Gameweek 38 musings: Top picks, differentials, and defence
One last push.
Gameweek 38 presents managers with another DFS-style team selection, but there’s considerable uncertainty this time and a lot of guessing game is involved. It’s quite open, and it could be swingy.
Nevertheless, let’s take one final deep dive into the current FPL landscape for the 2024/2025 season. We will assess all the top picks, differentials, and defenders with high upsides.
The last samba
Buying Bournemouth players for their home game against Leicester might seem like a boring play, but:
a) boring doesn’t mean bad
b) if it works, you can still earn an interesting rank boost on the final day
If you look at players’ ownerships in the top 100k, it is surprisingly low at this moment:
Milos Kerkez: 18.70%
Evanilson: 6.65% (!)
Kepa: 4.04%
Antoine Semenyo: 1.99%
Dean Huijsen: 1.97%
Justin Kluivert: 1.96%
These numbers basically tell me to shut the laptop and come back to FPL ten minutes before the deadline—to make an Evanilson transfer.
Depending on your rank goals or mini-league aspirations, it might tell YOU something different. If you are looking for a defender transfer and want to maintain your rank, Kerkez is probably a sound decision. If you are chasing, you have numerous options across all positions.
The expected points table offers a solid overview of teams’ abilities, considering both attacking and defensive performances. Leicester's ranking at 19th this calendar year (so, over the last 18 games) likely won't come as a surprise.
During the same period, Bournemouth are ranked 9th for xG, creating chances with almost identical volume and quality as Aston Villa and Arsenal.
The Foxes allow many dangerous shots to their opponents and are vulnerable from nearly all areas of the pitch, so you can’t go wrong when selecting your preferred offensive player from Bournemouth’s team.
Although the Cherries can certainly create chances through slow, positional attacks, their strategy in the final third revolves around intensity—they score many goals from quick transitions and counter-pressing situations. Leicester are struggling to handle both.
Since GW20:
20th in xG conceded from counter-attacks
the most goals conceded from counter-attacks
19th in xG conceded from counter-pressing
6th most goals conceded from counter-pressing
Even though Bournemouth have a future Real Madrid centre-back, Dean Huijsen, they are not a team that tends to be overly keen on defending, which makes this game one that promises plenty of goals.
Of course, it’s football, and it may not capitalise, but the potential ceiling of their key players is incredibly high. Both Evanilson and Kerkez are outstanding picks.
The Brazilian ranks among the most in-form strikers over the last, let’s say, 10 game weeks. When it comes to his movement and activity in the box, he averages:
3 non-penalty shots p90
0.56 non-penalty xG p90
0.57 post-shot xG p90
... which translates into:
28 shots
27 shots in the box
24 shots centrally
6 shots from a six-yard box
What a beautiful shot map. It’s something similar to what Yoane Wissa posts.
And even though Kluivert’s finishing reverted to the mean, he remains a sensible pick, particularly if you already own Evanilson, as he is his chief creator.
So, there it is: a small confirmation bias for you all.
Post-EL hangover and its implications
To follow up on the xPoints table I mentioned earlier, it’s no surprise that the relegated team sits at the bottom. However, these are not the only sides to attack:
15. Manchester United (GW38 against Aston Villa)
16. Nottingham Forest (Chelsea)
17. Tottenham (Brighton)
Whatever happens in Wednesday’s Europa League final between Spurs and United, you can’t see either side bothering with defence in the final Premier League match. Not a chance.
Aston Villa players are already prominently featured among engaged FPL managers, and they obviously aren’t going anywhere. All their usual fantasy suspects are superb picks for this game week—let’s not dwell on it any longer.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea will be interesting, given the game’s significance, but considering other match-ups, it probably isn’t essential to be too invested in it.
If you already have some coverage from both teams, you would naturally ride it out, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about buying anyone except Cole Palmer (if he suits your GW38 strategy).
The Spurs vs Brighton match promises a bunch of goals. I mentioned this last week, and indeed, there was a goal from Kaoru Mitoma (let’s pretend he actually started the game):
Brighton is the team to target if you are chasing heavily, open to risks, or need to be different. No one truly owns their players: the most owned are Bart Verbruggen... and Fabian Hürzeler, who isn’t even a player, lol.
Brajan Gruda has likely secured a second consecutive start, which opens up a path to this ultra-differential option should you find yourself unhappy with Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck, João Pedro, or Yankuba Minteh.
