and two massive chances inside the 6-yard box against Wolves.

Sunderland, Everton, and Burnley are coming soon, so there’s no need to address this just yet.

Virgil van Dijk: That DEFCON two pointer during his debut in my team was a small victory, considering this wasn’t a good defensive display at all. But since I bought him for a long-term run of great fixtures, and the next three are West Ham, Sunderland, and Leeds, let’s reevaluate after that.

Jurriën Timber: You’d expect your defender to secure a clean sheet when facing 0.07 xG across the whole game. However…

Anyway, it’s fine since the Dutch registered an assist and three shots inside the box. One of those chances was a huge miss from inside the 6-yard box. A few days later, he scored a set-piece goal against Bayern.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall: My 1.1% EO bench jam after Antoine Semenyo missed the West Ham game. I put him as 1st sub as a designated set-piece taker against a team that struggles to defend them, but a goal, full bonus, defensive contribution two-pointer, and clean sheet will do, especially when Gueye got sent off in the 13th minute. This will probably remain the funniest haul (13 points) of my season.

Yankuba Minteh: Two assists and an 11-pointer. Brighton are a strange, mid-table team this season, but Minteh remains a reliable pick with a good run of games ahead — so much energy and creativity in the final third for just £6.1m.

Bukayo Saka: Annoyingly, he wasn’t directly involved in any of the four goals scored. Also, it wasn’t a very good performance in terms of producing the final product. Still, in six games before that, he was on 2.10 non-penalty shots, 0.26 non-penalty xG, and 0.29 xG assisted per 90, which I still see as sufficient in this cruel midfield landscape.

Ismaïla Sarr: Do I like his recent performances? No. Will I do anything before he departs for AFCON? Most likely not, as I’m a prisoner of the fixtures (United, Burnley and Fulham).

Antoine Semenyo: He’s apparently back in training, but he might be on the chopping block soon if he doesn’t return to his usual standards. The next five fixtures are fine, so this is his spot to lose.

Jean-Philippe Mateta: He stays unless he goes on strike trying to secure a new contract.

Erling Haaland: Frankly, taking 5 shots and recording 1.54 non-penalty xG (!) against this Newcastle team is absurd.

João Pedro: The only comment is that I’ll be selling him to Igor Thiago this week, as planned for several weeks now:

• Burnley comes next

• He’s the focal point of a quite solid attack

• Great fixtures after GW14

• It’s a nice hedge against Free Hitters

I’ll take that.

To sum up, the team looks in good shape for now. Nothing that a few transfers couldn’t fix.

Before we analyse my second move and create a Wildcard 13 team, GW12 visually: