From Arsenal to Fulham: Complete guide for the upcoming FPL season, part 1
10 Premier League teams analysed from an FPL standpoint
Note: This newsletter is truncated in an email. You can click on "View entire message" to see the full post in your email app.
Alright friends.
We’re only 10 days away from the new Premier League season, so it’s the right moment to start pondering our Gameweek 1 drafts in more detail.
This week, I want to explore all 20 teams in detail to see:
Their strengths and weaknesses
How appealing their opening fixtures are
The best picks
The picks I don’t like and other potential caveats
What we need to pay attention to
It will be a two-part series, in which I will review each club in alphabetical order.
Next week, I plan to compile all my pre-season analysis into a single actionable guide.
And then, closer to the first deadline, I will conclude the pre-season with the first edition of the Thought Process series, where I will analyse my own team’s selection, my approach for the season, overall strategy, and various other insights you are accustomed to from the previous campaign.
Next week’s content will be more data-heavy. This should provide a broader perspective on things.
Okay, that’ll do for the intro—we have a lot to discuss.
Arsenal: Patience moves mountains
The summer transfer window is still far from over, but it’s safe to say that the Gunners have one of the most intriguing chains of arrivals.
Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyökeres will soon slot right into the starting eleven, while Christian Nørgaard, Cristhian Mosquera, and Noni Madueke provide much-needed depth, which is non-debatable for a title contender.
Still, there’s one major red flag hovering over the left-wing position, which feels a bit stale and probably lacks the proper X-factor. There’s still a chance that Noni Madueke (£7.0m) will deputise there, which would be a big thing in terms of FPL, but a lot is likely happening behind the scenes as we speak. It’s worth keeping an eye on any new developments (the transfer window shuts after GW3).
Having an eventful summer doesn’t necessarily mean there should be a lot of interest in their picks.
And being a fantastic player doesn’t always equate to being a viable pick.
FPL has its specific set of rules.
Including any Arsenal player in a Gameweek 1 draft seems pretty difficult, all things considered.
Firstly, the fixtures seem a bit tricky.
Not only do they face Liverpool, Forest, Manchester City, and Newcastle between Gameweeks 4 and 8, but there is also considerable uncertainty surrounding their team selection in the opening game against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Gabriel is recovering from a minor injury that prevented him from starting in the previous pre-season friendly against Spurs.
I’m not sure William Saliba offers a good combination of attacking threat and DEFCON points to justify paying £6.0m at the start of the season, given somewhat limited clean sheet odds.
Gyökeres recorded his first 14 minutes in the pre-season (remember, we are 10 days away from GW1), so his minutes might be questionable early in the season.
Cole Palmer, as a premium MID, benefits from a great set of opening fixtures, which makes Bukayo Saka more challenging to include from the start.
It all feels a bit disorganised at the moment.
They will, once again, be among the top defensive units in the Premier League. I’m not doubting that.
Saka, Gabriel, Gyökeres, and potentially some others will eventually emerge as viable picks.
🔋 Current status: Wait and see, largely
✅ Viable GW1 picks: Bukayo Saka as their most fixture-proof asset
❌ Picks to avoid: I suspect it might be Declan Rice with less attacking threat and fewer defensive contributions than expected. Plus, someone quickly emerges from the pool of “value midfielders” around that £6.5m price point.
📆 Fixture swing to attack: GW7
Things to watch:
🥇 Minutes for their key players early in the season
🥈 Who will play on the left wing
🥉 Viktor Gyökeres and his adaptation
Aston Villa: Deadly duo primed to start well
The Villains are quiet on the transfer market, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Especially when you consider they have one of the best fixture runs out there. You want that stability.
Still, I would be somewhat cautious, as the other players not named Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers are likely far from being nailed, despite Villa losing both Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio. That includes pre-season darling Donyell Malen, who could offer an amazing attacking upside for a meagre £5.5m.
There are still a lot of alternatives for how Unai Emery’s starting eleven can look with Rogers, Tielemans, Ramsay, McGinn, Bailey, and Buendía still present. It’s one to watch in the remainder of the pre-season—there’s still a lot of information to get.
Including Malen in an initial draft is a move that involves some degree of risk, but I understand the appeal. He is a player who has excelled in both goal-scoring and creating chances in the Bundesliga, and he could make a mockery of his price.
Both Watkins (£9.0m) and Rogers (£7.0m) are among the safest picks in the game, provided the former stays put. They are on the more expensive side, but I don’t mind it, as the fixtures dictated that decision from the game-makers. I would be very surprised if they didn’t consistently deliver points.
Additionally, they work well in tandem—last season, Rogers created double the xG for Watkins compared to the next player in line. This season, the gap could be even wider.
When it comes to Ezri Konsa (£4.5m), he’s one to consider. You can’t really go wrong for that price. Villa had a fantastic defensive run in the last 10 or so games of the 24/25 season, and they didn’t lose anyone important, so it’s probably a situation where you don’t lose much if it goes wrong, but get a great value if it works out.
Other defenders are prone to rotation.
🔋 Current status: Good to go
✅ Viable GW1 picks: Ollie Watkins (£9.0m), Morgan Rogers (£7.0m), Youri Tielemans (£6.0) and Ezri Konsa (£4.5m). Donyell Malen (£5.5m), possibly with more information to follow.
❌ Picks to avoid: All defenders except Ezri Konsa—there’s a lot of uncertainty.
📆 Fixture swing to attack: GW1
Things to watch:
🥇 Ollie Watkins and transfer rumours
🥈 Donyell Malen—his pre-season minutes, potential new arrivals
🥉 Morgan Rogers and his goal threat (aka is he priced properly at £7m in the long term?)
Bournemouth: I can see them doing well offensively
Illja Zabarnyj remains heavily linked with PSG, which would see their backline from last season dismantled—Kepa, Kerkez, Huijsen, and Zabarnyj, all gone. They replaced the first two with Djordje Petrovic and Adrien Truffert, who are good solutions, but losing centre-backs of such high quality is a pretty big deal, as you can imagine.
Although Cherries will surely buy a replacement(s), and their recruitment is good enough, it will take some time to click, so they will likely concede a pretty substantial volume of dangerous chances until about Christmas.
They are reportedly interested in Bafode Diakite (Lille), Koni De Winter (Genoa), Loïc Badé (Sevilla), or Jhon Lucumi (Bologna), so they might eventually do well. For now, however, let’s instead anticipate that the transition won’t be smooth.
When it comes to the attack, I’m much more optimistic. They might lose some control, but they won’t lose Andoni Iraola—their intense, counter-pressing, and attacking style stays.