I would probably go for one of their midfielders, although it’s difficult to point out a favourite at this moment, as it largely depends on information from the presser. I would recommend selecting one you are certain will start. It's a pretty simple fantasy framework when you face a difficult decision.
Danny Welbeck finds himself in an excellent position inside the box, so there’s nothing wrong with selecting him. However, it’s simply too crowded in the forward position.
Where to find more goals? What about differentials?
Looking at the fixtures, it truly seems that Gameweek 38 will be a goal galore. Another six teams that offer a wide range of viable attacking picks are:
Manchester City (Fulham away)
Arsenal (Southampton away)
Newcastle (Everton at home)
Liverpool (Crystal Palace at home)
West Ham (Ipswich away)
Brentford (Wolves away)
Let’s briefly discuss each of them.
Writing this in the middle of the week, I am working with incomplete information. There’s probably no need to try to figure out what Pep will do, so it’s a play-with-what-you-have/don’t-buy situation.
What we need to reassess in the remainder of the week are Arsenal players. The Gunners have nothing to play for, which raises the question of what their starting lineup will be.
Bukayo Saka is one of the highest-upside picks out there, and it seems pointless to figure out whether he will start or how many minutes he will get. He is likely to feature, and that should be enough if you have proper wiggle room to involve him in your team.
As for the other attacking players, we just don’t know yet. There is a genuine possibility that Kai Havertz will start, considering he came off the bench against Newcastle, making him a potentially attractive differential against the Southampton team on Sunday.
Whether Alexander Isak will start or not is one of the hottest topics this week. Again, at this point, it’s mostly a guessing game. You can imagine he wasn’t risked, as the Everton fixture is absolutely key, but it is a well-known fact that he has been carrying an injury for quite some time now, so it’s certainly not a guarantee.
Anthony Gordon played 90 minutes against Arsenal, and Harvey Barnes is also available, but in terms of differentials for chasing, I would still prefer someone like Justin Kluivert, an Arsenal/Brighton midfielder, or Luis Díaz.
You want to increase your chances of being involved in some haul.
If Branthwaite is injured, then I would be more inclined to go for it.
Last week, I expressed my excitement about Mohamed Salah’s prospects in GW38. The final game of the season at Anfield presents an excellent positional match-up, as Palace are allowing so many entries into the box through their left channel.
Additionally, Liverpool are by far the best team when it comes to quick transitions, whereas Palace often struggles against such teams.
Both sides are on the beach, and it promises to be an entertaining match.
West Ham and Brentford are straightforward. Jarrod Bowen, Bryan Mbeumo, and Yoane Wissa all make perfect sense, and you can feel pretty comfy with them. I wouldn’t consider any differentials from those teams, perhaps aside from Kevin Schade, who is about 5% owned among the top 100k.
Defenders: Are there any gems, or is it best to ignore them entirely?
I would say ignore DEF transfer in most scenarios, but you might find yourself in a situation where you see your team as "optimal" in other positions.
If that’s the case, aim for someone who can keep a clean sheet and score goals. It’s a rare event, but that’s how the punts work.
I believe Newcastle’s defence is exceptional this week. So far this calendar year, Everton have been ranked the 7th worst for xG conceded from set pieces, and if they are without both Tarkowski and Branthwaite, they will be vulnerable in the air.
Big man Dan Burn poses a constant threat from set pieces, and the same can be said for Fabian Schär.
Ipswich are absolutely horrid at defending set pieces—we all know that. However, West Ham are poor (the worst, really) at taking them, so I wouldn’t go there.
At the time of writing this, Mikel Arteta has already confirmed that both William Saliba and Jurriën Timber won’t feature in GW38, which opens up a route for others. Basically, anyone can score against the Saints, even defenders.
Ben White likes to take fairly advanced positions, so there’s certainly some potential. Additionally, I don’t mind a punt on Riccardo Calafiori—he has some good shots in him.
Therefore, I would prefer the defenders from Newcastle and Arsenal.
Regarding the others:
Milos Kerkez: Although he offers only a minimal goal threat, the potential for a clean sheet and assists offset this.
Marc Cucurella: A lot of touches in the penalty area and many good shots. The defence works pretty well, so I can easily envisage a haul scenario.
Rayan Aït-Nouri: Poor clean sheet odds, but he has been going berserk offensively lately. He runs, shoots from the box, creates chances from the open play, and takes set pieces. Relentless.